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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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4 minutes ago, Zde4 said:

Alright, big snow fan since middle school...moved up to upstate NY 3 years ago for grad school and have been consistently disappointed with the Ithaca/lower Finger Lakes region. Considering coming home to ride out this storm as a last “hooray” before I start my job in January. As much as I hate “what’s-happening-in-my-back-yard” posts, if I’m around the red dot, slightly north and west of york, I should be a lock for at least 15 right? It’s almost a 4 hour drive down and I need like at least an 85% chance to take the risk and time.

D7185FDA-A425-49C0-9AF8-4F04CA493EFB.jpeg

How much for Philly?

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6 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

Why would I go there? They don’t even seem to have a storm thread? I hate upstate NY!You all think it’s so great but it’s the worst (unless you’re in Syracuse). I’d even take my chances in Annapolis before Ithaca! 
 

Moving to philly in a couple weeks and I’ll gladly switch teams then LMAO. 

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not so much west as north. It depends where the low sets up. Pretty good agreement from the euro/gfs that is gonna be Front Royal and north. I know the guys to the east want the low further east. But for us a  track over Norfolk is ideal. 

Been thinking the same thing....That tucked look and location is our benchmark. 

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9 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Yes its the NAM, but through 36 it has some better confluence and heights along the east coast.

Yeah also looks maybe a bit cooler at 850 but a tad warmer at the surface. If it makes any noticeable SE tick I'll be feeling much better though, really just want to see the path. Anything to suggest the Euro and CMC will cave to the GFS...

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1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said:

The usual caveats with a NAM at 57, but it is slightly colder at the surface in the cities this run.  Low is still in the same general area as last few runs.

the NAM used to run to 48 hours probably for a reason

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12km, so not as useful as the incoming 3km, but the run was better. Low is still too far NW but not running up the bay like in 06z. Snow totals still bad. Looks like mostly sleet in the totals on tropical tidbits. But a tick in the right direction, even for a less useful model is nice.

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Just ignore the 12k and wait for the 3k to get into range. It’s a better performer. 

3k tracks the low west of Norfolk too.

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z NAM 7pm Wed. Also cooler compared to 6Z. And falls SE of DC by 10 pm 

 

 

 

Problem is that the 850 low runs north of DC.

There is a realistic potential that areas inside the DC Beltway get non-accumulating snow on the front end and miss the deformation on the back end.  Trace is absolutely in play.

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