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November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

What does the (really +13) mean? thanks        I FIND THE GFS SO BAD ON THE T,  I JUST ROUTINELY REMOVE 5 DEGREES FOR AN 8 DAY PERIOD.      THE ERROR SEEMS TO BE + ALL THE TIME.       56/69 WAS THE ACTUAL, SO 51/64 IS PROBABLY MORE REASONABLE.

 

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38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Euro Monthly Guidance is very warm. Hopefully, it won’t verify.

I'm not surprised. System after system into the Pac NW is usually not a good sign for winter enthusiasts in the east. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That ain’t good. If Dec bombs here during a mod-strong Nina, hard to see any recovery given how Nina usually goes later in the winter. 

It would be all the nails in the coffin and the coffin encased in  concrete. 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Euro Monthly Guidance is very warm. Hopefully, it won’t verify.

There is potential for this winter to blow 2011/12 out of the water regarding the warmth.

Imagine seeing widespread blooms in Dec/Jan, insane stuff. 

There's also a chance we go through some odd snowy/cold periods.

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70° now at Newark. They need to reach 5 to get into the November top 3. 2015 was the last November with 5 days reaching 70°.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   70  42  36 SW14G21   
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 1975 7 0
2 1994 6 0
- 1990 6 0
- 1953 6 0
- 1931 6 0
3 2015 5 0
- 2001 5 0
- 1982 5 0
- 1938 5 0

 

 

 

 

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An incredible onslaught of 15 days worth of Double_Digit 850mb T's are incoming.      Normal is probably 4C to 3C.

Look at this.     We got away lucky last year.       As the Earth Burns:

20202019EOYGlobalTemps_Map_en_title_lg.j

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

70° now at Newark. They need to reach 5 to get into the November top 3. 2015 was the last November with 5 days reaching 70°.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   70  42  36 SW14G21   
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 
Missing Count
1 1975 7 0
2 1994 6 0
- 1990 6 0
- 1953 6 0
- 1931 6 0
3 2015 5 0
- 2001 5 0
- 1982 5 0
- 1938 5 0

 

 

 

 

1938 was a very interesting month, yesterday I was looking at the top 30 warmest NOV's at Philly for the most 70 degree days & that year is #2 with 8 such days. What's cool is the first 23 days of that month averaged 54.2 degrees which is 5.4 degrees above average & on pace for the warmest NOV on record however the last 7 days of the month averaged 30.4 degrees representing a -13.2 degree departure. Additionally over the last 7 days Philadelphia recorded 11.2" of snow making NOV 1938 the 2nd snowiest NOV on record.

Looking at Newark the warmth wasn't as pronounced over the 1st 23 days, 51.8 degrees (+3.8), but like Philly the cold & snow at the end of the month was extreme. Temperature wise the final 7 days averaged 28.4 degrees (-14.5) & over that timeframe Newark recorded 14.2" of snow making NOV 1938 the snowiest NOV on record.

 

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Temperatures rose into the upper 60s with some lower 70s across the region today. Tomorrow could be several degrees warmer in many parts of the region.

Widespread record warmth again prevailed in the western half of the United States from the Southwest into the Northern Plains. Records included:

Bismarck: 77° (old record: 76°, 2016)
El Paso: 85° (old record: 82°, 1916, 1924 and 1945)
Helena: 76° (old record: 68°, 2001) ***New November Record***
Missoula, MT: 69° (old record: 67°, 1934 and 2012)
Montreal: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988)
Phoenix: 99° (old record: 93°, 2007) ***New November Record***
Rapid City: 79° (old record: 77°, 2016)
Scottsbluff, NE: 81° (old record: 79°, 1914)
Tucson: 94° (old record: 92°, 2009) ***Tied November Record***

The core of the exceptional warmth that has been setting records across the Plains States into the Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward. This weekend into the start of next week, it will be focused on the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario and Quebec.

As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will become established in the Western third of the United States. By the end of the weekend or early next week, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm.

In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The probability that November will have a mean temperature of 50° or above in Central Park has increased. The last time that occurred was 2015.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was -5.79.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.694. That is the highest AO figure since March 24, 2020 when the AO was +3.968.

On November 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.748 (RMM). The November 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.748.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

 

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6 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

After a low of 31 made it to 71 for the high, 69 currently. Stellar weather. 

Tomorrow through next Wednesday is forecasted to be 70 or greater IMBY.  That's pretty remarkable considering we are heading into the second week of November.

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1975 had a plus ao in November...it had a plus ao winter with some neg periods...it had a cold start  despite the plus ao...this year could beat those highs...1978 had an even higher plus ao than 1975 but by the end of December it became quite negative......

Nov-Dec daily ao in 1975...

1975 10 31  1.061
1975 11  1  1.724
1975 11  2  2.706
1975 11  3  3.338
1975 11  4  3.121
1975 11  5  2.250
1975 11  6  1.883
1975 11  7  2.352
1975 11  8  2.560
1975 11  9  1.763
1975 11 10  0.456
1975 11 11 -0.873
1975 11 12 -1.191
1975 11 13 -0.961
1975 11 14 -0.420
1975 11 15  0.212
1975 11 16 -0.310
1975 11 17 -1.259
1975 11 18 -1.559
1975 11 19 -1.506
1975 11 20 -1.537
1975 11 21 -1.190
1975 11 22 -0.426
1975 11 23  0.527
1975 11 24  2.020
1975 11 25  2.126
1975 11 26  1.727
1975 11 27  1.284
1975 11 28  0.362
1975 11 29 -0.492
1975 11 30 -0.785
1975 12  1  0.043
1975 12  2  0.471
1975 12  3  0.744
1975 12  4  0.959
1975 12  5  0.669
1975 12  6  0.540
1975 12  7  0.906
1975 12  8  0.881
1975 12  9  0.586
1975 12 10  0.326
1975 12 11  0.221
1975 12 12  0.769
1975 12 13  1.262
1975 12 14  1.208
1975 12 15  0.475
1975 12 16 -0.222
1975 12 17  0.125
1975 12 18  1.000
1975 12 19  1.681
1975 12 20  2.976
1975 12 21  3.524
1975 12 22  2.224
1975 12 23  1.324
1975 12 24  1.432
1975 12 25  1.858
1975 12 26  2.646
1975 12 27  2.786
1975 12 28  2.384
1975 12 29  2.026
1975 12 30  1.787
1975 12 31  0.950

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The next 8 days are averaging 64degs.(58/70).      Making it 59degs., or +10[really +15].     No reading below 50* till the 15th!

56*(86%RH) here at 6am---thin, variable overcast.         58*(85%RH) by 11am.       60* by Noon.       61* by 12:30pm.        62* by 1pm.      63* by 2pm.       66* by 3:30pm.       67* by 3:45pm.     69*(67%RH) by 4pm.

Tropics:    17.2N  87.3W---back over the water.

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9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Last winter we had a -ao in November then never saw it again 

Right. This fact isnt lost on me.

This is the complete opposite of the last several Novembers.

I wont type what I am thinking next because it would be pure speculation.

51F

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

could also just be an 01-02, 11-12 style blowtorch that starts in November and runs the table....

The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 60 and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 71°

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is underway.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster

I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again. 

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Models continuing with near record 500 mb positive height anomalies for November this weekend. The November record for the NYC area is 589dm from the SPC sounding climo site. So an unusually warm November weekend coming up.

251C0C9B-C410-4D15-8CA9-BEE6224BD0BF.thumb.png.e35e8ebfe3f266247526a2e28d10a811.png
 

 

 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro seasonal is as ugly as it gets. Dec-Mar are a total disaster

If that’s the case, awful but all the better. A train of teases or nearby getting heavy snow and 33-34 rain here are the worst. Let ‘em all cut for Buffalo then and have it be warm here. Hopefully it’s not the cutter then days of bitter cold and dry before another cutter. Ninas are famous for that here too. 

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1 hour ago, Neblizzard said:

I see you’re back in full force hoping for another blowtorch . Glad to see you posting again. 

Just stating fact, nowhere did I hope for anything. Please stop derailing this thread with your conspiracy theories. 

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38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If that’s the case, awful but all the better. A train of teases or nearby getting heavy snow and 33-34 rain here are the worst. Let ‘em all cut for Buffalo then and have it be warm here. Hopefully it’s not the cutter then days of bitter cold and dry before another cutter. Ninas are famous for that here too. 

I bet we see allot of gradient storms like the last few winter with low centers heading along 95 and snow north of 84. I think we could pull off a wintery stretch with some transient blocking. If I had to guess it’s when we don’t want it, sometime in March.

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