BullCityWx Posted February 9 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: 06gfs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9 This could end up being a multi-day ice on ice event for some. Very little melting going on. Tenths upon tenths of zr. This long duration event would easily rival the tree damage I experienced back in 2002. Pray for sleet but go ahead and buy your gennie now if you ever wanted one. This is U..G..L..Y! Not to mention the number 1 rule of winterModels ALWAYS underestimate CAD and overdo WAA, I think even SC is going to hit the ice city bingo like the 0Z Euro showedSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 9 Would rather have cold rain than ice and sleet. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
adamant Posted February 9 Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Would rather have cold rain than ice and sleet. Sleet is fine - almost like snow - but ice is not good - sleet will not destroy trees and cut power - ice will. I am fine with snow/sleet - but if it is freezing rain - then cold rain is much much preferred. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: This coming week or so has had my spidy senses all tingly. Figures it would be icy Buckle up buttercup! It’s gonna be an interesting ride as we head into next week. 4 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 6z EPS is slightly colder for Saturday and would indicate an icy mess from Winston to N&W of 40/85 in Orange/Durham. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted February 9 24 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Not to mention the number 1 rule of winter Models ALWAYS underestimate CAD and overdo WAA, I think even SC is going to hit the ice city bingo like the 0Z Euro showed Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk I feel like this season they have underestimated so far... at least for the 2 CAD icing events we've had. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9 I feel like this season they have underestimated so far... at least for the 2 CAD icing events we've had.Underestimated what, the warm nose?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ILMRoss Posted February 9 Before we really get absorbed into this I want everyone to take a really deep breath and think about how many different solutions guidance has thrown out at us in the 160-180hr range over the last week. It has been a kaleidoscope of possibilities. Current setup looks daunting but I’m not too perturbed... yet (I am eating all the seafood in my freezer this week though, just in case) 5 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tarheelwx Posted February 9 Here in the triad, the CAD events so far this year have been less than impressive to say the least. I'd say within the final 48 hours of the event, surface temps if anything verifies 1 or 2 degrees warmer than modeled. We'll be dealing with different air this time - much denser and more apt to drain in. TW 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BornAgain13 Posted February 9 This is getting interesting really quick , especially after the Thursday night system... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackGrad05 Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Underestimated what, the warm nose? Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk The extent and strength of the CAD. I meant to say overestimated. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PantherJustin Posted February 9 Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather 2 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather Guess it just depends on which you enjoy most, extreme weather or having your lights on. 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9 Guess it just depends on which you enjoy most, extreme weather or having your lights on. I rather have lights and rain at 33 than in the dark for 2 weeksSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
burrel2 Posted February 9 Euro would be predominantly sleet for the upstate and most of North Carolina. Check out the frigid 925mb temps. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Euro would be predominantly sleet for the upstate and most of North Carolina. Check out the frigid 925mb temps. Yep Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Before we really get absorbed into this I want everyone to take a really deep breath and think about how many different solutions guidance has thrown out at us in the 160-180hr range over the last week. It has been a kaleidoscope of possibilities. Current setup looks daunting but I’m not too perturbed... yet (I am eating all the seafood in my freezer this week though, just in case) I thought about that too, but decided if I get shut in, I’ll make a huge pot of my famous Frogmore stew 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The extent and strength of the CAD. I meant to say overestimated. I can only remember one classic cad early on this winter with the rest being insitu. I’m probably wrong because I haven’t paid your area too much attention 7 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather I don’t mind one as long as it is under .30 of ice 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dunkman Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Am I the only person who actually would like an ice storm? Yes I lived thru 2002. I just like extreme weather If I didn’t have falling trees to worry about them probably. I rooted for hurricanes growing up on the coast as well. That would be one heck of a sleet storm if the soundings are right. I remember getting about 1.5” of qpf as sleet a few years ago and it was wild. We ended up with like a 20” iceberg on the back deck from where the sleet would funnel down the roof. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9 6z ENS came in way warmer (this is in Celsius)Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaryWx Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I don’t mind one as long as it is under .30 of ice .30 eh? You risk some 18th century living experiences with that. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: .30 eh? You risk some 18th century living experiences with that. I like living on the edge 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
olafminesaw Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event. It's been picking up on that feature behind the initial push of moisture. Could lead to a decent amount of icing, as the precip isn't particularly heavy. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 Just now, olafminesaw said: It's been picking up on that feature behind the initial push of moisture. Could lead to a decent amount of icing, as the precip isn't particularly heavy. Yeah, it's really the perfect recipe for a multi-day freezing rain event. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WXNewton Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Also tries hard to have mostly sleet N&W of 85 in the triad and triangle. Maybe today the trend will be for a 2nd batch of precip building in during the early morning hours on Saturday. With the frigid airmass to our north slowly sinking in this would possibly lead to a lot of light freezing drizzle/sleet that might be more extensive than the models are detecting. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 9 Sleet>zr 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted February 9 It looks like the NAM is showing a multi-day ice event.NC only?Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BullCityWx Posted February 9 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Maybe today the trend will be for a 2nd batch of precip building in during the early morning hours on Saturday. With the frigid airmass to our north slowly sinking in this would possibly lead to a lot of light freezing drizzle/sleet that might be more extensive than the models are detecting. It could definitely go that route. If you were going to ask me for a perfect scenario for a multi-day freezing drizzle event, this is pretty much it. Rare around these parts but so is the cold air Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites