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Spotty 4+" rain by Noon Thu Oct 1, 2020, with iso FFW possible Tue and/or Wed

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Despite the fact that it hadn't rained for more than two weeks (Sept 10th general last significant rainfall), the upcoming pattern will probably produce two significant rainfall episodes, Tuesday and then Wednesday-early Thu. One or both of these could result in a few NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings with total 60 hour rainfall in a few spots of the NYC forum exceeding 4 inches.

PWAT will be more than 1.5" most of Tue-Wed exceeding 2 inches for brief periods. 

Isolated SVR may occur along to east of I95 (including LI) but that is a low chance and not tagged as the primary subject matter and not outlooked by SPC this Sunday morning Sept 27  We may want to check for updates on SVR potential early this coming workweek. 

Have added the Sunday morning D3 WPC Excessive Risk rainfall potential for Tuesday and suspect there will be another issued tomorrow for Wednesday (maybe axised a bit further east). 

mPING reports will be helpful (flooding and even damaging wind). Hopefully a few of our members will have some 4+" reports by Thursday (max rainfall = very low chance could be 8" but that will require unusual overlapping heavy swaths and so a very low probability, but mentioned due to multiple models trying for this in or near our area). 

Otherwise, areas of showers/drizzle late today through Monday will precede the Tuesday-Wednesday events, and could produce spotty 1/4" amounts by Monday night.   832A/27

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-09-27 at 7.56.10 AM.png

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Good Monday morning, (returning to part time county work today after a 6 mo Covid reduction-so posts may  be a little fewer). Added this mornings D2/3. Looks like a little amplification-and even  less chance overlapping heavy bands so we'll let this play out as originated. 

(Monday morning .08 so far 3A-515A in Wantage NJ).

Screen Shot 2020-09-28 at 5.12.15 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-09-28 at 5.12.50 AM.png

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like it's turning into an 8 to 12 hour event and outta here by midday Wed 

Yeah that's what NAM and some other models are showing. I just mentioned this to Sacrus in the september thread because I don't understand why some keep talking about rain into thursday. It looks as if the sun will come out wednesday afternoon and the rain will be long gone by thursday. It's a tuesday night into wednesday morning rain event.

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah that's what NAM and some other models are showing. I just mentioned this to Sacrus in the september thread because I don't understand why some keep talking about rain into thursday. It looks as if the sun will come out wednesday afternoon and the rain will be long gone by thursday. It's a tuesday night into wednesday morning rain event.

Up until last night there was a 2nd round of rain into Thursday that the models have since lost

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Up until last night there was a 2nd round of rain into Thursday that the models have since lost

there was a closed low on the models which has trended toward being absorbed by the main trough. now the main event is tuesday night

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23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Up until last night there was a 2nd round of rain into Thursday that the models have since lost

There were hints that this would happen well before last night. NAM has been showing the rain ending early wednesday for several runs before now.

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

there was a closed low on the models which has trended toward being absorbed by the main trough. now the main event is tuesday night

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh42_trend.gif

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i wonder what all this is going to do to the fall foliage.  on my drive up to Franklin Lakes Saturday, there was plenty of yellow along the 287 corridor, some orange and red even.  now we're likely to get prodigious rain and some mildly gusty winds.  i hope it doesn't negatively impact the leaves turning.

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Not seeing much/any turning foliage here, but then again everything’s salt-burned and/or partially bald from Isaias.

Hoping to jackpot for a change.

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25 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i wonder what all this is going to do to the fall foliage.  on my drive up to Franklin Lakes Saturday, there was plenty of yellow along the 287 corridor, some orange and red even.  now we're likely to get prodigious rain and some mildly gusty winds.  i hope it doesn't negatively impact the leaves turning.

I doubt it will. And if the rgem is right we get less than an inch of rain :huh:

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Since we're basically in a 10A Tue -10A Wed event with bulk of heavy qpf midnight to 8A Wed, expecting general rainfall in bands of 0.4 to 2.5" with isolated 4-4.5 possible but less likely than 2  days ago. SVR potential seems to be increasing early Wednesday morning for the region east of I95 as all models rapidly increase the southerly 850MB jet to at least 50KT nosed into LI around 06z/Wed, intensifying to 75KT or higher east of Portsmouth NH 12z Wed. (00z/29 EC op is stronger)

To get to 4" rainfall, will need some 1/2-1" amounts later this afternoon vicinity NYC.  

Should be a narrow band(s?) of of torrential rain later tonight including thunder on LI where 400J of sfc based CAPE is modeled.

In summary,  this will be an interesting event for some in our area, especially NYC-NJ coast-CT coast eastward. Isolated 4" in this event istill possible but less likely than modeled 2 days ago due to no Wed night event.

Isolated shower-tstm wind gusts of 50 kt are possible LI...not likely, but possible early Wed.

mPing still valuable for unusual flooding/wind damage reports.  

3 HR County FFG added to show the most vulnerable areas to possible overnight FFW...mainly LI and possibly ne NJ-NYC. May be my last post of the daylight hrs. 528A/29  corrections 732A to pgh 1 and gave svr it's own line (above mPing)

Screen Shot 2020-09-29 at 5.08.17 AM.png

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11 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i wonder what all this is going to do to the fall foliage.  on my drive up to Franklin Lakes Saturday, there was plenty of yellow along the 287 corridor, some orange and red even.  now we're likely to get prodigious rain and some mildly gusty winds.  i hope it doesn't negatively impact the leaves turning.

The .12 here yesterday caused a moderate lead drop on the trees that had already turned around here. While vibrant it looks to be a short season here, we’ll see. 

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The .12 here yesterday caused a moderate lead drop on the trees that had already turned around here. While vibrant it looks to be a short season here, we’ll see. 

Morning IR. The postage stamp is still green, sorta. Considering that their are Ten families, 3 restaurants, 1 store, 1 house of worship and one daycare/pre school on a plot of land probably equal to one home in your neighborhood, fall should be delayed awhile longer. The postage stamp was going throug G R long before it became a popular topic, Be well, as always .....

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zzzzz...

Rain looks to be in and out in 6-8 hours. 

Most of the modeling has cut back to 1-2" with spotty 2"+ totals. 

I'm really hating that every event lately is in and out in under 8 hours. That doesn't bode well for Winter.

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

zzzzz...

Rain looks to be in and out in 6-8 hours. 

Most of the modeling has cut back to 1-2" with spotty 2"+ totals. 

I'm really hating that every event lately is in and out in under 8 hours. That doesn't bode well for Winter.

Thats pretty typical of these types of events

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Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Thats pretty typical of these types of events

yeah the bigger totals had to do with a 2nd storm that developed Wed night/Thurs which is not happening.   

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26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

zzzzz...

Rain looks to be in and out in 6-8 hours. 

Most of the modeling has cut back to 1-2" with spotty 2"+ totals. 

I'm really hating that every event lately is in and out in under 8 hours. That doesn't bode well for Winter.

noting that happens with this storm has any bearing on winter storms...

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Hard to expect more than 2-3” anywhere since it’ll be narrow bands where it could be more than that, but the front is fairly slow moving and some very moist air is being drawn in. Regardless it’s welcome especially further out in Suffolk where Fay/Isaias didn’t bring much rain. 

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