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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

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2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

 

This didn't really weaken on that jet.

If it had 130 mph sustained with gusts to 150 slamming into NC from the S, the jet took this up so fast, that the center would have had max sustained  115/120 with gusts to 130/140.

That's all it takes. You have 29c water all the way to Hatteras.

This didn't fall apart, it weakened some by the time it got to 40 because it rocketed NNE.

We are lucky DR was sitting there.

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6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

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5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

It's hard to compare bc this storm wasn't purely tropical.  But in your scenario, the main difference would be that areas near and just east of the center would have been hit much harder. 

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26 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Nice! Congrats. 

F*cking rain/snow lines might be even more annoying now lol

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's hard to compare bc this storm wasn't purely tropical.  But in your scenario, the main difference would be that areas near and just east of the center would have been hit much harder. 

Yes, we owe the DR a hug.

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19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

Or the Hazel-type scenario (assuming you’re not talking about a purely-tropical cyclone and you’re focusing strictly on winds).  I know that the winds here were intense with that one, but did she have a dry eastern side as well?

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1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

It’s saying 95k out as of 4:46. If that’s correct that’s really good. Sandy was 900k and even March 2010 was 250k. Maybe it is because we have lost all the biggest trees over the years like was said. Maybe the more aggressive tree trimming and “hardening the system” helped?.. but then again that might be giving too much credit to PSEG. 

It’s been showing the exact same number for 4 hours. It hasn’t updated since 2:30 pm. 

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Only in the year 2020 could I see Isles and Rangers fans all over social media complaining they could not watch/now can't watch their team's game because of power outages...in AUGUST!

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its going to be a week or more in some places. If it gets hot I'm going to a hotel 

Yeah if its 368K I think most are back by Day 5 but some will take 7-10, very few, but some.  I think Gloria and Sandy all were over 1 million

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Trees down throughout my area. Some roads impassable. In my area this was similar to Irene as far as wind goes. We had little rain, 1/10 of an inch. Really surprised how little it rained. Fortunately for those on the coast, it did not hit at high tide.

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Widespread damage here in Jersey City. Trees and wires down in numerous areas. No idea how I still have power but i ain't complaining. 

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those Nassau  ones seem way too low given the damage

The ones on the south shore are definitely low

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FSU's phase space diagram of the GFS indicates Isaias was still hanging onto its tropical characteristics as a very marginally warm core storm at 1:00 PM.  Impressive at such a latitude.

1.phase1.png

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Just now, Rjay said:

The ones on the south shore are definitely low

 

There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy.  I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season.  I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that.  Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy.  I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season.  I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that.  Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down

For sure. That monday evening nearing high tide,  we were most definitely gusting 75-90 mph throughout nyc metro. If i remember correctly there was ~85mph wind gust around 8pm at kewr

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