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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, larrye said:

The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.

Euro and Ukie are similar 

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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

If the further west track on some of the models is correct then that would give areas in the immediate metro area less rainfall but put those areas in a better position for higher winds and maybe some severe weather including a few tornadoes. We will have to see how the PRE sets up later tomorrow and tomorrow night but I suspect that may be mostly north and west of the metro area. I would still expect 2-4" of rainfall in and around the city (especially the city on west) with locally higher amounts. Lets see how things develop.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Winds are really strong in our area

Gusts are over hurricane  status

FB_IMG_1596432103310.jpg

Wow! Yeah the Jersey Shore and Long Island are gonna get clocked with winds. I’m surprised people are downplaying it. Nearly all the models show hurricane force gusts for the shore points... Care to share the ukie wind map?

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Wow! Yeah the Jersey Shore and Long Island are gonna get clocked with winds. I’m surprised people are downplaying it. Nearly all the models show hurricane force gusts for the shore points... Care to share the ukie wind map?

Got it from a paid source

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Good Monday morning everyone here in the NYC forum: Will add a cumulative rainfall map from yesterdays nw NJ totals, done 924AM. Legend has the conversion to inches...mostly e PA and nw NJ. 

See NHC/SPC/WPC/NWS office discussions for details on tonights, and Tuesday's separate event rainfalls but all tropical related, also surge/wind/isolated SVR and maybe even a TOR near and east of the center. 

PRE  tonight?-no guarantee, with EC modeling way west  to near ITH-BFD while other models 'try' to develop something in western NJ or eastern PA tonight northward into the Hud Valley-Catskills-Berks by dawn Tuesday. Very unsure how this will work--could be pockets of 4+ inches or 1 or 2 long narrow bands?.

Isaias wind Tuesday afternoon-evening. 00z/3 ensembles have track axis slightly different: EPS slightly east of GEFS.  No matter, it appears to me that LI, especially e LI and parts of CT will see squally wind gusts of 50-60 knots, power outages but not that much rain. Sometimes, these TS's have a surprise couple of hours of wrap-around strong west wind of 40-50 kt on the underside of the departing storm - that would be Tuesday evening for us.  

Isaias direct rainfall: Heaviest rain and associated FF risk should be in NJ/se NYS and ne PA for our NYC forum. Details to be determined but am going to post FFG graphics to show some of the more vulnerable locations, presuming 4+" occurs Tuesday afternoon.  MARFC 1 hour FFG blue colors I'd say are vulnerable pending heavy rain actually occurring, and then added the 6 hr guidance where 4" in 6 hours I'd think would prompt a warning somewhere in that county where guidance is under 4". Now we need to see what happens.  

A side note: not major but possibly of interest.  One thing that does happen with tropical southerly winds that I noticed in the past, lift going over the CT shore line enhances rainfall remarkably a few miles north of I95 in CT.  Something to see if occurs tonight-Tuesday.

Power outages: while concentrated east of the center,  I can also see problems over interior NJ and se NYS in squalls, broken tree limbs-associated power outages Tuesday afternoon-evening. Not saying there will be, but in my mind, not out of the question. 

I'll ensure I have enough cash on hand in case of any long duration power outage, and a full tank of gas, even here in far nw NJ. Not likely that this will come in handy here, but trying to think ahead. 

Added 00z/3 GEFS/EPS 850 wind ensembles for 18z Tue, as well as the brutal operational UKMET 850 wind field and the less impressive GGEM.  639A/3

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 5.25.52 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 5.27.15 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 5.28.08 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-08-03_at_5_29.22_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 6.28.34 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 6.26.43 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-03 at 8.40.20 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-08-03_at_9_28.35_AM.png

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models ramping him up post landfall is pretty concerning given we'll likely be on its eastern side. 

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher. 

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher. 


A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

Upton has me in southern brooklyn gusting to 70... do you see that as well on soundings?

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Sportybx

Sportybx

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Upton has me in southern brooklyn gusting to 70... do you see that as well on soundings?

That’s with the current track . If this happened to  get stronger ( with everything it went through ) I can see it happening . Can we see hurricane gusts here in the tri State area ? I believe we are also in MOON tide , any significant coastal flooding you think . 

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

I'll believe it when I see it.  Looks to be a soaker.  I wonder if any sport betting sites have the odds for the wind field?  I'd like a piece of that action...

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The  trough interaction or partial phase will keep this stronger further north than usual from landfalling systems of similar strength in the Carolinas. You can see the model soundings on the 0z Euro and GFS supporting gusts to 70 mph or greater now on Long Island. So the TPC just adjusted their winds higher. 


A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Lindenhurst
    - Sayville
    - Patchogue

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 75 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday afternoon
          until Tuesday evening

 

 

The only saving grace is that this storm will be moving quickly. Had it been a slow mover, we would probably be talking rain totals reminiscent of Hurricane Irene

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lee59

lee59

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

I'll believe it when I see it.  Looks to be a soaker.  I wonder if any sport betting sites have the odds for the wind field?  I'd like a piece of that action...

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea I believe the only place to see winds like that would be at the beaches and over the water.  Some of the airports may see some gusts near 50-60.

Agreed, maybe JFK hits 60 but overall it’s 40-50 away from the island. The south shore was of JFK may gust to 70 somewhere with the LLJ enhancement 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Always a risk for some tornadoes East of the track where feeder bands can pivot through. Other than that on the current path I wouldn’t expect much rain East of the city, maybe an inch if lucky. What we get here will come from the few feeder bands which comes down to luck. The heavy rain just like with Fay will be over NJ/Hudson Valley. Maybe some gusts over 60 on the coast which could knock some trees down/power out. Also some coastal flooding likely from the onshore wind/surge which should be fairly minor but the full moon will make it worse. 

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

I'm not overly convinced yet that this is a high impact event here.

12z spaghetti guidance is fairly tightly clustered for the center to pass near Philly and then up over Western NJ and into Upstate NY. 

If that track takes place, we would be on the stronger, Eastern side of the system, but this will be transitioning to extra tropical so most of the activity should be just North and West of the track. I question how strong the winds will be, especially outside of convection which looks to be sporadic or scattered at best. 

Just have a feeling this ends up being a 4-6 hour event with a couple inches of rain and some gusty winds. The center moves from near the NC/SC border to near Albany in about 12 hours and I'm not seeing much of a PRE on current modeling.

 

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