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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Gave me goosebumps looking at this picture. I remember the mattresses in our house froze. That was a scary storm, I didn't sleep for 2 nights because of all the pine trees popping around the house. My dad worked for the DOT and he didn't come home for days. 

That is why a $500 investment in a generator is so worth it, even if its only used every other year!

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Heck I hope most of the 1.5million in the Triangle get in on the sleet more so than the a crushing ice storm.  A nice <.20 sleet-to-snow storm would be ok.>

Honestly that would be incredibly cool to watch play out as long as we got the pinger shift before getting into lights out territory. It’s gonna be wayyyyy too cold for dealing with that crap.


.

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Comparison here of the big 3 ensemble means at day 7...

GEFS has the least amount of ridging in the PNW and W Canada...is the slowest to move the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) lobe to the southeast and out of south-central Canada, and has the largest amount of SE ridging.  

GEPS is the other end of the spectrum with its stronger western ridging...more TPV movement out of Canada...less SE ridging

EPS is in between

My personal preference for the biggest hit across the forum would be in between the EPS and GEPS

Feb-4-Mod-Compare.gif

 

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The true Polar Vortex is completely shattered on the day 10 look from the Euro. It's broken off into several Lobes. Classic -AO look below. This bodes well for the rest of February IMO.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

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7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Checkout GSO obs from that storm. It mirrors Hickory pretty well. Once the precip changed over to SN and it started accumulating on the Ice, the trees just went down like flies. Then bitter cold for the next few days.

 

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/station_data?e=163&t=h&s=KGSO

I particularly like several entries of "unknown" p-type

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57 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Katie, bar the door! 

51299EBE-6497-4BD7-86FF-14DF5C881CB2.png

20% chance of heavy snow, that includes the blue ridge and smokies. 

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Comparison here of the big 3 ensemble means at day 7...

GEFS has the least amount of ridging in the PNW and W Canada...is the slowest to move the tropospheric polar vortex (TPV) lobe to the southeast and out of south-central Canada, and has the largest amount of SE ridging.  

GEPS is the other end of the spectrum with its stronger western ridging...more TPV movement out of Canada...less SE ridging

EPS is in between

My personal preference for the biggest hit across the forum would be in between the EPS and GEPS

Feb-4-Mod-Compare.gif

 

The less SE ridging the better for me, but I'm assuming you're hoping a bit of one amps up the storm a touch for more precip? It just seems like we started down a path today we didn't want to go down. Canadian is really the only one left with the PV in a great spot. :yikes:Hopefully overnight corrects. 

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS still has the storm late next week 

Dang it’s warm though. Mostly rain all of NC

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51 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

The less SE ridging the better for me, but I'm assuming you're hoping a bit of one amps up the storm a touch for more precip? It just seems like we started down a path today we didn't want to go down. Canadian is really the only one left with the PV in a great spot. :yikes:Hopefully overnight corrects. 

Yeah, think the biggest thing is the timing where the TPV has to drop down and drag the high pressure in behind it (or with it) before we have our storm move in.  Last night's Euro and a few of the GFS runs yesterday nailed it.  Others like this GFS run are a big miss

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

End result of this GFS run is almost identical to the storm that just hit the MA and NE. Almost exact same footprint. Warning signals are going off 

Will not miss this one. If that happens again, I will be there.

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8 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

the operational has some crazy daytime temperature solutions

image.thumb.png.e9cba5b0cede2c6d3a0f1c1e72b58b2b.png

If we rain and then get that kinda afterwards it’s going to be a kick in the groin 

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14 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

As long as the GFSENS hold, I couldnt care less what the OP says. 

The GEFS has been following the op imo. EPS took a step to it today too I think. Disappointed with the trends today. Im not one who believes that trends reverse or once the storm is lost it'll come back. But we'll see.

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3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Through 18z today there is no way to sugarcoat the trends from either the ops or the ensembles: they were not in our favor 

If you’re talking about the GFS then you’re not wrong.

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Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 

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7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 

The euro would be the worst winter storm in the Carolinas in a generation. I can’t figure out why people are so down.

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15 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Euro still looked fine and is a few minor tweaks from a major. Gfs sucks but is on an island compared to the euro, icon, and cmc 

Yesterday at 12z the euro had snow in savannah and today it had ice through North Carolina. Yes it trended better for a winter storm this run but it and it’s ensembles all trended faster and much more northwest and warmer. Would not take much to catch up to the GFS. It’s so early in the game it’s not panic time but another day of this is going to drive up my anxiety 

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The GFS/Euro are actually in pretty good agreement when you compare them through day 8 or 9. There's not a huge difference from the standpoint of the Northern Hemispheric pattern aloft. The main issue is the anomalous nature of what they're showing and how it's not likely statistically. That's the main thing we have going against us. How often do 1050mb Highs enter the Dakotas on the backside of a sub 490dm PV lobe in the great lakes? However, the AO is in serious neg' territory, so that lends credit to this. 

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Models are so erratic right now it’s best not to get emotionally invested. The trend for the upcoming weekend threat has been incredible. Still not confident in the outcome of that and it’s less than 72 hours out! At this rate won’t be surprised if it turns into an apps runner.

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19 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The euro would be the worst winter storm in the Carolinas in a generation. I can’t figure out why people are so down.

I would certainly lean Euro/EPS on getting the big picture right out in time given the heavy high latitude blocking pattern etc,  regardless of what outcome it is showing for us.  Not too worried about the current GFS unless the UKMET/Euro go in that direction.  I think the changes with the weekend storm are a bit separate (smaller scale features that all of the models are struggling with driving storm track changes). 

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