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Tropical Storm Fay


wdrag
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45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why are people using mesoscale models for tropical? I’m surprised the NAM isn’t showing a hurricane. The latest run of the HWRF has landfall in SW NJ 15z Friday with a ton of rain in banding for the area. 
 

Agree that it’s a fast mover but PWAT’s approach 3” for about a 6 hour period. System will be juiced and winds are decently strong aloft so any stronger convection could help mix down strong gusts. 
 

And since system will be driving up the Gulf Stream, it’s possible that it will be deepening as it approaches.
 

 

Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective).  Also, not sure how "tropical" this system will really be.

Atlantic Sea Temperatures

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Jackpot over eastern PA

gfs_apcpn_neus_13.png

I'm actually in eastern PA for this one, vs being in SW Long Island lol.  See that darkest shade of purple in eastern PA?  I'm in the northern part of that dark blob, about 2,000 ft in elevation (near Lake Harmony.)  Do you really think the impacts here will be worse vs my "regular" home in SW Nassau County?

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2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective).  

Atlantic Sea Temperatures

It should be ventilated by the trough building into the Ohio Valley. Good timing as a day later and it would have kicked it OTS instead.

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I'm actually in eastern PA for this one, vs being in SW Long Island lol.  See that darkest shade of purple in eastern PA?  I'm in the northern part of that dark blob, about 2,000 ft in elevation (near Lake Harmony.)  Do you really think the impacts here will be worse vs my "regular" home in SW Nassau County?

Im in that area this weekend too. Right on Big Boulder Lake.


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7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Im in that area this weekend too. Right on Big Boulder Lake.


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Hi there, neighbor! :-)  I guess you too got those storms yesterday?  We've gotten heavy rains every other day this week- Monday, Wednesday and now hopefully Friday.  I'll be back in Long Island next week and hope to catch a 100 degree day there at the end of the week ;-)  This is exciting weather for summer!

 

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds.

often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low.  With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low.  With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east

Another garbage model lol.

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3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

As of now all the heavy weather is well east of the center. Have to watch and see if this holds.

Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track.

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

often as these systems move north into our latitude, the big rains shift to the north and western side of the low.  With that said, the 12z Canadian shows what you're talking about and keeps the convection off to the east

The CMC? That gives us a lot of rain.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Heavy rain in any tropical type system up here is west of the track. That will shift as it comes north. 

Right, this has happened numerous times..... heaviest rainfall is west of the track and highest winds are east of the track.  Floyd illustrated this well, but there were numerous other examples of this.  Another example is Bertha from July 1996 that came over JFK with 65 mph winds.....Babylon recorded hurricane force gusts at around 75 mph but the heaviest rains were over the Poconos where 7" of rain was recorded.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you're paying too much attention to the mini low centers and not the general circulation 

Regardless as to the exact track of the low, the rain made it much further into PA than the prior run. It's going to matter with such a compact system.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Because it’s tropical. If this was a cold core system it would be on the NW side. Once it moves North it will shift to the North and NW of the track.

This is true in most cases, Hurricane Gloria and Bob both examples. This is not completely tropical at this point and the precip could be well north of the center and more directly above the center rather than completely west.

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