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December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
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17 hours ago, TheMainer said:

I'm hoping based on guidance this will be my scene again right about new years day 20 miles south of Greenville Maine with over 2 feet of pack on the ground, can't wait to get back in the groomer.

26240055_1526691430713132_71409405509149

 

Tasty.
And it's good to see a Maine poster from north of 45°.  It's been a while since we've had anyone from the northeasterly 85% of the state..

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Low probability but you know ..we may have to watch the 8th... 

It occurs to me, ... I'm thinking the system for the 5th/6th may actually get a 'phase boost' when the S/W wind max up N of Lake Superior over western JB region plummets S over the Lakes - I mean we've predicated our ideas ultimately on models and assuming that's cogently integrated off well-sampled data and it's not - least I don't see how it can be... 

It'll be an interesting test to see how if there is any morphology upon that cutting over Michigan... 

Anyway, the 8th is similar ... The only difference is the wave spacing between the 6th exit and the 8th is just too close...Otherwise, that's really a reduxing the 5th/6th set up. You have a southern stream vestigial 'placeholder' ejected from the W and then S/W mechanics subsumes from the N/stream...If the N/stream were stronger  - and it is presently still over the Gulf of Alaska ... - then it could torque things up and overcome. 

It's plausible even if unlikely ... just something to watch ... 

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Looks like a period of low heights in AK for late dec/early Jan but then it breaks down after that 

Have to watch WPO though...might stay negative so that’s important...if it does in tandem with Aleutian ridge, we can still live on that even with some lower heights in AK. Ala ‘07-08. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a period of low heights in AK for late dec/early Jan but then it breaks down after that 

Have to watch WPO though...might stay negative so that’s important...if it does in tandem with Aleutian ridge, we can still live on that even with some lower heights in AK. Ala ‘07-08. 

Yeah, around jan 18th we start seeing change back to a better look. I know that is way out there but it would fit the script on some of stuff going on with the strat/mjo

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The 8th system seems to be a more legit threat then current model runs have shown.  I am under the suspicion that the 8th system comes back to the benchmark and ends up delivering our first accumulating snows along the coastal plain.

Suspicion or influence?

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The 8th system seems to be a more legit threat then current model runs have shown.  I am under the suspicion that the 8th system comes back to the benchmark and ends up delivering our first accumulating snows along the coastal plain.

Sorry man, but nothing is showing that happening. I think you should let this one go. If a miracle happens, at least you'll be surprised

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Sorry man, but nothing is showing that happening. I think you should let this one go. If a miracle happens, at least you'll be surprised

Like this past storm ? The models are all over. Yes the storm has a hard time coming up on the models as of right now but we shouldn't dismiss it yet.

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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Like this past storm ? The models are all over. Yes the storm has a hard time coming up on the models as of right now but we shouldn't dismiss it yet.

It could happen but it's a little soon after the first one than we typically see.

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6 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The 8th system seems to be a more legit threat then current model runs have shown.  I am under the suspicion that the 8th system comes back to the benchmark and ends up delivering our first accumulating snows along the coastal plain.

Already done on the mainland 

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27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who thought we’d be talking about any snow with this thing...so ya never know? Sure Would be nice.  
 

Maybe this thing(tmrws system) can get out of the way a lil quicker?  

Slim shot but if it happens it would favor SE zones. Just not enough time to recover. Crazy cuz 12-24hrs would do it. 

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