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Bostonseminole

November 2020 Discussion

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought Christine uttered said verbiage?

not first ... and when I said that to her the " ... too" was not sincere - 

but whatever ...that's the path chosen for me for whatever reason. 

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wow...  day 8/9 GFS oh so close to a big gnarly cold either snowy, or, going over to blue bonkers Nor'easter there...  

in fact, so close - and I've seen that before in extended GFS ...almost like an artifact of it's "stretching"/pulling bias ? - it creates kind of an abandoned CCB ..

In this paradigm ...the associated cyclone ripped seaward because it sabotaged the relationship.  Problem is, it has deeply unresolvable daddy-complex ... because he died when said cyclone was just 24 years of age ...  when already suffering a 'princess complex' due to his being too bonded and affectionating  ( not perverse...).   So the CCB is this poor bloke that really loves her and is raging on in his storming passion, while she's running away

Interesting - 

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in all seriousness though ...this period of time ( d8/9 ..) has shown up in the ensemble individual members ...more so than not.  

We'll see - probably have to go through 4 days of complete loss and non-existence in the guidance ... lives turned to other concerns, then have it show up at 84 hours lead coming back from Thanksgiving weekend...   

 

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At least there’s snow on the ground for this cold, even if it’s just 2” at home vs the 6-7” up at 1500ft.

Its frigid.  22F at MVL, 18F at base of ski area, 8F at the picnic tables.

Winter vibe today from the ASOS... snow globe conditions where it's just non-stop flakes but nothing overly heavy. 

Nov_18.jpg.bb9efea8b4f872f98ceb5144823e3b1a.jpg

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

At least there’s snow on the ground for this cold, even if it’s just 2” at home vs the 6-7” up at 1500ft.

Its frigid.  22F at MVL, 18F at base of ski area, 8F at the picnic tables.

Winter vibe today from the ASOS... snow globe conditions where it's just non-stop flakes but nothing overly heavy. 

Nov_18.jpg.bb9efea8b4f872f98ceb5144823e3b1a.jpg

Winter the way it should be.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Total snoozefest as we enter December on EPS. That is not where you want the PV.

 

 

Nov18_EPS360.png

That’s 15 days out...how much reliability does that actually have though?  Should we be more apt to believe this look at day 15, cuz it shows  something bad for us snow peeps? 
 

And If it were looking really good at day 15 on the EPS ...should we be less apt to believe it, cuz it shows something good? 
 

Seems like that’s how we seem to lean many times...?

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s 15 days out...how much reliability does that actually have though?  Should we be more apt to believe this look at day 15, cuz it shows  something bad for us snow peeps? 
 

And If it were looking really good at day 15 on the EPS ...should we be less apt to believe it, cuz it shows something good? 
 

Seems like that’s how we seem to lean many times...?

Its a way out, but guidance has been fairly emphatic.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s 15 days out...how much reliability does that actually have though?  Should we be more apt to believe this look at day 15, cuz it shows  something bad for us snow peeps? 
 

And If it were looking really good at day 15 on the EPS ...should we be less apt to believe it, cuz it shows something good? 
 

Seems like that’s how we seem to lean many times...?

It already there more or less by day 10....it's going to happen.

It is definitely not set in stone how long it lasts though. I did not like the weeklies on Monday. That was a bad sign. If we do not see a light at the end of the tunnel on the ensembles by, say, 11/25ish, then I'd be worried.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It already there more or less by day 10....it's going to happen.

It is definitely not set in stone how long it lasts though. I did not like the weeklies on Monday. That was a bad sign. If we do not see a light at the end of the tunnel on the ensembles by, say, 11/25ish, then I'd be worried.

It's interesting .. that screaming Pacific jet/compressed isohypsometric layout out there is the culprit - 'mean, ...not that you asked, just sayn' 

But that flow being exotically quick from mid Basin to the west coast would concomitantly lower heights on the polarward side ( Navier Sto ftl ...) ..and that lowering impells the PV to slip off it's kilter and reposition there. 
 

I don't know/think that could be stable that way ... but...I'm not sure frankly. 1982 had that Atmospheric River - but that year was definitely a Nino year, air and sea... This year is some sort of anachronous nightmare of doing the physical impossible now, when it's suppose to be otherwise apparently - 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting .. that screaming Pacific jet/compressed isohypsometric layout out there is the culprit - 'mean, ...not that you asked, just sayn' 

But that flow being exotically quick from mid Basin to the west coast would concomitantly lower heights on the polarward side ( Navier Sto ftl ...) ..and that lowering impells the PV to slip off it's kilter and reposition there. 
 

I don't know/think that could be stable that way ... but...I'm not sure frankly. 1982 had that Atmospheric River - but that year was definitely a Nino year, air and sea... This year is some sort of anachronous nightmare of doing the physical impossible now, when it's suppose to be otherwise apparently - 

I would be shocked if it sat there all season, like last year.

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I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? 

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3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? 

It could also cool the stratosphere, augmenting the proclivity for a +AO regime, as witnessed last season.

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2 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. 

The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. 

Best air mass of the next two weeks happening today?

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