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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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11 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event.

In the next 84hrs Bull?  

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

It could definitely go that route. If you were going to ask me for a perfect scenario for a multi-day freezing drizzle event, this is pretty much it. Rare around these parts but so is the cold air 

That would be worse case scenario for car accidents. I remember light icing events where models and even the radar had trouble detecting the moisture and many roads and bridges becoming impassable. Again this seems like something we haven't seen in a while but can lead to many issues with travel. 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

Yeah, it's really the perfect recipe for a multi-day freezing rain event. 

Yeah, one thing that gives me extreme pause (like extreme pause) is how many impulses dive under the high from Thursday-Tuesday. While is does seem like most models are beginning to hone in on some "grand finale" type solution early next week, it seems inevitable that one of the prelude impulse will rise up and become slightly more amped/hold its integrity a little more and spread some more precipitation.

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22 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle.

Seems like it would be a mix of freezing drizzle and any heavier precip would be sleet based on soundings.

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1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

I like weather. One of the reasons I do, is many times over my long life in North Carolina it has been extreme.  An ice storm in 1967 that paralyzed NC for the better part of a month to the hurricanes. The snow storms, that time a half inch of grauple brought traffic in Raleigh to a stand still leaving hundreds of motorist stranded overnight.  Those times hold some very interesting memories , good and bad but I got something out of every event. 

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what we want or don't want it's going to be what it will be. The interest in interesting weather is why most are here I think. I know it is for me. 

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2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I like weather. One of the reasons I do, is many times over my long life in North Carolina it has been extreme.  An ice storm in 1967 that paralyzed NC for the better part of a month to the hurricanes. The snow storms, that time a half inch of grauple brought traffic in Raleigh to a stand still leaving hundreds of motorist stranded overnight.  Those times hold some very interesting memories , good and bad but I got something out of every event. 

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what we want or don't want it's going to be what it will be. The interest in interesting weather is why most are here I think. I know it is for me. 

Not many memories from 33 and rain but 25 and freezing rain will create an everlasting memory. I think for me it's something that takes the ordinary daily living away and for a day or two you can experience something that is extreme.

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Serious question:  What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday?  :wacko:  My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one.  LOL

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Serious question:  What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday?  :wacko:  My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one.  LOL

Some things you just don't want to risk!

TW

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Serious question:  What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday?  :wacko:  My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one.  LOL
Going by the ICON, a lot

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6 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Serious question:  What are the chances that a lot of Valentine’s deliveries will be messed up for Saturday?  :wacko:  My wife pulled the old “oh, don’t bother getting me anything” trick, but I’m not falling for that one.  LOL

I recommend you don't fall for that lol

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If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work  on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...."

 

No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) ;)

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Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east.

So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. 

floop-gfs-2021020912.sfct_b.conus.gif

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My older neighborhood in Charlotte is surrounded by massive pine with willow oak trees all around with atleast 20 50+ foot trees surrounding my property and backyard (with powerlines running through a line of trees) . A ice storm would absolutely devastate the area. All the established neighborhoods of Charlotte are very tree heavy.

I remember the terrible ice storm years bac in 2014 when I lived in High Point NC that knocked out power for 4+ days to most of the city.

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Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger over as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east.
So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. 
floop-gfs-2021020912.sfct_b.conus.gif.25ac15f00085513b23785b1b9a481700.gif
Question is, how far south the wedge will go...

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Question is, how far south the wedge will go...

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Hopefully NOT to Greenville SC!

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Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately 

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately 

we did have a few major wind events clear out some of the trees/branches plus I think the maintenance of trimming branches near power lines has improved since the last one but you are correct in that there is a lot of potential damage to be done.

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1 minute ago, adamant said:

we did have a few major wind events clear out some of the trees/branches plus I think the maintenance of trimming branches near power lines has improved since the last one but you are correct in that there is a lot of potential damage to be done.

Yea, but wind doesn’t stress a tree in the same manner. It doesn’t prune them like ice weight does. Any weakness will be exposed, particularly pines, but hardwoods will drop a lot of branches as well. Definitely a concern given the time period since our last significant ice event

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Longtime lurker here.  I just registered an account so I could ask a question.  You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter.  Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out?  Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage?

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1 minute ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said:

Longtime lurker here.  I just registered an account so I could ask a question.  You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter.  Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out?  Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage?

8-ball-header-300x250.jpg

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