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WxUSAF

2020 Mid-Atlantic First Freeze Contest

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BWI: Nov 15

IAD: Nov 15

DCA: Dec. 15

RIC Nov 15

TB: 87 
 

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Our average forecasts:

DCA 11/11/20

BWI 10/29/20

IAD 10/26/20

RIC 11/6/20

Tie: 83.6

 

So far the tiebreaker value is 83F from IAD on the 7th.  Based on the projections, that's probably going to be the final value, but we'll see.  Chances for the first freeze, at least at IAD, look pretty decent over the next 10 days.  

2020 First Freeze Contest.xlsx

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Liking my November 4 call for the non-DCA points. Absolute earliest right looks like the 30th or 31st pending how much cold air is behind the front.

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On 10/22/2020 at 1:05 PM, WxUSAF said:

Liking my November 4 call for the non-DCA points. Absolute earliest right looks like the 30th or 31st pending how much cold air is behind the front.

looks like Monday night (Nov 2) could be the night for non-DCA points per this morning's LWX disco if they don't reach it Friday night

Quote
Temps Monday will be well below Sunday, and in fact stand a good
chance of being the coldest so far this season, with temps
potentially staying in the 30s and 40s all day long. This would
lead to another widespread freeze potential, with likely
the coldest night of the season thus far Monday night. Temps in
most suburbs could reach the 20s, especially if the wind
slackens late at night.

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On 11/1/2020 at 5:16 AM, WxUSAF said:

BWI and RIC with their best chance tonight. If not tonight, probably going to be awhile .

Wow, not even close

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On 11/2/2020 at 10:44 AM, MN Transplant said:

And now we wait...

Because of how late the freezes will be at all non-IAD stations, you're basically guaranteed to win...

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I mean, Ian’s gotta still be in this

Maybe, you’re way closer on IAD. I didn’t run all the scenarios on DCA to game it out, but you’re still a clear favorite.

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