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Winter 2020-21 Discussion


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38 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman will be happy. Adds more ammunition to the very warm and potentially snow-less winter of 20-21

 

If the CFS is correct, very strong easterlies return across the ENSO regions in mid to late November, this would support another robust round of La Niña strengthening 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html

The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired.

Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots.
Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did.

 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Ray we don’t put Keith’s out because the new service we are with has some paying vendors that use it.

Ray think that some of those guys who we met way back then at beginning  who were barely 20 are now 35-40 years old! I was just 47 or so when first got into weather boards

 

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6 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Ray we don’t put Keith’s out because the new service we are with has some paying vendors that use it.

Ray think that some of those guys who we met way back then at beginning  who were barely 20 are now 35-40 years old! I was just 47 or so when first got into weather boards

 

I know....been 15 years for me!

I was 25

Our outlooks seem pretty similar, though you are a bit colder.

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Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing.  Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter.

I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16.  Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing.  Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter.

I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16.  Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

Let's hope, lol

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13 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing.  Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter.

I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16.  Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

Of course --- NWP never verifies when it shows good for us, but modeled bad setups always verify 100%! :rolleyes:

IIRC, this time last year we had exactly that: no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. NWP and most outlooks were calling for a great winter with lots of potential.

Signs looked great going into last winter, and that turned into a disaster. So maybe things look terrible going into this winter, but there's still plenty of time and luck for the reality to turn out at least mediocre (which would surpass last year) or get us somewhat close to median. 

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Things have changed over last 20-25 years. ENSO used to be the supreme determinator.  It no longer is.  Mid Atlantic for sure needs a favorable cold air delivery set up more than ever but the rest of the indexes and SSW and such is still largely unproven and the addition or deletion of one into a combo of other indexes throws the whole package off. 

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51 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

I just viewed isotherm’s winter forecast. As usual well thought out and probably right. Much below normal snowfall for me. And February is an all out furnace. Winter cancel?

I am not as smart as he is, but my thoughts have been that Jan is our best shot for cold air outbreaks, with a possible +PNA and or -EPO. I expect a big fat zero irt help in the AO/NAO domain, minus some very transient bootleg ridging(fake -NAO).

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