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August 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Over the past hour, the temperature crashed from a daily high of 93 degrees to 73 degrees in Philadelphia as a heavy thunderstorm moved in. 1.00” rain was recorded during for the hourly period ending at 2:54 pm.

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Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ.

 

NY Harb Entrance 1950               74  200/  6/  8 1016.2          1/ 4
20 S Fire Island 1950               76  230/  4/  4 1016.3          2/ 4
Great South Bay  1930            77     170/ 10/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1950            76     220/  4/  4 1016.9          2/ 4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               75                N/A           2/11
Hudson Canyon    1950               80              1017.4          2/10
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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ.

 

NY Harb Entrance 1950               74  200/  6/  8 1016.2          1/ 4
20 S Fire Island 1950               76  230/  4/  4 1016.3          2/ 4
Great South Bay  1930            77     170/ 10/ 10   N/A
23 SSW Montauk P 1950            76     220/  4/  4 1016.9          2/ 4
15 E Barnegat Li 1926               75                N/A           2/11
Hudson Canyon    1950               80              1017.4          2/10

onshore flow this weekend should keep the water warm (I'm paying attention as we're heading to OC NJ Saturday for a week)

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Temperatures reached the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today. In addition, scattered heavy thunderstorms brought drenching rains to parts of the area. Philadelphia picked up 1.44" rain and New York City received 1.76" rain.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 12):

Albany: 13 (2019: 12 days)
Allentown: 23 (2019: 24 days)
Baltimore: 40 (2019: 59 days)
Boston: 14 (2019: 15 days)
Burlington: 20 (2019: 8 days)
Harrisburg: 29 (2019: 33 days)
Islip: 6 (2019: 8 days)
New York City-JFK: 10 (2019: 7 days)
New York City-LGA: 30 (2019: 26 days)
New York City-NYC: 18 (2019: 15 days)
Newark: 27 (2019: 28 days)
Philadelphia: 32 (2019: 35 days)
Scranton: 23 (2019: 12 days)
Washington, DC: 41 (2019: 62 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 21 (2019: 19 days)
...Expected: 21 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The next several days will be somewhat cooler than today. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s and then the upper 70s and lower 80s during the coming weekend.

Nevertheless, the current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, paving the way for a solidly warmer than normal summer and a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around August 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely into the start of autumn. During the autumn, La Niña conditions will likely develop.

The SOI was -8.56.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.627.

On August 11, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.425 (RMM). The August 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.793.

Some of the guidance suggests that the MJO could be in Phase 8 in late August. The convergence of the MJO's passage through phase 8 and revived tropical cyclone activity could suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat during the August 20-September 10 period. Phases 8-1-2 have coincided with a cluster of East Coast landfalls. Belle (1976) and Gloria (1985) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 8 at a low amplitude. Sandy (2012) and Fay (2020) made landfall when the MJO was in Phase 2.

The MJO's recent passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above has been uncommon during the first half of August. During the 1981-2019 period only 1983 and 2019 saw the MJO move through Phase 4 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the first half of August. August 1983 had the longest such stretch. Both cases saw the second half of August average generally warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Both cases also featured a warmer than normal September.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.0°.

 

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8/12

PHL: 93
TEB: 92
LGA: 92
EWR: 91
ACY: 91
NYC: 90
New Brnswck: 90
BLM: 89
TTN: 89
ISP: 87
JFK: 86

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11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

87 here today, lots of clouds and storms around

I made it to 89 today just south of the storms.    FRG made it to 88.

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86/75 split here today, 0.31” of rainfall.

Might be the first time this summer that my high was lower than ISP, though the rain is to blame.

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2 minutes ago, Cfa said:

86/75 split here today, 0.31” of rainfall.

Might be the first time this summer that my high was lower than ISP, though the rain is to blame.

I think it's the first time this summer my high was higher than FRG lol.  It's been either the same or a degree or 2 lower.  

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think it's the first time this summer my high was higher than FRG lol.  It's either the same or a degree or 2 lower.  

Lol ISP is either the same or 1-2 degrees lower than here. This summer it’s been consistently lower though.

FRG is turning into LGA lol.

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3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Lol ISP is either the same or 1-2 degrees lower than here. This summer it’s been consistently lower though.

FRG is turning into LGA lol.

All that construction around FRG. Hotel is being proposed as well now. 
 

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/hotel-republic-airport-pandemic-hampton-inn-1.46540093

 

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4 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

All that construction around FRG. Hotel is being proposed as well now. 
 

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/hotel-republic-airport-pandemic-hampton-inn-1.46540093

 

I’m surprised they’re putting a hotel over there, I always thought it was somewhat of a private airport with only personal planes, unless they’re trying to change that.

But yeah that area has become busier, lots of shopping centers over there, loads of cars, concrete, and asphalt.

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The next 8 days are averaging 78.5degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is +3.0[79.0].         Should be about +3.0[78.8] by the 21st.

77*(90%RH) here at 6am., dirty sky.       81*(80%RH) by 3pm.

 

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Morning thoughts...

At 9:20 am, a cluster of slow-moving thunderstorms was approaching Newark. It was also expanding eastward, meaning that a shower or thundershower could occur in New York City this morning. 

Further north, several hours of sunshine should be the rule in such areas as Poughkeepsie. Much of the region will likely see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 80s.

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71 and raining.  0.16 in the bucket (C-NJ).  More of the same the rest of today and tomorrow.  Clouds and storms will keep a lid on temps the next two days.  We also continue the Friday rain theme this past month and /half.  Saturday onshore flow but better day of the weekend under sunny skies.  Sunday more storms and clouds lingering into Monday.  Stagnant flow could produce slow moving heavy storms over the area.  Work week again near normal / humid with highs in the 80s.  A warming trend is likely by the end of next work week into the weekend of the 8/21 as the western Atlantic ridge is nosing west and the Rockies ridge is expanding east.  Still favoring a very warm finish to August with some of that strong heat building in the plains ejecting east for a couple days before months end.

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12 hours ago, Cfa said:

Lol ISP is either the same or 1-2 degrees lower than here. This summer it’s been consistently lower though.

FRG is turning into LGA lol.

 

12 hours ago, uofmiami said:

All that construction around FRG. Hotel is being proposed as well now. 
 

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/suffolk/hotel-republic-airport-pandemic-hampton-inn-1.46540093

 


We are seeing something different this summer between FRG and ISP. Airport plaza shopping center opened around 2000. So that area around the airport has been built out for about 20 years now. You can see how ISP and FRG temperatures have been very close during July since 2010. They have traded places being warmer than the other site. But this is the first time that FRG was so much warmer than ISP. So perhaps it has something to do with the prevailing wind direction, record high dew points, and record SSTs . Other than that, I am not sure what could cause such a big disparity between the two sites.

 

July......FRG....ISP

2020....80.6....77.7

2019....77.5....78.1

2018....75.8....75.5

2017....75.0....75.0

2016....77.3....76.8

2015....76.8....75.8

2014....73.7....75.2

2013...78.1.....78.0

2012....76.4.....76.2

2011.....78.0....77.6

2010.....79.7.....78.0
 

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 


We are seeing something different this summer between FRG and ISP. Airport plaza shopping center opened around 2000. So that area around the airport has been built out for about 20 years now. You can see how ISP and FRG temperatures have been very close during July since 2010. They have traded places being warmer than the other site. But this is the first time that FRG was so much warmer than ISP. So perhaps it has something to do with the prevailing wind direction, record high dew points, and record SSTs . Other than that, I am not sure what could cause such a big disparity between the two sites.

 

July......FRG....ISP

2020....80.6....77.7

2019....77.5....78.1

2018....75.8....75.5

2017....75.0....75.0

2016....77.3....76.8

2015....76.8....75.8

2014....73.7....75.2

2013...78.1.....78.0

2012....76.4.....76.2

2011.....78.0....77.6

2010.....79.7.....78.0
 

 

I've taken my son to FRG to watch planes land, etc never looked for the ASOS at the airport.  Next time, I'll take a look.  I would figure wind direction, especially if more onshore from the S or SE, would favor warmer temps at FRG than ISP.

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31 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I've taken my son to FRG to watch planes land, etc never looked for the ASOS at the airport.  Next time, I'll take a look.  I would figure wind direction, especially if more onshore from the S or SE, would favor warmer temps at FRG than ISP.

Looks like the ASOS is on a grassy patch just SSE of the Home Depot garden center. You can just make it out on the bottom right portion of this satellite photo. 

6DEB9574-0C0F-4B64-BBEF-1E736F838C8E.thumb.jpeg.57dbfb998d916a3b6d3326e082bb12fa.jpeg

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

 


We are seeing something different this summer between FRG and ISP. Airport plaza shopping center opened around 2000. So that area around the airport has been built out for about 20 years now. You can see how ISP and FRG temperatures have been very close during July since 2010. They have traded places being warmer than the other site. But this is the first time that FRG was so much warmer than ISP. So perhaps it has something to do with the prevailing wind direction, record high dew points, and record SSTs . Other than that, I am not sure what could cause such a big disparity between the two sites.

 

July......FRG....ISP

2020....80.6....77.7

2019....77.5....78.1

2018....75.8....75.5

2017....75.0....75.0

2016....77.3....76.8

2015....76.8....75.8

2014....73.7....75.2

2013...78.1.....78.0

2012....76.4.....76.2

2011.....78.0....77.6

2010.....79.7.....78.0
 

 

How did you find Farmingdale weather stats?

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