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Typhoon Tip

Oct 29-30 snow threat

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This jet streak is absolutely insane for end of October...hell, that's on the wild side for winter. Going to be some incredible lift with this

image.thumb.png.8dd3054665ced77dec136aa120f45a46.png

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22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs pretty mundane for all 

 

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Not sure if I can make it up to Pit2 for this.  But I wish I were there or back in Shelburne.  Until we see some additional compelling runs closer in,  the safe bet is for a cold rain for my neck of the woods.

 

:(

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Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

  • Weenie 2

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Meh...this is still out there ...no sense in having/getting one expectations up first place but if your vested already - it's sort of silly to be ...

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Except it doesn’t show any of that lol

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Reverse psychology FTW!

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38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

nobody believes you, but nice try

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23 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Patiently waiting for GFS para to see what’s up. Also isn’t there a ECMWF 18z?

The 18hr only goes to 90 hrs but it's consistent with earlier runs giving NNE snows from the initial low.

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Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

The cane interaction seems to need a bit more time to sort out 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The cane interaction seems to need a bit more time to sort out 

As I said earlier, That's a wild card in this and how it interacts with the trough.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

I think that second part was about to take off when it stopped at hr 90.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that second part was about to take off when it stopped at hr 90.

Looked to me like it was going stay more south as heights were lower out ahead but i'm not going extrapolate it at this point.

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18z euro was definitely a little more crunched S than the 12z. But I wish we could see another panel or two. That was probably going to hammer CNE and SNE those next couple frames. 

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This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

Just like old times. Right back into the swing of things huh...

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just like old times. Right back into the swing of things huh...

It’d be nice if one of these held serve from inception in but that’s never the case ...there’s always a run or two that backs off if not completely turns off the dopamine drip and  everybody goes running for the Bridges

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I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

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