moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would think NW CT is going to Jack in the state, but seems like solid accumulating snow for many I'm glad I'm NW of the Pike/495 junction per that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 We Walt 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Good Thursday morning everyone, (Dec 3), Think it's soon going to be watch time for a HIGH Impact Multiple hazard event in our NYC forum. Topic initial discussion is a baseline start but I have to trend a little stronger confidence on probably more substantial impacts than initially framed. My main question now...track of the surface lows and a little uncertainty on the speed. The 00z/3 cycle has trended northwest and GEFS is coming into much closer alignment with the EPS regarding the developing closed low 850MB-500MB. Power and Snow: It seems to me a significant amount of power outages are in the offing for portions of the I84 corridor, especially high terrain, Saturday from a combination of wet snow exceeding 4" and north or northwest wind gusts of 35-45MPH. Meanwhile, for LI-southern CT, and possibly coastal NJ power outages similar or a bit more than 11/30, would be from initially east-northeast wind gusts of 45-55 mph with a back side burst late Saturday. Wind gusts "may" reach ~65 MPH on eastern LI. That will be my max. Max snowfall in our area: northwest fringe along or north of I84 certainly can exceed half a foot-don't want to get too confident on this yet... we still have tracking disagreement. Some models favor n CT/interior MA and others, I think more accurately, Poconos northeastward to the Litchfield Hills of nw CT- Berkshires. NYC: Snow accumulations may occur at the tail end Saturday night or early Sunday to within 10 miles of NYC, and even NYC could see a flurry or period of wet snow. Flooding: My guess based on MMEFS and the likelihood of 1.5-3" of qpf over the vulnerable NJ basins along and northwest of I95, that flooding will occur on all rivers and streams that occurred on 11/30-12/1 and add a few more rivers. Thunder could occur in our area during rapid intensification Saturday. Did we miss anything? 507A/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EWEATHER Great--we've got consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We Walt A betting man would be saying 'congrats, Mitch'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We Walt Is Walt still working for NWS these days? I remember him back in the early 90's working out of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Decent changes at H5 between 00z GEFS and the 06z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MarkO said: Is Walt still working for NWS these days? I remember him back in the early 90's working out of BOS. Retired... have a little FB group for hazardous winter wx and the NYC forum. Still have to be careful. My recent sense on modeling... when NAM and EC op are in agreement, that's a good sign for their combined impact. AND.. I want to the have the GGEM sort of close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Decent changes at H5 between 00z GEFS and the 06z GEFS. 90Left of the 850 LOW...that's a start on max axis (provided cold enough)... nothing has changed since that was uncovered decades ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Retired... have a little FB group for hazardous winter wx and the NYC forum. Still have to be careful. My recent sense on modeling... when NAM and EC op are in agreement, that's a good sign for their combined impact. AND.. I want to the have the GGEM sort of close. Awesome, congrat's on your retirement Walt. Always looked forward to your discussions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, wdrag said: Retired... have a little FB group for hazardous winter wx and the NYC forum. Still have to be careful. My recent sense on modeling... when NAM and EC op are in agreement, that's a good sign for their combined impact. AND.. I want to the have the GGEM sort of close. Please try and post as often as you are able in our forum . Your input is sincerely appreciated ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Please try and post as often as you are able in our forum . Your input is sincerely appreciated ! Tissue time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The NAM has 150m height falls in 9 hrs. That’s really impressive at 500mb. That’s when stuff “happens.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I'm guessing that the 12z Euro run will be an important one ( I think the NAM use right before ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tissue time? tears or excitement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro with a nuke over cape cod bay. East of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Absolute nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Crush job for NH and Maine just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Absolute nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 That would crush to about hubby and maybe ORH on north and east. Gets snow into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro with a nuke over cape cod bay. East of 00z. Looks Namish...Elevations seem like they have a pretty good shot at accumulations if this track were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That would crush to about hubby and maybe ORH on north and east. Gets snow into CT. Just a huge isothermal area of wet snow. 850mb and 925mb are just barely cold enough under the intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Crush job for NH and Maine just off the coast. Very close to some fun for eastern ma as it exists stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Little bump east on the euro there. If we can get the consensus on this thing to be near the elbow of the cape or just slightly east, that puts a lot of SNE in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 yes, please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just a huge isothermal area of wet snow. 850mb and 925mb are just barely cold enough under the intense precip. Yeah where you get several inches or more, your taking ‘em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Very close to some fun for eastern ma as it exists stage right. Maybe, I don’t expect much at all unless it’s a nuke off Chatham. Just fun to actually track something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Dreamt about the BC-Miami game. Keep seeing Hail Mary’s completed and at the end I saw pope chuckling shaking his head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That would crush to about hubby and maybe ORH on north and east. Gets snow into CT. We rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 When there is this much uncertainty in models I just assume it won’t work out well. But the Euro-nam thing does have a history so I guess this could be a big interior cne nne storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe, I don’t expect much at all unless it’s a nuke off Chatham. Just fun to actually track something decent. I don’t either, but we are flirting with a few scenarios that would get accumulating snow into this area. Low chance obviously, but non zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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