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wdrag

Tropical Storm Fay

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Hi. 12z/8 modeling still quite variable, some suggesting heavy rainfall, especially LI-CT.  As of the 2PM Wednesday NHC TWO---70% chance of developing into a tropical system. Usually,  for heavy rain, and tracking a tropical system. I try to follow the 850MB vort.  East-southeasterly Inflow suggests a period (duration unknown) of heavy rain much of the NYC forum sometime Friday or Friday night-Saturday morning in PWAT greater than 2.25". I tend to focus on heavy rain being very close to the 850 vort center.   May see brief gusts near 35 kt for a short time in squalls near the center NJ, LI coasts.  I don't think tidal flooding is major concern, and it will have to be perfect timing with the high tide cycle since we're descending into the lower part of the tide cycles. We may not see much lightning with this, except in initial intensification Thursday or Friday. 

Others should comment and adjust the thinking and keep track of everything.  Not sure who moves this thread to Tropical "if "it becomes named FAY?

Thanks for all!

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I'd be inclined to keep the thread here. There will be other threads in that forum that people can refer to but some of us don't migrate over there.

From what little I can see I agree with you that the coasts will be most affected but I always wonder if orographics will come into play up here in "the hills" with tropical systems. There have been a few over the years that were awesome up here with double the rainfall they saw south of here.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I'd be inclined to keep the thread here. There will be other threads in that forum that people can refer to but some of us don't migrate over there.

From what little I can see I agree with you that the coasts will be most affected but I always wonder if orographics will come into play up here in "the hills" with tropical systems. There have been a few over the years that were awesome up here with double the rainfall they saw south of here.

Definitely-especially if the low does end up a bit inland and southerly flow ends up moving uphill. More rain is always helpful in the summer where most T-storms stay inland and where we are near the coast dries up, so hopefully it stays closer to the coast. We'll see-doesn't look like it will be over a big area generally so smaller shifts in the track could mean significantly more/less rain. As usual in the NE, along and left of the track probably gets the most. 

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I'm wary of any tropical systems with the name F*y due to previous experiences. All that notwithstanding, this is what we need to officially bust the drought.

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3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Is there a way to predict how much lightning activity will be in the area during the storm?

Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers 

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43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely-especially if the low does end up a bit inland and southerly flow ends up moving uphill. More rain is always helpful in the summer where most T-storms stay inland and where we are near the coast dries up, so hopefully it stays closer to the coast. We'll see-doesn't look like it will be over a big area generally so smaller shifts in the track could mean significantly more/less rain. As usual in the NE, along and left of the track probably gets the most. 

Would think we would have a better handle on things tomorrow. We could use the rain here.

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A couple snippets from NWS Upton's ADF

 

Low pressure will move up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday,
passing over the region Friday night into Saturday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially Friday afternoon
and evening likely just north and east of the surface low as it
pulls subtropical Atlantic moisture. Still low confidence on
location of the heavy rain potential.

 

There is increasing potential for a moderate to heavy rainfall
event Friday into Saturday as a coastal system moves up the Mid-
Atlantic coast. Exact timing and track are still uncertain, but
this system has the potential to produce at least 1 to 2 inches
of rain with higher amounts possible with heavier bands.

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Mt Holly

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We continue to keep a very close eye on the low that will be
approaching our region from the south on Thursday night. The
guidance has been trending westward with the track, so the
feature may pass over or very near our region from Friday into
Friday night.

The low is not forecast to be particularly strong by the time
it reaches our area, so the wind is not much of a concern.
However, it will have a good deal of moisture associated with
it. There is the potential for widespread heavy rain in
northeastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania. The recent heavy rainfall in parts of our region
has increased our susceptibility to flooding. We will work to
refine the threat area as we get closer to the event. It appears
as though most of the heavy rain will lift to our north on
Friday night.

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From the NHC earlier today

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern 
South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and 
portions of eastern North Carolina.  The low is expected to move 
northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer 
Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along 
the mid-Atlantic coast Friday.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or 
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so. 
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally 
heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions 
of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern 
New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible 
along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday and along the 
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday.  
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system 
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service 
office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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1 hour ago, TriPol said:

If we can get this low to move a little bit to the East, we'll be in the jackpot.

Speak for yourself. Any further East and West of the city will see minimal impacts.

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Both nams are further east than their prior runs.

3k nam is still west of the 12k fwiw and actually ends up in a similar spot to the18z run.  

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Two camps in the 0Z suite.  Camp 1 shows about 2-4" of rain for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (and points within 50-75 miles of 95) on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast, while camp 2 has 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore, for what it's worth.  More tracking on tap...

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2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Two camps in the 0Z suite.  Camp 1 shows about 2-4" of rain for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (and points within 50-75 miles of 95) on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast, while camp 2 has 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore, for what it's worth.  More tracking on tap...

The 6z NAM has the low going right over NYC. Perfect track for 3-4 inch rain totals. 

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12 hours ago, David-LI said:

Is there a way to predict how much lightning activity will be in the area during the storm?

I rely on ECMWF lightning density... will check soon.  Normally, tropical doesn't show much lightning, except in periods of strong intensification.  Tropical experts should correct me on this if I'm in error. 

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