Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

With the NAM, I reviewed the Skew-T's for some sneaky warm-layers.

We need to keep an eye on the 725-775 MB levels near the coast, as that is where it will go above freezing, if at all.

I pulled a point over LI for reference, and while the 18z briefly got that layer above freezing, the 00z never did, so it was definitively colder with no (or very, very minimal) sleet on Central LI. 

I saw the RGEM is a monster hit as well.

Models always underdo CAD at the surface... though they also tend to underdo mid-level warming, so that's definitely something to keep a close eye on

Yes-we want to keep an eye on where the mid level lows track. We definitely want the 700/850 lows to track SE of us. 

[Burrito27]

1 minute ago, The Plowsman said:

Generac.

I help install Generac Generators. If you can afford them, they are great. 

[kat5hurricane]

Hoo Boy. That rgem should wake up some weenies.

[SnoSki14]

Yeah that was nice lol

Good to see the Icon wake up. That high is really quite something and it'll act as a brick wall and help squeeze as much moisture as possible.

Someone's gonna see 20"+ 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS still not budging, this run might even be more surpressed.

[SI Mailman]

GFS looks out to lunch again

[jdj5211]

GFS is ugly...gives more snow to SNJ and the coast than NNJ and Hudson valley. Almost opposite of RGEM....

[jdj5211]

It’s pretty wild how you can have models with 18-24 inches and then models with 3-6 inches in the same location 3 days out...it’s either way out to lunch or going to score a massive win (hopefully not)

[SI Mailman]

[TriPol]

I would trust the Ukie/Euro/GEM over the GooFuS any day. GFS will come around 24 hours before the storm.

[HeadInTheClouds]

00z Score card for mid HV :  

Nam 24

RGEM 16

ICON 13

GFS 1

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I would trust the Ukie/Euro/GEM over the GooFuS any day. GFS will come around 24 hours before the storm.

Hopefully the others won't come around to GFS from my location.  Otherwise, I take my one inch and learn to like it? 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Can’t ignore the consistency from the gfs

Yes you can. Euro, CMC have been consistent too

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I would trust the Ukie/Euro/GEM over the GooFuS any day. GFS will come around 24 hours before the storm.

100 %

[sferic]

Who is up to at least 1am for the 00z Euro?

[NJsnow89]

All players are on the field now so it’s possible we may see more changes 

[HeadInTheClouds]

I was wrong about the GFS I must admit. I predicted it would give me 2 but it gave me 1. 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS is not even warning level snow at HPN. That's not going to happen in this kind of setup.  

[MJO812]

Big hit cmc

[WarrenCtyWx]

From near 12-20" on the NAM and Euro to barely 3" for me in Northern Warren County on the GFS. Lol.

[SnoSki14]

I'll take a GFS/Nam combo please.

[KeithB]

3 minutes ago, sferic said:

Who is up to at least 1am for the 00z Euro?

Me. Infact, this entire week is going to be very sleep deprived due to this storm. No shot I can go to bed before the 00z any of these nights, plus...Wednesday night will be an all nighter!

[Rjay]

Lol good lord.  The CMC 

[HVSnowLover]

Wow at the rates on the CMC   

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I was wrong about the GFS I must admit. I predicted it would give me 2 but it gave me 1. 

You'll like the CMC, absolutely crushes the HV

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS is not even warning level snow at HPN. That's not going to happen in this kind of setup.  

At least right now, the higher resolution models might do better with the confluence. The GFS should probably be discounted right now.

[White Gorilla]

18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

You'll like the CMC, absolutely crushes the HV

How good is the CMC in terms of verification score at this range? 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

At least right now, the higher resolution models might do better with the confluence. The GFS should probably be discounted right now.

It's a clear outlier and will likely play catch up for a while. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

How good is the CMC in terms of verification score at this range? 

I'm going to guess 4th place behind the Euro, Ukie and GFS.  It's been that way for years.  

 

Someone should post it if they have it though.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

How good is the CMC in terms of verification score at this range? 

At 72 and 120 hours, it ranks somewhat ahead of the GFS on 500 mb verification scores.