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WinterWxLuvr

Christmas Eve Mega Front Disco/Obs

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

I'm struggling to understand the severe warning, as while that's an impressive feature on radar, it shouldn't be surface-based and therefore unable to get the winds to the ground.      But I'm prepared to be wrong....

Might be issuing on the condition that downdrafts are able to tap  and bring some of the momentum from that ramping LLJ to the ground. Haven't seen any ground reports that suggest that's happening right now though. My gust spreads here have been large even in the absence of precip so far -- so it seems possible.

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Its a natural law that we have the crappiiest weather imaginable each and every Christmas.   

Complain about 65F and sunny??  Well then, I give you 50s and flooding rains .... and then I will give you miserable wind and the cold that you needed several hours earlier.

Light rain currently.  Foggy and gross.

Merry Christmas. 

 

 

I always think of Christmas as a boy when I wanted to try out my new bike, skateboard, or sports stuff. Some kids will have to wait one more day or 2.

Merry Xmas, all!

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Might be issuing on the condition that downdrafts are able to tap  and bring some of the momentum from that ramping LLJ to the ground. Haven't seen any ground reports that suggest that's happening right now though. My gust spreads here have been large even in the absence of precip so far -- so it seems possible.

         Yeah, that's fair.     It just feels like LWX likes to warn on these things a lot, and the false alarm rate is super high.     For this event, I'd rather wait for a report to come in before pulling the trigger, although it's easy for me to say that without my neck on the line.

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3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Might be issuing on the condition that downdrafts are able to tap  and bring some of the momentum from that ramping LLJ to the ground. Haven't seen any ground reports that suggest that's happening right now though. My gust spreads here have been large even in the absence of precip so far -- so it seems possible.

Pretty 'warm" at the surface here. 63. Rain on the doorstep. With that strong LLJ, maybe some of those winds could mix down? Already had some random gusts earlier when the sun was peaking through the clouds.

 

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Latest from Mount Holly on wind potential-

Winds between 925 mb-850 mb will average 85-95 kt tonight, and with heavy rain and a tight pressure gradient, a good deal of those winds will mix down, especially along the coastal areas. Even back towards southeast Pennsylvania, the LLJ will average 75-85 kt winds. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect for most of the areas, but will make one change. Currently expecting 60-70 mph winds along the barrier island of New Jersey and into coastal portions of mainland New Jersey, as well into Sussex county, Delaware. Will upgrade from Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning there. For the rest of the region, maximum wind gusts will range from 45-55 mph.

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4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

Heavy line just hit me east of IAD. Absolutely POURING rain... weather station says .28” in the last 10 minutes. 

You must be close to me. I'm in Herndon and measured about 0.3" give or take in 5 minutes.

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You know the at little blob just south of DC did move north slightly but it’s still stubbornly there.  What is that some ULL action?  And why there?  Just it f*** with me

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3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What's more depressing is the snow along our front looks like it won't make it to our area.

Most guidance has areas west of Frederick getting a brief change over overnight .That's been consistent on most models for days  All of us have a 50/50 shot tomorrow for snow showers. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Snowing in Atlanta Georgia per radar 

Makes sense. Still think something in the flurry family will make it up here.  Faith in the flakes.  

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