dmillz25 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: While we still warm up back to around 60° heading into the weekend, we may get a backdoor with more easterly flow and clouds on Sunday. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/18/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO X/N 39| 31 50| 44 59| 50 60| 44 54| 49 60| 40 51| 44 56 37 50 TMP 36| 33 49| 47 55| 51 54| 46 53| 51 53| 41 47| 46 52 DPT 12| 17 26| 33 37| 40 35| 36 47| 46 41| 30 34| 39 39 CLD CL| CL CL| CL PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| CL CL| OV OV With the way today feels I’ll take 60° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: With the way today feels I’ll take 60° Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: While we still warm up back to around 60° heading into the weekend, we may get a backdoor with more easterly flow and clouds on Sunday. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/18/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO X/N 39| 31 50| 44 59| 50 60| 44 54| 49 60| 40 51| 44 56 37 50 TMP 36| 33 49| 47 55| 51 54| 46 53| 51 53| 41 47| 46 52 DPT 12| 17 26| 33 37| 40 35| 36 47| 46 41| 30 34| 39 39 CLD CL| CL CL| CL PC| PC PC| OV OV| OV OV| CL CL| OV OV Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 12 hours ago, Cfa said: You really radiate much more than me. Low of 32 here. I’m just south of the moraine, it’s flat from here all the way to the Atlantic (and to Florida), but it gets hilly immediately to the north of me. 32 here the last 2 nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 fwiw... past 24 hours rough idea of new snowfall. This part of Wantage NJ Trace both yesterday and this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow. Would be great to slow down the firehose. It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, Rjay said: 32 here the last 2 nights 31 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 35 after a low of 32. coldest of season so far, 1st freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow. It'll also make ridges harder to sustain. Models are showing a much more variable pattern (still mild) that's not as torchy as we've seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch. I hope we don't have 4 months of March again. There were so many cloudy, dreary 40s & 50s type days last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch. So we may finish November with average temperatures closer to the 2011 and 1999 La Ninas rather than than 2015 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 55.1 13 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: So we may finish November with average temperatures closer to the 2011 and 1999 La Ninas rather than than 2015 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 55.1 13 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0 Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month There were some similarities between the 99-00 and 11-12 La Ninas. Both featured a mild November and December. The biggest snowstorm of both winters occurred almost on the same date in late January. NYC 2000-01-25 30 25 27.5 -5.0 37 0 0.73 5.5 2 2012-01-21 29 22 25.5 -6.8 39 0 0.39 4.3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Rjay said: 32 here the last 2 nights 31 here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 More flakes and still 29* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Low of 32 here, only 34 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 High of 36 so far today. More of a late December feel then November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 4 hours ago, Eduardo said: Would be great to slow down the firehose. It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast. We may have to wait until another strong El Niño emerges to see a dominant STJ instead. Jan 16 was one of my all time favorites. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2020 Author Share Posted November 18, 2020 Cold day out there. Current temp is 37 here. Overnight low was 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 39f for the high in Jersey City and currently 35 Overnight low was also 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Temps will tank tonight. My forecast is 21F and it's 37F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month Don't get me wrong that winter wasn't epic & something that'll be remembered for years however it does have it's moments. At Philly the 31 day period from 1/14 thru 2/13 was quite cold, -6.4 degree departure. Over that span 15.8" of snow officially at the airport, a tick or two more here locally NE of the city. What's interesting is the # of consecutive days with at least 1" of snow cover. At PHL snow depth records go back to 1948 and that winter had the 3rd longest stretch on record. JAN/FEB 1961 - 28 days FEB/MAR 2003 - 26 days JAN/FEB 2000 - 23 days Locally I finished that season with just over 24" close to average. Included an APR stat padder, throw in some bonus pts. for a double digit storm & yeah after the laundry list of dreadful outlooks I'd sign up for something similar. Locally 37 / 31 split so far today, 37 is the coldest high temp since FEB 29th 1st freeze if not late tonight then certainly tomorrow morning at PHL, the airport will finish with a growing season of 260 days while my location 10 miles NE of the city is a dramatically different 173 days thanks to the solid May freeze. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month that dryslot ruined it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, forkyfork said: that dryslot ruined it Lol. I knew you would bring that up. We got 4-5 of heavy wet snow then it shut off. I’m still waiting for that 2-4 of wrap around snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lol. I knew you would bring that up. We got 4-5 of heavy wet snow then it shut off. I’m still waiting for that 2-4 of wrap around snows i woke up and it was pouring snow and kocin had us in the 12+ zone. ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i woke up and it was pouring snow and kocin had us in the 12+ zone. ugh I remember looking at TWC radar and being concerned about the lack of precipitation by ACY. That’s just one of those storms that kept going west all the way till start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 5.5" as measured in Central Park but at least 0.5" was un reported because it snowed lightly after midnight until dawn...it should have been a 6" storm for the city...1999-2000 had one of the latest measurable snowfalls when the first one came on Jan. 20th... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: 5.5" as measured in Central Park but at least 0.5" was un reported because it snowed lightly after midnight until dawn...it should have been a 6" storm for the city...1999-2000 had one of the latest measurable snowfalls when the first one came on Jan. 20th... That was the last time that the East Coast got a surprise major snowstorm when the models didn’t have any snow just a day before. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/major_snowstorm_ambushes_washi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Feels like snow outside 35 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 todays high of 36 is quite low for November 18th...the record is 33 last set in 1959... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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