MJO812 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 9/9 TEB: 84 EWR: 82 LGA: 81 NYC: 81 ACY: 81* PHL: 81 TTN: 80 New Brnswck: 80 JFK: maybe 80 ISP: 78 BLM: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 11 hours ago, doncat said: You felt it last night? Yes woke up to loud boom, thought a tree fell on the house or another house exploded. Pool water was swooshing around. Shake wasnt too bad but the boom was quite unique and intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 ECM and GFS with a storm along the EC near 9/21 - 9/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Based on Earthquake History chart from SACRUS above, the quake I felt in August 2003 while resting on the beach was 3.8, not 3.5 and located 60 miles due east---near PA., not nearby NJ. The 2011 quake was felt only by people who were seated. I felt nothing because I was finishing an active game of handball at that moment. My group on the beach had felt it and further noted all cell phone access was jammed. Only the non-synchronous messaging was working with a big queuing delay. Seismic waves on the EC travel further, but cause less damage, I believe. At any rate, there is a 'CAROL-1960' like tracked hurricane---supposedly near the 23-24. JB likes it that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 I was in the shower for the 2011 earthquake and remember feeling the tub sway a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 73degs., or 3.5degs. AN. Make it -1.5. 74*(97%RH) here at 6am, rain and gloomy sky. The Fish Storms are at: 21N 49W, 18N 35W. A possible Donna like system is just emerging the African coast and could with its tag team buddy (emerging 3 days later) threaten the EC during the 23rd-30th period. Jeepers! Just noticed they would be named Ted & Sally!! Well it is something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Have picked up 0.30" of rain so far today here. Current temp 74/DP 72/RH 95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 8:40 am, a batch of heavy rain was moving northeastward across Long Island and into eastern New England. Another batch of heavy rain was located in eastern Virginia and southern Maryland. Through 8 am, daily rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 1.36" (old record: 1.21", 2018) Bridgeport: 0.29" Islip: 0.58" New York City: 0.29" Newark: 0.41" Today will be mainly cloudy with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy. While much of the region will pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain, there will be an area of 1"-3" rainfall that will cut across parts of the region. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 81° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through much of the week. Cooler air could arrive late in the week providing for an early taste of autumn this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 75/73 in between showers with some breaks in the clouds. More storms, shower today before drying out and cooling off Fri (9/11) and Sat (9/12). Sun - Mon looks a touch warmer before more cooler air comes in Tue / Wed then a brief warm-up Thursday (9/17). 9/18 - 9/21 - coolest air of the season since May with several days below normal. Tropics watch 9/20 - 9/24. Stronger warmth and more sustained ridging looks to close the month and end things overall +1 - +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Dew points tropical air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Over the past hour, Islip picked up 1.95" rain. That brought today's total to 2.53". That surpasses the previous daily record of 2.30", which was set in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Brutal out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 46 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more Last couple years we seem to get one in early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Right now there doesn't seem to be any major heat on the horizon. If we're to see anymore 90s it would like have to wait until the final week of Sept or beginning of Oct. I still think we'll squeeze in 1 or 2 more Maybe but the window is rapidly closing. We'll probably just see more the same above normal, dewey weather. There are a couple autumnal like cool intrusions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 10, 2020 Author Share Posted September 10, 2020 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe but the window is rapidly closing. it closes in a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2020 Share Posted September 10, 2020 Pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 A general 0.50"-1.50" rain fell across the region today with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals through 8 pm included: Atlantic City: 3.67" (old record: 1.21", 2018) Bridgeport: 1.95" (old record: 1.67", 1999) Islip: 2.68" (old record: 2.30", 2015) New York City-JFK: 1.13" New York City-LGA: 0.91" New York City-NYC: 0.66" Newark: 1.07" Philadelphia: 0.69" Wantagh, NY: 4.66" Sunshine will return tomorrow. Readings will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the area. Sunshine and cooler conditions are likely for the start of the weekend. The season's coolest air mass so far could arrive next week. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing. The SOI was +0.12. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.826. That is the highest figure since March 26 when the AO was +1.934. On September 9, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.605. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.3°. Finally,on September 9, Arctic sea ice extent was 3.586 million square kilometers (JAXA). Based on 2010-2019 data, the highest 25% bound is 3.742 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.581 million square kilometers. 2020 is the second consecutive year with a minimum extent figure below 4.000 million square kilometers and the third such year on record. 2020 also has, by far, the second lowest figure on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 9/10 EWR: 86 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 84 PHL: 84 TTN: 83 NYC: 82 JFK: 82 BLM: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 81 Clouds in the way of what could have been some hot temps today. Heat is off till 9/24 at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Picked up 2.36" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 7 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC could see one of its latest first 50s of the season next week. Not surprising to see '15 and '16 on there. Very curious how this Fall unfolds, and if it'll be more of what we've seen recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 82/71 temp split today...another 70°+ min which gives me 41 now this season which ties with three other years for most. Rainfall of 0.50" this morning and 1.24" tonight for a 1.74" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Picked up 2.36" of rain for the day yesterday. Current temp 74/DP 72/RH 95% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 On 9/9/2020 at 9:25 AM, SACRUS said: That was centered in VA and was a 5.3. Felt different. This was more intense loud boom then the shaking. https://earthquaketrack.com/p/united-states/new-jersey/biggest that was a 5.8 and the only earthquake I've ever experienced- it was intense! didn't feel this one at all. Interesting that in 1944 NY also had a 5.8 and a week later a hurricane hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 71.5degs. Making this 66.5degs., or 2.5degs. BN. 73*(88%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast. 76* by 1pm. The GFS even with its +bias is bent on a 55* low near Sept. 15 and again a week later. Fish Storms are near: 23N 52W, 20N 39W, and possible new action starting near 12N 23W. [This one keeps turning north earlier and earlier each run and now looks like another stinkin' fish storm] For reference, Bermuda is at: 32.3N 64.8W, so the first point is about 1,000 miles se of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 8 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Very curious how this Fall unfolds, and if it'll be more of what we've seen recently. The Euro has Canadian high pressure dominating into late September. So it’s possible that we had an early last 90° of the season back in late August. It would be the earliest last 90° at Newark since 2011. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 04-07 (2010) 08-08 (2011) 69 Mean 05-21 09-12 113 Maximum 06-17 (2014) 10-02 (2019) 170 2019 05-26 (2019) 90 10-02 (2019) 96 128 2018 05-02 (2018) 90 09-06 (2018) 98 126 2017 05-17 (2017) 92 09-25 (2017) 90 130 2016 05-25 (2016) 91 09-23 (2016) 90 120 2015 05-25 (2015) 90 09-09 (2015) 91 106 2014 06-17 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 95 80 2013 05-30 (2013) 93 09-11 (2013) 96 103 2012 05-28 (2012) 91 09-07 (2012) 90 101 2011 05-30 (2011) 92 08-08 (2011) 93 69 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 So much more comfortable this morning. Looks like the chilliest air of the season over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 8:35 am, considerable clouds covered southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and parts of southeastern New York State. Mainly sunny skies prevailed across parts of Connecticut and eastern Long Island. During the morning, clouds will gradually dissipate across the rest of area. The remainder of the day will be partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures will likely reach mainly the upper 70s with a few lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 80° Even cooler air will arrive this weekend. Much of next week will feel like early autumn as the coolest air so far this season moves into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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