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forkyfork

September 2020 wx discussion

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

some of these years had snow before December...1931, 2018, 2011 and 1989...

With the exception of the super El Niño in 15-16 and March 18, the anomalous NEPAC Ridge has told the story of the winter. 13-14 and 14-15 were cold and snowy as the ridge set up over NW Canada. 16-17 and 17-18 were warm and snowy as the ridge location pulled back to the Aleutians. The last 2 winters were warm and nearly snowless as the ridge locked in just north of Hawaii. It’s no coincidence that my favorite snowstorms since 12-13 were in January 16 and March 18 as we finally got a -NAO/-AO pattern. 

1C2BC7D0-989F-42FF-949E-3D4C0250D167.png.366048b38bfce43d94105b2921010b33.png
83D6DC17-3AF4-40E9-BB2F-0E96B6016F7F.png.d679abdd1d92e95adf32a571b7efb720.png

60E530B8-FCB1-482C-9D57-6CB86D6E6650.png.57ec988a3e5c6f9276c5d86324166ad7.png

 

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record pwats over 2.25" being forecast tomorrow without a tropical system nearby. impressive

pwat.us_ne.png

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21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

record pwats over 2.25" being forecast tomorrow without a tropical system nearby. impressive

 

Record moisture instead of heat to go with the near record WAR for September.


60F93F81-1CCD-4F8C-991A-5ED392C9F9C3.thumb.png.4de7ad235c13e0d7ecb402b15db70a81.png

 

 

 
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chances look good that this Saturday will be the third pristine Saturday in a row.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

South Shore coastal sections missed out on the heaviest of the March snows in 2019. So they had two consecutive well below normal snowfall seasons. But they also did much better than the NYC area from 2013 to 2018.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 6.8 1
2019-04-30 12.8 0
2018-04-30 65.9 0
2017-04-30 39.3 0
2016-04-30 41.4 0
2015-04-30 63.7 0
2014-04-30 63.7 0
2013-04-30 46.9 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
2020-04-30 4.8 1
2019-04-30 20.5 0
2018-04-30 40.9 0
2017-04-30 30.2 0
2016-04-30 32.8 0
2015-04-30 50.3 0
2014-04-30 57.4 0
2013-04-30 26.1 0

Looking at the previous 6 years before the last 2, we were overdue for what we had the last 2 years.

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10 hours ago, dWave said:

Centered in Freehold NJ. 3.1. Reports it was felt from south NJ to SI, Brooklyn & Queens. 

 

I work practically across the street from ISP; I was sitting in my car on break at the time, and it felt like someone shook my car very lightly by hand. I even looked in my mirror, lol. I thought to myself, "Did I just feel an earthquake.....? Naaaaa".

SOB, I come here and see this. Not lying. 

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Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and very humid. Showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely. Overall, much of the region will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain with some locally higher amounts.

Overall, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. An autumn-like air mass will likely arrive late this week. Another cool air mass could arrive next week.

Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month.

Numerous record low temperatures were established overnight in the Rockies and parts of the Southwest. Select low temperatures included:

Albuquerque: 39° (old record: 43°, 1915)
Amarillo: 37° (old record: 44°, 1941)
Casper: 25° (old record: 29°, 1962)
Colorado Springs: 30° (tied record set in 1941)
El Paso: 53° (old record: 55°, 1882 and 2004)
Denver: 30° (old record: 31°, 1962)
Lander, WY: 23° (old record: 26°, 1903 and 1962)

Snowfall totals through September 8 included:

Burris (11 WSW), WY: 17.0"
Casper: 7.5"
Cheyenne: 1.1"
Denver: 1.0"
Lander: 4.7"

At Denver, yesterday's 1.0" snow followed a four-day heat wave. The temperature on September 7 reached 93°. That was Denver's highest temperature one day before the city received measurable snowfall. The previous record was 92° on September 12, 1993.

At the Rapid City National Weather Service Office in East Rapid City, September 5 saw the temperature reach 102°. Just two days later on September 7, 1.0" snow was measured.

The air mass responsible for the record cold could send the temperature below 70° tonight in Phoenix. Temperatures below 70° on September 10 or earlier have become very uncommon occurrences. The last time the temperature was in the 60s on or before September 10 was August 28, 2008 when the mercury fell to 64°. The number of occurrences by recent decade are below:

1970s: 9 days
1980s: 6 days
1990s: 3 days
2000s: 1 day
2010s: None

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing.

The SOI was -6.00.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.381.

On September 8, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.750.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5°.

 

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9/9

TEB: 84
EWR: 82
LGA: 81
NYC: 81
ACY: 81*
PHL: 81
TTN: 80
New Brnswck: 80
JFK: maybe 80
ISP: 78
BLM: 75

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11 hours ago, doncat said:

You felt it last night? 

Yes woke up to loud boom, thought a tree fell on the house or another house exploded.  Pool water was swooshing around. Shake wasnt too bad but the boom was quite unique and intense.

 

 

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Based on Earthquake History chart from SACRUS above, the quake  I felt in August 2003 while resting on the beach was 3.8, not 3.5 and located 60 miles due east---near PA., not nearby NJ.

The 2011 quake was felt only by people who were seated.     I felt nothing because I was finishing an active game of handball at that moment.     My group on the beach had felt it and further noted all cell phone access was jammed.      Only the non-synchronous messaging was working with a big queuing delay. 

Seismic waves on the EC travel further, but cause less damage, I believe.     

At any rate, there is a 'CAROL-1960' like tracked hurricane---supposedly near the 23-24.    JB likes it that way!

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The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 3.5degs. AN.         Make it -1.5.

74*(97%RH) here at 6am, rain and gloomy sky.

The Fish Storms are at:      21N  49W,   18N  35W.   

  A possible Donna like system is just emerging the African coast and could with its tag team buddy (emerging 3 days later) threaten the EC during the 23rd-30th period.   Jeepers!    Just noticed they would be named Ted & Sally!!    Well it is something to monitor.

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Morning thoughts...

At 8:40 am, a batch of heavy rain was moving northeastward across Long Island and into eastern New England. Another batch of heavy rain was located in eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. Through 8 am, daily rainfall amounts included:

Atlantic City: 1.36" (old record: 1.21", 2018)
Bridgeport: 0.29"
Islip: 0.58"
New York City: 0.29"
Newark: 0.41"

Today will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. While much of the region will pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain, there will be an area of 1"-3" rainfall that will cut across parts of the region. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°
Newark: 80°
Philadelphia: 81°

Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through much of the week. Cooler air could arrive late in the week providing for an early taste of autumn this weekend.

 

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75/73 in between showers with some breaks in the clouds.  More storms, shower today before drying out and cooling off Fri (9/11) and Sat (9/12).  Sun - Mon looks a touch warmer before more cooler air comes in Tue / Wed then a brief warm-up Thursday (9/17).

 

9/18 - 9/21 - coolest air of the season since May with several days below normal.  Tropics watch 9/20 - 9/24.  Stronger warmth and more sustained ridging looks to close the month and end things overall +1 - +2.

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Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more

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46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more

Last couple years we seem to get one in early October.

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more

Maybe but the window is rapidly closing. We'll probably just see more the same above normal, dewey weather. 

There are a couple autumnal like cool intrusions though.

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe but the window is rapidly closing. 

it closes in a month

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

:weenie:

i really doubt we're done with the tropics, regardless of this model.  the atmosphere is just dumping spin-ups one after the other.  luckily Laura was an outlier and most of them are trash.

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A general 0.50"-1.50" rain fell across the region today with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals through 8 pm included:

Atlantic City: 3.67" (old record: 1.21", 2018)
Bridgeport: 1.95" (old record: 1.67", 1999)
Islip: 2.68" (old record: 2.30", 2015)
New York City-JFK: 1.13"
New York City-LGA: 0.91"
New York City-NYC: 0.66"
Newark: 1.07"
Philadelphia: 0.69"
Wantagh, NY: 4.66"

Sunshine will return tomorrow. Readings will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Sunshine and cooler conditions are likely for the start of the weekend. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal.

Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing.

The SOI was +0.12.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.826. That is the highest figure since March 26 when the AO was +1.934.

On September 9, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.605.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3°.

Finally,on September 9, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.586 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound is 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.581 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record.

 

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9/10

EWR: 86
TEB: 85
LGA: 85
New Brnswck: 84
PHL: 84
TTN: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 82
BLM: 81
ISP: 81
ACY: 81

 

Clouds in the way of what could have been some hot temps today.  Heat is off till 9/24 at the least.

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