• Member Statistics

    16,056
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LostInSomers
    Newest Member
    LostInSomers
    Joined
moneypitmike

September 2020 Discussion

Recommended Posts

Am I gonna have to turn the heat in tonight?   I suspect I might need to....then back to ac for a day or 3 late week.   Starting to think we have a big snow winter ahead.   Ideal will be that with at or slightly above normal temperatures.   Eventually the water deficit will balance.  Still plenty of time for tropical fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Average days between frosts here is 140 days,looks like this year 122 will be the number if we frost this weekend as it looks.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Am I gonna have to turn the heat in tonight?   I suspect I might need to....then back to ac for a day or 3 late week.   Starting to think we have a big snow winter ahead.   Ideal will be that with at or slightly above normal temperatures.   Eventually the water deficit will balance.  Still plenty of time for tropical fun.

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

Not an unreasonable prog at this point..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

52/25

With these dews and the high pressure overhead, tonight should be very cold given what happened this morning.  There's no surface moisture to stop it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not an unreasonable prog at this point..

Personally , my feeling is decent December and then it ends . Like total collapse to mild and dry. I think the good December will lead to false hopes for folks 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

52/25

With these dews and the high pressure overhead, tonight should be very cold given what happened this morning.  There's no surface moisture to stop it.

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Personally , my feeling is decent December and then it ends . Like total collapse to mild and dry. I think the good December will lead to false hopes for folks 

Redux of last year?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

Yeah, I mean look at these dews right now.  This is a legit dry and cold air mass.

Anyone who can stay relatively calm tonight is going to get quite cold.  Maple Hollow should do well, ha.

200919132055.gif.f5d46af798579e72986ce153dd5ea046.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the big MOS bust this morning well before the high even crests overhead is a red flag. I’m thinking a lot of frosts and freezes the next two nights we’ll into SNE. Prob some more record lows in the rad spots. 

We haven’t had many mid September airmasses like this in the MOS record. When you get something anomalous you usually have to go a little more aggressive than the machine values. I think the rad pits radiated more than MOS expected. The wind numbers were in that 3-5 range for 6-9z, yet the pits went calm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We haven’t had many mid September airmasses like this in the MOS record. When you get something anomalous you usually have to go a little more aggressive than the machine values. I think the rad pits radiated more than MOS expected. The wind numbers were in that 3-5 range for 6-9z, yet the pits went calm. 

Yeah these dews are anomalously low. Add on the dryness of the ground and it’s a very good recipe for MOS being too conservative. 

This airmass is producing the classic Typhoon Tip “cobalt blue sky” right now

 

B9F0A238-EDCE-40B5-957C-081F81B99D3B.jpeg

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will likely be the earliest I’ve had to turn on the furnace in a very long time.  Only to turn it off a few days later...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I mean look at these dews right now.  This is a legit dry and cold air mass.

Anyone who can stay relatively calm tonight is going to get quite cold.  Maple Hollow should do well, ha.

200919132055.gif.f5d46af798579e72986ce153dd5ea046.gif

The breezes basically never stop here overnight so I have resigned myself to always being 5-10 degrees warmer than the rad pits on these clear cold nights. -10F versus -20F will have to do. LOL

I have a feeling I will compete on windchill honors, however.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Let’s go 1995...big mid Sept cold shot and then a torch in first 3-4 weeks of October until a big shift the final few days of the month changed the pattern and locked in the cold for about 10 weeks. 

My favorite winter ensued...

-although I was not a big fan of the thaw from Hades that late January early ('96) ...  holy hell was that savage pack annihilation.   I went from 35" in the level to essentially bear ground with ice puddle patches by the time the cold set back in early February...  I think the rest of the way we managed to stack up 18" a couple of times but settled those pack depths down ... Never again to see the big yard-stick milestone depth that season, but we kept getting snows late adding to the seasonal till too - couple 6"-10" blue deals in April.

Anyway, I remember October of 1995 differently then a torch the first 3 weeks tho ( by the way, the first 3-"4" weeks of October is just the whole month - lol ...) Anyway, I remember it as just the first 10-15 days being mild up at UML in the Merrimack Valley...so it may be gradation/latitude thing. I do remember it being latitude dependent when the first snow and sleety system came through around the 9th of Novie... That was the last time we saw bear ground until said thaw. But NYC was in the 60s when we were flipping between snow and sleet up there at school on the first system. Then HFD was snow and sleet on the next one, and we were all snow. It was like winter itself was backing down the coast like a BD... heh

It was like where ever you were, once the snow line got to you ... you didn't go back, 'spreading south and southwest' like glacier tendency in the air.

I remember around the 20th of October we started getting heavier frost mornings ... Yellow maple leaves were being cold pinched in calm dead fall morning cold around campus ... And the shade side of the Pawtucket water conduit, 50 feet high granite blocks that water trickles through due to hydrologic pressure ... the rivulets were freezing during those last 10 days of the month, and I remember seeing the ice still there in the shade 4pm just before sunset ...and commenting to self that it was interesting that ice was not melting ... It was steps in a process of never looking back.

Yeah...November was mid winter from the Lowell to Acton arc of Middlesex, period.  And December? Holy shit that was the coldest Dec I recall - I remember around the 10th of the month, a buddy and I were clamoring over snow piles negotiating sidewalks outside of pubs around downtown Boston, and a bank sign blinked 10 F ...  The snow was squealing under foot falls and we were like Jesus, get us the f out of this cold!   I remember thinking around Dec 21 how we'd already had a winter's worth of winter and autumn just ended.  

I've never seen a autumn relay into winter like that since... 2008 ... maybe close, with that 40" Dec but Novie was mild - I think... 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

95-96 and 06-07 are the most schizo winters of my experience, and they did it different ways.  06-07 was a simple split - thru Jan 13 it was heading for record ratter status, then became one of the better 2nd halves.  1st-2nd snowfall was 11" vs 84".

95-96 did it month by month, Dec thru April (totally cherrypicked dates):
                      Temp+/-    Precip   Snow
Dec 1-21:            -9.0       3.33"      34.0"
Dec 22-31:         +6.1       0.52"        6.0"
Jan 1-17:            -9.8       1.52"       20.0"
Jan 18-31:         +6.4       4.45"        7.0"
Feb 1-20:            -8.4        1.15"      15.0"      
Feb 21-29:       +12.5       2.40"        2.0"      
Mar 1-12:         -10.5        1.25"      15.0"  
Mar 13-27:         +4.0      0.94"         2.0"
Mar 28-Apr 15:  -3.4       2.25"       20.0"
Apr 16-30:          +1.0      3.73"           0"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yup, tuffen up butter cups! 

We like comfort.  Never understood the need to prove you’re ok being miserable...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I mean look at these dews right now.  This is a legit dry and cold air mass.

Anyone who can stay relatively calm tonight is going to get quite cold.  Maple Hollow should do well, ha.

200919132055.gif.f5d46af798579e72986ce153dd5ea046.gif

 

Outside of qpf issues, I usually remain pretty calm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My favorite winter ensued...

-although I was not a big fan of the thaw from Hades that late January early ('96) ...  holy hell was that savage pack annihilation.   I went from 35" in the level to essentially bear ground with ice puddle patches by the time the cold set back in early February...  I think the rest of the way we managed to stack up 18" a couple of times but settled those pack depths down ...  We kept getting snows late adding to the seasonal till too - couple 6"-10" blue deals in April.

Anyway, I remember October of 1995 differently then a torch the first 3 weeks tho ( by the way, the first 3-"4" weeks of October is just the whole month - lol ...) Anyway, I remember it as just the first 10-15 days being mild up at UML in the Merrimack Valley...so it may be gradation/latitude thing. I do remember it being latitude dependent when the first snow and sleety system came through around the 9th of Novie... That was the last time we saw bear ground until said thaw. But NYC was in the 60s when we were flipping between snow and sleet up there at school on the first system. Then HFD was snow and sleet on the next one, and we were all snow. It was like winter itself was backing down the coast like a BD... heh

It was like where ever you were, once the snow line got to you ... you didn't go back, 'spreading south and southwest' like glacier tendency in the air.

I remember around the 20th of October we started getting heavier frost mornings ... Yellow maple leaves were being cold pinched in calm dead fall morning cold around campus ... And the shade side of the Pawtucket water conduit, 50 feet high granite blocks that water trickles through due to hydrologic pressure ... the rivulets were freezing during those last 10 days of the month, and I remember seeing the ice still there in the shade 4pm just before sunset ...and commenting to self that it was interesting that ice was not melting ... It was steps in a process of never looking back.

Yeah...November was mid winter from the Lowell to Acton arc of Middlesex, period.  And December? Holy shit that was the coldest Dec I recall - I remember around the 10th of the month, a buddy and I were clamoring over snow piles negotiating sidewalks outside of pubs around downtown Boston, and a bank sign blinked 10 F ...  The snow was squealing under foot falls and we were like Jesus, get us the f out of this cold!   I remember thinking around Dec 21 how we'd already had a winter's worth of winter and autumn just ended.  

I've never seen a autumn relay into winter like that since... 2008 ... maybe close, with that 40" Dec but Novie was mild - I think... 

Yeah as great as that winter was, I’m always left with the “what could have been” feeling....

There’s some alternate universe where we avoid the epic cutters post-January 15th and instead maybe get a couple of “front enders” that CAD into 31F ZR over the interior and 35F along the coast and then we FROPA into a net gain of pack each cycle. That’s the winter where we finally achieve 50-60” pack on the level....of course, there’s always something to “ruin” it whether it is “too cold” like Feb 2015 with higher ratio powder that settles too quickly or the hellacious cutters of 1996 that beat down a 40-45” pack that was primed to crack 50” as it already had pretty high water content going back through those layers of storms from late November, December, and early January. Or 2011 where the music stopped after the February 1-2 storm...then we had a tepid thaw that settled most people back into the 18-20” range and that was all she wrote when the rest of the winter was nickle and dime and Ptype transition events. 

 

I did measure over 50” in a few spots in March 2001 but I never thought it was a true 50” pack because I also had spots in the low 40s. It averages out to around 46 but I even re-litigate that because there was such an obscene mess cleaning that snow up that I am never confident it was non-contaminated even 20-30 feet from walks/roads. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

This will likely be the earliest I’ve had to turn on the furnace in a very long time.  Only to turn it off a few days later...

I’d be shocked if we see a snowy winter. Tread lightly on mets here calling for that 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.