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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

1034 HP anchored over Southern Quebec...might even be sunny in most of NNE...

080E584B-EE67-4050-BB18-64936AE0559D.png

That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly.

Although the CMC was pretty cold too. To be honest I've stopped looking at it.

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's the feature where it seems like the GFS may have been overdoing it compared to most other guidance, re how far south and strong that cold pushes. We will see if it corrects here shortly.

The teleconnections support the GFS, imo.

Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach.

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I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking.  1035 in Quebec is strong but.... 

Seems like the keys for us up here are:

1.  strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north.  wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78?

2.  if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature.  I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out.  However, I am weeniologist...

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The teleconnections support the GFS, imo.

Where the arctic is tappable it will be effin cold. And the heart of it just so happens to be closest to NNE at the storms closest approach.

Sometimes you almost just have to go with history on these things if you look at the EPS/NAM solution it would indicate New York City goes snow-rain-snow.  When have we ever seen a storm with this type of set up do that in New York City? Either they stay all snow or they go snow to rain and stay rain and does anyone think that this could stay far enough west where they flipped to rain and that’s it?  I just don’t see it given the pattern so I’m leaning in the direction of something splitting the difference of the GEFS EPS.   I feel confident both models are too far west and east respectively 

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I dunno, but it doesn't seem like overwhelming blocking.  1035 in Quebec is strong but.... 

Seems like the keys for us up here are:

1.  strong shortwave will tend to try to tuck and will be muscular pushing north.  wasn't there a 1050 high on top of '78?

2.  if things are on the slower side, more time for the 50-50 to move since it isn't a stuck feature.  I don't think a 1035 without a stationery 50-50 and a strong GL block is enough to just shove it out.  However, I am weeniologist...

Good questions.
 

My Basis—H5 shows lack of downstream ridging  across guidance over eastern CONUS. At same time, the surface Canadian HP appears more sprawling/building rather than retreating...

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from Walt Drag in the NYC forum re the NAM (his comments bolded at bottom):

  39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.


F897CC3D-7609-40A7-8398-7A1C84A17E97.thumb.gif.b670c250fd86e09b17a5c55e11b7dab6.gif

Absolutely!  The questions continue going forward,  will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

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