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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s just another model these days, that’s all. 

Certainly in this storm it is. I feel like at this point given the volatility in model solutions, we just treat them all as ensemble members. I’d give the euro more weight than models like the RGEM at 72+ hours but definitely not biting on it hook, line, and sinker. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Certainly in this storm it is. I feel like at this point given the volatility in model solutions, we just treat them all as ensemble members. I’d give the euro more weight than models like the RGEM at 72+ hours but definitely not biting on it hook, line, and sinker. 

That run phased earlier then any of the other runs thus far.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Certainly in this storm it is. I feel like at this point given the volatility in model solutions, we just treat them all as ensemble members. I’d give the euro more weight than models like the RGEM at 72+ hours but definitely not biting on it hook, line, and sinker. 

Yup. Another season of big swings incoming...buckle up wieners. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol at the euro. It makes swings like the NAM now. What in the hell is it doing?

Looks like some of the 12z ensemble members that gave the Adirondacks two feet.

Not that surprising... the ensemble spread was from like ROC/MSS jack to a CAR jack.  Anywhere between was fair game :lol:.

5144E8D3-F658-4D08-9280-3AE5734E5E2C.thumb.png.a1a48ad6cd69d7cb878b73986a271c7c.png

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