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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you’ve got to move away from your winter forecast. I don’t mean to come across wrong here, but I’ve noticed you don’t move away from your forecast even when everything points differently. Just my opinion., but this is one of those times 

Please elaborate...thanks.

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Last winter was bad, and the best time to build snowpack and have it actually stick around is December and January, especially during the vacation period when people actually have the time to stay up for a storm without it impacting work and take our kids out and enjoy it.  I dont think there is many of us that would prefer most of our snow heading into spring, hopefully we get some events rolling in January to lift everyones spirits.

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, way too early to cancel. People are losing their shit because of the Grinch storm. Some of the interior already has 2 small snow events this month with a 10-15" storm in between. Well over their December snow climo. 

Anyone near or above snow climo to date, and complaining about it, can take a seat :lol:.  It's about enjoying the inches that fall from the sky when they come in New England.

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37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

You really know how to endear yourself with others.

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38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

Sunny and dry? Good. Cloudy and dry? Fine. Cold and dry? Not a problem. Enough with the f****** rain.

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31 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Lol, I can't remember the weather last week some times. Four times over so many years doesn't mean much to me. Still seems like a gamble

 

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

 

 

To name a few could go on and on and not just winter either. There is value for long lead times. 

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33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well for all you doomers by next week hindsight will in fact be 2020

I think this whooshed a lot of people, hopefully our staff Eye Dr caught it

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. 

 

I mean, those are the two metrics that matter to most snow lovers.  Total inches that fall from the sky in a given period, and number of days they don't have to look at grass.  Compare it to normal and you have your answer.

There are some that regardless of numbers compared to climo, seem to melt  if god forbid someone near them has a better experience.  The jackpot syndrome. 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I mean, those are the two metrics that matter to most snow lovers.  Total inches that fall from the sky in a given period, and number of days they don't have to look at grass.  Compare it to normal and you have your answer.

Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please elaborate...thanks.

I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter forecast month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the month change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

Yeah I enjoyed Christmas Eve as well. Similar vibe. At least that aspect of Christmas was enjoyable. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, it's just the timing of the epic grinch distorts the "feeling" of it. But I personally enjoyed Xmas eve a ton...it had the reggae weekend vibe at the ski resorts....we were burning the firepit outside with temps near 50F and deep snow cover. My son making and then destroying a snowman, lol. 

Xmas day itself though was a total bummer. No denying that. 2017 this was not.

 

 

Yea Christmas eve totally rocked outside. Cranking tunes was a great night 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter directs month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the minus change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

Were you in a coma the past two seasons? I completely bailed by February on both.

I haven't seen a reason to deviate yet. All i missed was the PNA instead of RNA in December.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odds are at least one major storm in January will work out...I'm not calling for a January shut out. I just feel like we underachieved in December a little bit, and need to try to make up for it in January.

Name all of the great la nina Februarys......short list.

Nina simna . Toss your nina Telleconnections as far as you can

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve just noticed you don’t like to revert or change your winter directs month to month . It’s issued in Oct and if the minus change , you like to stick with the initial forecast and tend to not think models are correct if they are different from your ideas . I. E . Instead of adapting and massaging to fit how things change, you stay the course it regardless. I understand why, but sometimes it needs adapting. Again.. just how I view it. Right or wrong 

I actually enjoy that forecast. Just put your balls out there and make the call. See what happens. 

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I can only speak for myself but “losing it” should be taken in context. The context being a board dedicated to the enjoyment of weather. If and when I lose it, it will be in the context of these discussions not the rest of my life. It’s like talking about your football team going into battle or saying your favorite player is a warrior. It’s not literal. Like I said, maybe it’s just me but I don’t look at a bad run of the 18Z suite and then go kick my dog and yell at my wife and kid. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not like I don't acknowledge when it fails.....believe me, I will be the first to post that its wrong if Feb looks great.

Yeah you're honest with that for sure.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Were you in a coma the past two seasons? I completely bailed by February on both.

I haven't seen a reason to deviate yet. All i missed was the PNA instead of RNA in December.

I’m not saying you had bad forecasts or anything. But January will be interesting. The one you used today doesn’t match modeling. Perhaps yours is right and modeling is wrong. We’ll find out soon enough 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not saying you had bad forecasts or anything. But January will be interesting. The one you used today doesn’t match modeling. Perhaps yours is right and modeling is wrong. We’ll find out soon enough 

My last two were awful...I said it lol.

Keep in mind....go back and look at modeling when I started the December thread.

Anyway, its just a conversation starter when I post those to start threads....more for posterity.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My last two were awful...I said it lol.

Keep in mind....go back and look at modeling when I started the December thread.

Anyway, its just a conversation starter when I post those to start threads....more for posterity.

Well Dr Dews indulged :lol:

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

There has not been a worse screamer in any month in NE annals . Not even 96. Nothing ever wiped out snow to Quebec and the Canadian maritimes. This was the first screamer to ever accomplish that .

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