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Windspeed

Tropical Storm Eta

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wow.  what're the odds the season's last storm is its most powerful?

unless, of course, the atmosphere intends to keep spawning storms through late fall...

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1 minute ago, Will - Rutgers said:

wow.  what're the odds the season's last storm is its most powerful?

unless, of course, the atmosphere intends to keep spawning storms through late fall...

My guess is the odds are that this is not the last storm of the season.

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Just now, Prospero said:

My guess is the odds are that this is not the last storm of the season.

This ^^^

There were storms all the way into January in 2005.

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Well, while it is 2020, the year of anything is possible (tm), I think the analog years (2005), the continued warmth of much of the atlantic, favorable upper level patterns, and general trends both as a meteorologist and in looking at models all point to this not being the last storm. This will likely be a year in which we continue to see storm generation through November, into potentially December or even early January. The fact we have what is effectively a cat 5 at the start of November means that this isn't the last rodeo. In fact, most models the last few weeks have popcorned various new storms across the basin the next few weeks. The specifics change run to run. I don't want to get into the weeds here as this is more appropriate to discuss in the 2020 season thread. But, short version: this is probably not the last storm. This IS however almost definitely the most powerful storm of the season and historic for central america. 

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2020NOV02 235017  6.1  944.1 117.4  6.1 6.3 7.7  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -11.78 -78.83  EYE      8 IR  20.0   14.32   82.48  ARCHER  GOES16 18.8 

Only one other storm had a raw T above 7.5 in the last week

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12 minutes ago, Normandy said:

We are at the point now where I think the question isn't if it's a category 5 anymore....the question is how strong of a Cat 5 it is.  On pins and needles waiting for recon now.  My guess: 155 knots.  904 mb.

I’m thinking more like 145 knots 920. Unless we see even more tightening before arrival. Water temps support super high end.

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1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

I think 920 is more reasonable than 905 given how small it is. 

I'm going sub-900.  895.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

I'm going sub-900.  895.

Damn bro. I’ll be excited if that’s the case but it’s just so hard to get to that level that I’d never predict that in an Atlantic storm that isn’t an obvious Wilma. 

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9 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Place yer bets folks! Come one come all, try your luck! Guess the pressure and winds! Only 5 cents! 

925/160 mph

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Sounds like we will have several straight hours of recon this evening/overnight. Two planes currently expected to go in over night, counting the one on the way now. 

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ESTIMATED PRESSURE/WIND CONTEST--SO FAR:

Note: Entries and edits close once the aircraft enters the storm. 

LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt

The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb

jpeters3: 895mb

Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt

sojitodd: 914-917mb

Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt

Newman: 910mb/150kt

olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt

Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt

Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt 

Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt

OhioWX: 923mb/145kt

DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt

yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt

 

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Watching the satellite, Eta's eye just got even BETTER defined, and those extreme cold cloudtops now make up the entire CDO. Similar to Wilma, to be honest. 

HurricaneEta.png

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