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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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Very little margin for error on that at the end of the week… it’s a “ flat wave phase“ for lack of better words… The whole thing between the N/stream and S/stream rejoining the former ... is being pancaked through a very compressed field but these runs ( Euro bites midway as others noted) still trying eek constructive sequence with good cadence .. other run cycles may be a bit more distracted

Once again it’s going to come down to what happens in the west with the Heights; first the pattern dumps a quasi-close low into the SW than that feature gets bumped east… And then as it moves through the Mississippi Valley and starts to turn north east thru the Tennessee Valley it all depends on how much the flow tips Northwest over the Great Lakes; if there’s a better post ejection ridge response the N/stream corrects steeply and that’s gonna make all the difference in the world.  
 

Note this thing’s been on the chart for for five days I wrote about this and that it had certain hallmarks of being something that shouldn’t be ignored and I still think so what that exactly is going to entail ... we’ll see. Not gonna be shocking with that much cold air burgeoning into Ontario and then filtering/pulled into the circulation as it matures underneath that this would get all the way down at the lower elevations at least into interior southern New England perhaps the second half for synoptic snow in the air gaining some possibility Central NE easier 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s within 4-5 days now though. Op runs have more value.

Anyways, getting more interesting. I do think I’d want to be more CNE/NNE. But maybe SNE can end it as some snow as gfs and euro show.

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. 

Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

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11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. 

Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

Gotta watch the s/w that really intensifies it offshore. 

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The interface is terrible. I can't find anything in a timely manner.

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That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast.

It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast.

It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it.

I recall a hauntingly similar post from you in Oct 2011 at about this lead time.

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