December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

This is a kind of interesting product. Really puts a dash in hopes for surface temps to cooperate fully outside of the mountains, at least with this run. 

[nj2va]

While the run of the GFS looks great for Deep Creek, I’d rather it move 75 miles east so it gets most of the forum in on a good storm.  Judging by the mood in here, we definitely need it.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

New GEFS has more reasonable divergence I believe. @high risk can confirm or deny. 

   Definitely much more dispersive than the previous version of the GEFS.

[NorthArlington101]

This might ease some concerns. GFS itself is an outlier. Trended warmer, but there aren't lows over the Potomac. Guessing that one member just south of D.C. might be messing with some of the ens data.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is funny. Through 90hrs, I would have definitely said it would be a better outcome for us than 12z even. CAD is stronger, weaker OH valley primary, confluence a tick more, and shortwave deeper. 

I think the reason it comes so far inland is maybe the shortwave becomes negatively tilted a little sooner than we’d prefer? I don’t see much else. All within the range of possibility I guess. 

The jump due north between 96-102 is odd imo.

[WxUSAF]

^nice pull @NorthArlington101. Op definitely looks like a western outlier. Mouth of the bay to east of OCMD is classic. 

[SnowLover22]

reverse jinx someone start a thread 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

While the run of the GFS looks great for Deep Creek, I’d rather it move 75 miles east so it gets most of the forum in on a good storm.  Judging by the mood in here, we definitely need it.

We have time and the 18z Euro up next.  Maybe I set the bar too high...first flakes would be great

[Buddy1987]

Just now, BristowWx said:

We have time and the 18z Euro up next.  Maybe I set the bar too high...first flakes would be great

I’m still sticking to my 3” bar so I don’t get disappointed out this way with expectation we switch to sleet or freezing rain as waa comes up over top 

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

We have time and the 18z Euro up next.  Maybe I set the bar too high...first flakes would be great

18z euro goes out to 90 hours. Should be enough to see if it was following the western gfs.

[osfan24]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Low goes over St Mary’s MD. That’ll do it. 

Yep, gotta just hope that's a drunk happy hour run. Needs to be off OCMD. That position will make most get out the canoe.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The jump due north between 96-102 is odd imo.

Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted. 

[PCT_ATC]

So, where have @Bob Chill and @showmethesnow been?  

[BristowWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I’m still sticking to my 3” bar so I don’t get disappointed out this way with expectation we switch to sleet or freezing rain as waa comes up over top 

Yes.  But again I just don’t see a ZR event.  I could be wrong but if the low is west it will erode the low level cold enough to get the Piedmont above 32.  We don’t have a 1045 over Albany with -25F temps bleeding down the apps.  This is rain or snow with thin layer of sleet somewhere.  It’s all about the low placement now.  I toggled back the last 3 GFS runs and west run means it pushed the cold and snow west.  Still time.  Let’s watch and not get invested.  

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This might ease some concerns. GFS itself is an outlier. Trended warmer, but there aren't lows over the Potomac. Guessing that one member just south of D.C. might be messing with some of the ens data.

Wow, a few of those members are really skewing things. Most of those lows are in fantastic locations.

[peribonca]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Wow, a few of those members are really skewing things. Most of those lows are in fantastic locations.

If anything that looks further EAST than 12z

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Yes.  But again I just don’t see a ZR event.  I could be wrong but if the low is west it will erode the low level cold enough to get the Piedmont above 32.  We don’t have a 1045 over Albany with -25F temps bleeding down the apps.  This is rain or snow with thin layer of sleet somewhere.  It’s all about the low placement now.  I toggled back the last 3 GFS runs and west run means it pushed the cold and snow west.  Still time.  Let’s watch and not get invested.  

I’m not sure it’s too late to share the same sentiment with you  

[Weather Will]

18Z WB GEFS Snow maps, percentages went down across the board, except for the over 18 inches...not set in stone yet either way...lots of good indiv members still.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This might ease some concerns. GFS itself is an outlier. Trended warmer, but there aren't lows over the Potomac. Guessing that one member just south of D.C. might be messing with some of the ens data.

That is good to see! Interesting to see the GEFS more consistent than the EPS. 

[clskinsfan]

One thing I noticed on the 18Z runs is the storm has slowed down. That gives the HP time to move to the northeast. Which brings the upper level winds in from the due south. That sucks for all of us. Yes. My area/81 gets blitzed regardless. But if that trend continues we all flip.  

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

One thing I noticed on the 18Z runs is the storm has slowed down. That gives the HP time to move to the northeast. Which brings the upper level winds in from the due south. That sucks for all of us. Yes. My area/81 gets blitzed regardless. But if that trend continues we all flip.  

Maybe, but more than anything, a low coming west of OC, and specifically west of the bay, is what screwed us on that run. That's going to screw us anytime. Well, maybe not you, but certainly the metros.

[H2O]

DT says to ignore the 18z. 

[osfan24]

Just now, H2O said:

DT says to ignore the 18z. 

Unless it's the Euro.

[Weather Will]

Interesting but even before the model shift west, most Mets I have read on NWS, DT,  and WB 
‘s JB have not felt that the cities east would get the heaviest snow.  So there should not be complete shock about the models at 18z. The question is due they continue a western trend, hold course, or shift back East.  We’ll start to get a answer at 0Z if this was a trend or blip.

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Interesting but even before the model shift west, most Mets I have read on NWS, DT,  and WB 
‘s JB have not felt that the cities east would get the heaviest snow.  So there should not be complete shock about the models at 18z. The question is due they continue a western trend, hold course, or shift back East.  We’ll start to get a answer at 0Z if this was a trend or blip.

Did you look at the GEFS posted above or nah?

[Weather Will]

I was referring to the deterministic models.  Don’t they start to carry more weight at about 4 days?

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Did you look at the GEFS posted above or nah?

 

[Weather Will]

I am just trying to be a realist.  I lived inside the Beltway for 25 years  before moving to Ellicott City and now Brunswick.  It snows more outside the Beltway.  Where is the forecast map from a pro met for Wed that has the bullseye in the cities eastward?

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I was referring to the deterministic models.  Don’t they start to carry more weight at about 4 days?

 

We get it, you are in a great spot. But several mets above noted that op was a massive outlier to the ensembles, but, sure, maybe it's a trend. Enjoy your three feet. 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

I am just trying to be a realist.  I lived inside the Beltway for 25 years  before moving to Ellicott City and now Brunswick.  It snows more outside the Beltway.  Where is the forecast map from a pro met for Wed that has the bullseye in the cities eastward?

Not trying to be a jerk but no shit brother. We all know our Climo. We are just trying to find a way for all of us to score. 

[Weather Will]

I want everyone to get snow as well.  I am just suggesting that people shouldn’t get their hopes up.    We can’t will the rain snow line SE... I know, I have tried  to do that a few times myself the last 50 years...