Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Active mid December with multiple event potential


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. 

The NAM at least used to be pretty good at not falling for those, and it does have it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro.  What is the point of having these other models then?  Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS.

He didn't actually mention the models that he was using to create the two maps... maybe it was a blend? Maybe it was one specific one vs a blend?  I don't know

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That exited stage right towards the convection to the east after it looked like it was going to be a better run.

image.png.e7d8eaa70fb509703313fd009816a974.png

image.png.bcf69bdd1d1eb941fb0136fb479933ea.png

 

Same as GFS and gefs

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What a cave to the GFS, we have a new King

Not yet but the Nam has also been going east. Feeling the confluence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

He's not wrong about a likely sharp cutoff. And he may not be wrong about where it sets up. What people think he's wrong about is his level of certainty about it.

If he's right and he's certain---well....

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Or he called in a favor with the Big Man.

He knows Joe Biden?

  • Like 3
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

The run smacks of seeing something gfs always did. And it’s so damn creepy 

I guess...this evolution of gaining latitude to a point and then just splitting east has been the theme for a while. It's about how much latitude it gains. That run did it what, 40-50 miles south of 12z? I think that's still easily within the spread of the ensembles.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I see that too, But I do think  that is something to think about as this occludes and drives some convection at least to the east. It's not going to change what I have out, but I'm watching it.

If it’s legit then we should see the non-hydrostatic models start doing it even more than the hydrostatics as we get closer. So those will be the ones to watch.

Deep convection like that will be handled worse by the hydrostatic models. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...