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Few clusters max rfall 2-3" and possible SVR Mon-Tue 8/24-25/20


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I see several reports of Snr in se NYS so far. At least something happened.  Looks like NYC done around 7p per reality and the too fast 12zspc href a lns hrdps. GFS terrible for the 18z-00z modeling. Whew. One thing.  Bases seem a little high so nice looking from the backside here in nW NJ but nw flow drying must be a negative factor on storm size so far

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Wow just got absolutely nailed here in Forest Hills. Came in absolutely ferocious, wind whipping like crazy, stuff started hitting our balcony window, ears started popping wonder if there was any rotation. 
 

wind looked stronger than tropical storm, I’d say easily 70 mph. 

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Just now, Rock888 said:

Wow just got absolutely nailed here in Forest Hills. Came in absolutely ferocious, wind whipping like crazy, stuff started hitting our balcony window, ears started popping wonder if there was any rotation. 
 

wind looked stronger than tropical storm, I’d say easily 70 mph. 

Looks like clear rotation on that cell, even now it is exists into the ocean

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Winds were absolutely ferocious here in Lynbrook from this storm. In 20 years of tracking thunderstorms I've never seen winds like that in a thunderstorm here. That's how rare Severe thunderstorms are on the south shore of Nassau County. Looking at the radar it looked like it was a bow echo for a short period of time, can anyone confirm?

 

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46 minutes ago, Rock888 said:

Wow just got absolutely nailed here in Forest Hills. Came in absolutely ferocious, wind whipping like crazy, stuff started hitting our balcony window, ears started popping wonder if there was any rotation. 
 

wind looked stronger than tropical storm, I’d say easily 70 mph. 

Similar here in Lynbrook.

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28 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Winds were absolutely ferocious here in Lynbrook from this storm. In 20 years of tracking thunderstorms I've never seen winds like that in a thunderstorm here. That's how rare Severe thunderstorms are on the south shore of Nassau County. Looking at the radar it looked like it was a bow echo for a short period of time, can anyone confirm?

 

I’m thinking it was a microburst. We had same cell come through in Queens. 

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So the wrap, as of 9PM tonight...  not much to fill the thread, very tiny areas Sunday-Monday. A bit better today in the SPC slight risk but imo, this didn't do justice to the potential for a couple of reasons. 1) generally w-nw flow in the boundary layer which tends to be a drying downslope flow. 2) I just don't think there was enough convergence at the surface... (wsw wind ahead of cfp vs nw behind).  However, we got something.

The HRDPS generally did best. The SPC HREF had an idea but too far west in NJ. The HRRR after 10z/25 was not very helpful (too little), except it spoke of uncertainty.  The 00z-12z/25 GFS was not very good after 18z/25... just didn't have a clue past the Appalachians.  GGEM and UK were ok in a meager sense and EC had something.   

You're welcome to add perspective.  otherwise, that was my last attempt at this thread. 927P/25

attached Storm reports and the OKX STP...one strong long continuous cell was the Port Jervis-High Point toward NYC along the NJ/NYS border... stands out a bit in the STP. 

 

Screen Shot 2020-08-25 at 9.18.44 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-25 at 9.28.55 PM.png

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