Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

[BullCityWx]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

06gfs

[Orangeburgwx]

This could end up being a multi-day ice on ice event for some.  Very little melting going on. Tenths upon tenths of zr.  This long duration event would easily rival the tree damage I experienced back in 2002.  Pray for sleet but go ahead and buy your gennie now if you ever wanted one. This is U..G..L..Y! 

Not to mention the number 1 rule of winter


Models ALWAYS underestimate CAD and overdo WAA, I think even SC is going to hit the ice city bingo like the 0Z Euro showed

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[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Would rather have cold rain than ice and sleet.

[adamant]

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Would rather have cold rain than ice and sleet.

Sleet is fine - almost like snow  - but ice is not good - sleet will not destroy trees and cut power - ice will. I am fine with snow/sleet - but if it is freezing rain - then cold rain is much much preferred.

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

This coming week or so has had my spidy senses all tingly. Figures it would be icy   Buckle up buttercup! It’s gonna be an interesting ride as we head into next week.

[BullCityWx]

6z EPS is slightly colder for Saturday and would indicate an icy mess from Winston to N&W of 40/85 in Orange/Durham.

[PackGrad05]

24 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Not to mention the number 1 rule of winter


Models ALWAYS underestimate CAD and overdo WAA, I think even SC is going to hit the ice city bingo like the 0Z Euro showed

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I feel like this season they have underestimated so far... at least for the 2 CAD icing events we've had.

[Orangeburgwx]

I feel like this season they have underestimated so far... at least for the 2 CAD icing events we've had.

Underestimated what, the warm nose?

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[ILMRoss]

Before we really get absorbed into this I want everyone to take a really deep breath and think about how many different solutions guidance has thrown out at us in the 160-180hr range over the last week. It has been a kaleidoscope of possibilities. Current setup looks daunting but I’m not too perturbed... yet (I am eating all the seafood in my freezer this week though, just in case)

[tarheelwx]

Here in the triad, the CAD events so far this year have been less than impressive to say the least.  I'd say within the final 48 hours of the event, surface temps if anything verifies 1 or 2 degrees warmer than modeled.  We'll be dealing with different air this time - much denser and more apt to drain in.

TW

[BornAgain13]

This is getting interesting really quick , especially after the Thursday night system...

[PackGrad05]

13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Underestimated what, the warm nose?

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The extent and strength of the CAD.  I meant to say overestimated.

[PantherJustin]

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

Guess it just depends on which you enjoy most, extreme weather or having your lights on.  

[Orangeburgwx]

Guess it just depends on which you enjoy most, extreme weather or having your lights on.  

I rather have lights and rain at 33 than in the dark for 2 weeks

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[burrel2]

Euro would be predominantly sleet for the upstate and most of North Carolina. Check out the frigid 925mb temps.

[BullCityWx]

2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro would be predominantly sleet for the upstate and most of North Carolina. Check out the frigid 925mb temps.

Yep

[buckeyefan1]

7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Before we really get absorbed into this I want everyone to take a really deep breath and think about how many different solutions guidance has thrown out at us in the 160-180hr range over the last week. It has been a kaleidoscope of possibilities. Current setup looks daunting but I’m not too perturbed... yet (I am eating all the seafood in my freezer this week though, just in case)

I thought about that too, but decided if I get shut in, I’ll make a huge pot of my famous Frogmore stew     
 

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The extent and strength of the CAD.  I meant to say overestimated.

I can only remember one classic cad early on this winter with the rest being insitu. I’m probably wrong because I haven’t paid your area too much attention 

 

7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

I don’t mind one as long as it is under .30 of ice 

[Dunkman]

14 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 

If I didn’t have falling trees to worry about them probably. I rooted for hurricanes growing up on the coast as well.

That would be one heck of a sleet storm if the soundings are right. I remember getting about 1.5” of qpf as sleet a few years ago and it was wild. We ended up with like a 20” iceberg on the back deck from where the sleet would funnel down the roof.

[Orangeburgwx]

6z ENS came in way warmer (this is in Celsius)

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[CaryWx]

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

 

I don’t mind one as long as it is under .30 of ice 

.30 eh?  You risk some 18th century living experiences with that.

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

.30 eh?  You risk some 18th century living experiences with that.

I like living on the edge  

[BullCityWx]

It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event.

[BullCityWx]

Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event.

It's been picking up on that feature behind the initial push of moisture. Could lead to a decent amount of icing, as the precip isn't particularly heavy.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

It's been picking up on that feature behind the initial push of moisture. Could lead to a decent amount of icing, as the precip isn't particularly heavy.

Yeah, it's really the perfect recipe for a multi-day freezing rain event. 

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle.

Maybe today the trend will be for a 2nd batch of precip building in during the early morning hours on Saturday. With the frigid airmass to our north slowly sinking in this would possibly lead to a lot of light freezing drizzle/sleet that might be more extensive than the models are detecting. 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Sleet>zr

[Orangeburgwx]

It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event.

NC only?

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[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, WXNewton said:

Maybe today the trend will be for a 2nd batch of precip building in during the early morning hours on Saturday. With the frigid airmass to our north slowly sinking in this would possibly lead to a lot of light freezing drizzle/sleet that might be more extensive than the models are detecting. 

It could definitely go that route. If you were going to ask me for a perfect scenario for a multi-day freezing drizzle event, this is pretty much it. Rare around these parts but so is the cold air