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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah too much of a good thing. This pattern can suck it. One of the biggest disappointments in recent years with blocking and such.

For whatever reason everyone forgets that the PNA drives the bus just as much for us as blocking.  In years where the Atlantic has been putrid when the Pacific gets good we can score something if even minimal, just like this year with a horrid Pacific and awesome Atlantic.  Personally I feel like the PNA is more important than the NAO, at least it feels like it the past 10 years.  Especially this year where it just goes to show you all the blocking in the world can’t get a widespread winter storm unless out West wants to cooperate.

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18 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

For whatever reason everyone forgets that the PNA drives the bus just as much for us as blocking.  In years where the Atlantic has been putrid when the Pacific gets good we can score something if even minimal, just like this year with a horrid Pacific and awesome Atlantic.  Personally I feel like the PNA is more important than the NAO, at least it feels like it the past 10 years.  Especially this year where it just goes to show you all the blocking in the world can’t get a widespread winter storm unless out West wants to cooperate.

Yeah you are right.  The Pacific can make us or break us. Blocking has helped us not torch all winter. If not for blocking in the NAO region we would have set a lot of records I believe with how crappy the Pacific has been. I think the EPO is just as important as the NAO with what you just alluded to. 

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I've taken a few days off from watching models and living vicariously through my sister, who's a student in Memphis. I asked for a lot of pictures, but the high today is supposed to be 12 (!?!?) , so i kind of doubt she's going to be leaving her apartment very much. Otherwise, I can't endorse nodding off before the 00z GFS thoroughly enough, my sleep has improved drastically. 

Anyway, I'm pretty concerned with the storm later this week. Another textbook CAD, but this one seems to be much more consistent in modeling. The reason some "superwedges" last weel that went all the way to Alabama didn't pan out is because the high began to trend north- the strength of the high doesn't matter if the pressure in that critical zone between eastern PA and central VA keep on ticking down 1-2 millibars per model run!  This cycle though, with a 1035-1037 being consistently modeled over the fingerlakes of NY, gives me more pause. This is when our "known errors" with CAD (cyclogenesis issues, temperature busts etc) can become a more powerful forecasting tool since the model high depiction is more reliable. Also somewhat concerning is the GFS muting the southeast ridge run after run- I think we're pretty close to seeing more pressure falls over the gulf stream help lock in a CAD. This has my attention now!

 

 

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17 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Nah I agree, it’s just crazy I feel like I’ve been hearing my entire life 29yrs old “Best Chance along and N of I-40” lmao 

Yeah it's just a climatology quirk. I will say though that I'm surprised that the outer regions haven't been bit by an ice storm in a while. The February 2014 storm featured a "super CAD" that gave my parents in Wilmington and others at that latitude a pretty legit ice storm; my neighbor's tree came down. Other 10 mile strips (like the 158 corridor on Saturday) have been nabbed by some 0.25-0.75 events in various transition zones. but there hasn't be a catastrophic 2002 redux that hits the "middle sections" hard in a while, and frankly I'm surprised those types of storms don't come more often since CAD can be so readymade. 

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3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Any sleet in this region?

Just going to throw this out there- there's a razor thin margin between sleet and ice that a lot of models won't be able to resolve. I think often what a model resolves as ice often verifies as sleet. In my opinion, I wouldn't necessarily take raw model outputs as gospel until the hours leading up to an event and there's a whole treasure trove of short range models (including hrrr) taking a crack at where each boundary will set up.

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4 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Just going to throw this out there- there's a razor thin margin between sleet and ice that a lot of models won't be able to resolve. I think often what a model resolves as ice often verifies as sleet. In my opinion, I wouldn't necessarily take raw model outputs as gospel until the hours leading up to an event and there's a whole treasure trove of short range models (including hrrr) taking a crack at where each boundary will set up.

Yeah, this is definitely a sleet sounding

gdps_2021021512_078_36.75--79.35.png

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30 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Yeah it's just a climatology quirk. I will say though that I'm surprised that the outer regions haven't been bit by an ice storm in a while. The February 2014 storm featured a "super CAD" that gave my parents in Wilmington and others at that latitude a pretty legit ice storm; my neighbor's tree came down. Other 10 mile strips (like the 158 corridor on Saturday) have been nabbed by some 0.25-0.75 events in various transition zones. but there hasn't be a catastrophic 2002 redux that hits the "middle sections" hard in a while, and frankly I'm surprised those types of storms don't come more often since CAD can be so readymade. 

It’s crazy the thin line, I grew up In Concord Mills /Speedway area, seemed so much different even just in Kannapolis/Landis/China Grove then I moved to Hwy150/801 Mt Ulla area and that’s even different than those areas. All 10 mile or so increments ..... and I remember 2002 front end thump of 1-2” of snow then power was out for a week after it changed that night to ice 

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