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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Had this been a 3 in the SE, this would have been a devastating storm for the NJ coast and accross LI.

Now you know how you could get a major up here, if it's a major in the SE and catches the jet just right and takes a track like this did, you would have seen a very ugly outcome 

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

On tracks like these, dry air and shear get to them very quickly. You saw how fast the sun came out this afternoon-all the moisture in the storm was pushed out ahead of it. I will say it definitely would’ve been worse if it had 12 more hours over water near NC. It definitely was organizing at the end and couldve made it to Cat 2. 

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
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5 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

if this was a strong 3 in the SE ( NC landfall) , it would have hit the NJ shore and  LI as a 2.

It's hard to compare bc this storm wasn't purely tropical.  But in your scenario, the main difference would be that areas near and just east of the center would have been hit much harder. 

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's hard to compare bc this storm wasn't purely tropical.  But in your scenario, the main difference would be that areas near and just east of the center would have been hit much harder. 

Yes, we owe the DR a hug.

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its just hard to get it.  Most majors occur in September in that area and by then normally the environment from JAX-NC coast is not usually as good so the systems tend to weaken on that bend.  The best way to get a 3 here is the 1938 setup

Or the Hazel-type scenario (assuming you’re not talking about a purely-tropical cyclone and you’re focusing strictly on winds).  I know that the winds here were intense with that one, but did she have a dry eastern side as well?

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tdp146 said:

It’s saying 95k out as of 4:46. If that’s correct that’s really good. Sandy was 900k and even March 2010 was 250k. Maybe it is because we have lost all the biggest trees over the years like was said. Maybe the more aggressive tree trimming and “hardening the system” helped?.. but then again that might be giving too much credit to PSEG. 

It’s been showing the exact same number for 4 hours. It hasn’t updated since 2:30 pm. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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Just now, Rjay said:

The ones on the south shore are definitely low

 

There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy.  I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season.  I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that.  Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down

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SRRTA22

SRRTA22

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

There is no doubt winds were lower than Sandy.  I guess we had more leaves off the trees than we realized because way more trees are down today but for some reason I recall that being a late foliage season.  I felt winds in Merrick were 80-90 during Sandy and the obs at ISP and JFK of 94 and 75 sort of confirm that.  Today was 65-75 and way more trees went down

For sure. That monday evening nearing high tide,  we were most definitely gusting 75-90 mph throughout nyc metro. If i remember correctly there was ~85mph wind gust around 8pm at kewr

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said:

For sure. That monday evening nearing high tide,  we were most definitely gusting 75-90 mph throughout nyc metro. If i remember correctly there was ~85mph wind gust around 8pm at kewr

For most near the coast Sandy was definitely higher. Given the tree damage where I am though we must’ve had gusts into the 70s today. 

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weathermedic

weathermedic

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No way brooklyn only got 46mph gusts

Way too low

Kingsborough College on their Davis sensor gusted to 64 mph. Don't know if it meets official NWS anemometer criteria though.

My station (which is shielded by a trees to it's east) gusted to 45 mph, so I am sure they had higher winds in the borough.

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