NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 18z HMON was a solid hit for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: no it doesn't Yes it does, post the next frame. Moves NW. But I’m sure you were so excited to say I was wrong that you missed that detail. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Tropical models shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 it winds up north of philly but crosses to its east. i'm done nitpicking the hwrf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 thread theme song. where's my TWC local on the 8s crew at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Vice-Regent said: Here are some pics from earlier to do this event justice. The cover is like the book right. Enjoy guys. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Last minute trends look west. Not ideal for East of NYC but whatever. Hopefully it’s at least enough rain here to green up the lawns for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 the nam shows the low and mid level centers separating. that happened with the 1903 hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 33 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam Nice. Jackpot over NYC. What are the ratios? 10:1? 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 If the center can align better with the mlc then she could get to 60-65mph. Doesn't look bad on IR. I'm predicting stronger impacts than currently forecast. Some 6"+ amounts likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the center can align better with the mlc then she could get to 60-65mph. Doesn't look bad on IR. I'm predicting stronger impacts than currently forecast. Some 6"+ amounts likely. track has all the ear markings for 2-5 inches coastal New Jersey. not expecting much in my area. Inch or so with some decent wind gust. congrats Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 17 minutes ago, hooralph said: Nice. Jackpot over NYC. What are the ratios? 10:1? With ratios and banding could be lollis to 60”!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the center can align better with the mlc then she could get to 60-65mph. Doesn't look bad on IR. I'm predicting stronger impacts than currently forecast. Some 6"+ amounts likely. I would like to note, as a born weenie, that the NHC gives JFK a 1% chance of seeing 1-minute sustained hurricane-force winds. I live in hope that the endless insanity that is 2020 gives us a landfalling NJ hurricane in July. Go ahead, give me the weenie reaction, your jeers mean nothing to me. Your weenies sustain me. ...wait let me say that a different way. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the nam shows the low and mid level centers separating. that happened with the 1903 hurricane Was that the one that hooked into Atlantic City? Closest analog to Sandy. We might be revisiting that in a month or two at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: I would like to note, as a born weenie, that the NHC gives JFK a 1% chance of seeing 1-minute sustained hurricane-force winds. I live in hope that the endless insanity that is 2020 gives us a landfalling NJ hurricane in July. Go ahead, give me the weenie reaction, your jeers mean nothing to me. Your weenies sustain me. ...wait let me say that a different way. It hasn't been that rare to see a TS make landfall in NJ....we had Irene in 2011 and then Sandy 2012. I dont get this unprecedented July thing, the waters are just as warm in July as they are in August. The warmest they usually get up around here are low to mid 70s and that's where we are now. Upper 70s down by Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 21 minutes ago, Animal said: track has all the ear markings for 2-5 inches coastal New Jersey. not expecting much in my area. Inch or so with some decent wind gust. congrats Monmouth County forecasts are for 2-3" in eastern PA and in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It hasn't been that rare to see a TS make landfall in NJ....we had Irene in 2011 and then Sandy 2012. I dont get this unprecedented July thing, the waters are just as warm in July as they are in August. The warmest they usually get up around here are low to mid 70s and that's where we are now. Upper 70s down by Atlantic City. Honestly I don't have the empirical evidence at hand, I assumed peak Gulf Stream temps were reached August/September. That being said, it's still a climatological anomaly. Whether because of temperatures or typical seasonal weather patterns that allow for it to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Fay looks good on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Honestly I don't have the empirical evidence at hand, I assumed peak Gulf Stream temps were reached August/September. That being said, it's still a climatological anomaly. Whether because of temperatures or typical seasonal weather patterns that allow for it to happen. You're right about that, I just think it has to be a different reason other than SST. Maybe July normally has more shear than either August or September in the areas where these things usually form? The only memorable July storm I can think of that reached our area was Bertha in July 1996. It hit Wilmington, NC at nearly Cat 3 status (I think it was the earliest major hurricane at the time) and it rode up right along the coast and it was a 65 mph tropical storm when it hit land again near JFK. Close to hurricane force gusts near Babylon and up to 7" of rain in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexanderhall Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Wakefield, VA office just tagged a Special Marine Warning on the cell just north of the center of Fay for "Waterspouts and Gusts to nearly 50kts" Some occasional lightning in the eastern bands tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Earlier today, when the NHC was forecasting 3-5" for rain for most of the mid-Atlantic/NE (with up to 8" in spots), I was skeptical, since the 12Z models almost all showed 1-3" of rain, mostly, and the NWS offices (Philly and NYC) at 4 pm were calling for a general 1-3" of rain (with locally greater amounts) for the Philly-NJ-NYC-CT-LI region. However, if anyone has looked at the 0Z suite, every major global (Euro, UK, GFS, UK, and CMC), the NAM, the RGEM and even the HRRR are all showing at least 1-3" of rain" with the UK, Euro and CMC having significant swaths of 3-5" of rain for this area with some lollipops over 6" on a couple of models. That's flooding level rains in 18 hours. I'm not a rain fan, so I have no interest in seeing that much. Too sleepy to post all the maps, but it's a pretty accurate take, I think. Here's the latest from the NHC at 11 pm: Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Sustained ~33kt, G41 kt at a mesonet platform just e of DE... and on the coast of s NJ and DE coast as of about 725A, close to TS gusts of near 34 kt. Looking for max rainfall, just left of Fay track...(light n-ne flow) vs TS gusty e-se to sse flow e of track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 Do you want me to shift the posts to the tropical section? (all set on this...I now see how this works as a subform primary impact) Walt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, wdrag said: Sustained ~33kt, G41 kt at a mesonet platform just e of DE... and on the coast of s NJ and DE coast as of about 725A, close to TS gusts of near 34 kt. Looking for max rainfall, just left of Fay track...(light n-ne flow) vs TS gusty e-se to sse flow e of track. My brother is at Cape May. sent me a video earlier...storming well!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 For flash flooding: here's a nice look at 6 hour rainfall trigger thresholds (county wide) as hosted by BGM/RFC's. Since PWAT exceeds 2", pretty clear that urban runoff will produce short periods of street flooding-impacting travel between 2P-10P in NJ. Max gusts...follow HRRR and your other favorite models. Sort of looks to me like 3P-8P. 00z/10 SPC HREF has 1.5"+ rainfall w LI/NJ/se NYS. Think it's NJ and se NYS where to be more concerned, thinking back to rains of Monday and Wednesday. One other comment: NWS sees sub basin thresholds for triggering warnings, so this is just a broad scale idea. Let's see what happens. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 10, 2020 Author Share Posted July 10, 2020 fwiw... at about 1150z...no lightning. EC wraps enough instability to add lightning into the system late today-this eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, Animal said: My brother is at Cape May. sent me a video earlier...storming well!! 2.5 inches in the rain gauge too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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