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Hoosier

Cristobal Remnants June 9-10

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It looks like tomorrow could be one of the best severe weather setups the Metro Detroit area has seen in a long time. 

*Steep mid-level lapse rates

*Negative-tilt trough

*Strong tropical moisture advection (via. Cristobal remnants)

*Perfect timing (peak heating)

*Good chance of clear morning skies / no morning convection

The only thing that looks somewhat questionable is the shear (which looks to be undirectional).

 

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Trees down on my route. And not just small trees, soMe big ‘ems going down. Couple of streets closed because of them. This is kinda dangerous. :lol: :arrowhead:

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Pretty cool to see how a passing shower at ORD cooled temps down and resulted in much lighter winds after. The steepest low level lapse rates of the day were out ahead of this precip banding, then they weaken as a shower passes. Breaks in the clouds S of this band are helping the stronger wind field aloft mix down in central IL, despite the poor lapse rates. Wind speeds/gusts are higher than a lot of the SE saw yesterday.

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864331836_ScreenShot2020-06-09at2_48_16PM.thumb.png.6141dd15dea322519ad540e30dc654d5.png

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Band of rain coming through now with pretty decent gusts.  Legit looks like tropical storm conditions.

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Quote

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
301 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2020

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Cook County in northeastern Illinois...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 300 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Alsip, 
  moving north at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chicago, Cicero, Evanston, Skokie, Oak Lawn, Berwyn, Oak Park, Park
  Ridge, Maywood, Blue Island, Alsip, Brookfield, Franklin Park,
  Hinsdale, Westchester, La Grange, Forest Park, Justice, Chatham and
  River Forest.

Including the following interstates...
 I-55 between mile markers 277 and 294.
 I-57 between mile markers 354 and 358.
 I-90 between mile markers 78 and 103.
 I-94 between mile markers 40 and 67.
 I-290 between mile markers 16 and 29.
 I-294 between mile markers 40 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

 

 

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62MPH wind gust at MDW.

TDWR suggests 70-75MPH winds just west of MDW.

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8 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

93° air temp and 74° DP here.  It is definitely a hot and muggy day.

The transition from dry heat to wet heat was really sudden.  It was already pretty hot around noon, but the dewpoint wasn't even 60 yet.  Now it's pushing 70 and rising.

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Maybe Cristobal has a little more up his sleeve than I thought. Wind Advisory now hoisted for MKX's eastern counties (not including Dane, but does include Rock). 999.1 MB at KMSN as of 3 PM. Don't see a whole lot of sub-1000 readings.

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6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Maybe Cristobal has a little more up his sleeve than I thought. Wind Advisory now hoisted for MKX's eastern counties (not including Dane, but does include Rock). 999.1 MB at KMSN as of 3 PM. Don't see a whole lot of sub-1000 readings.

I think we need 990.2 to break the all time June record

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ILN sounds really concerned about tornado potential tomorrow even mentioning being alert for strong tornado.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main story Wednesday will be increasingly unstable airmass
meeting up with a negatively tilted shortwave heading up the
ridge axis currently in place over the East Coast. At the
surface, a cold front/dry line will slice through the forecast
area during the late afternoon hours. Timing of this line of
convergence is still a bit uncertain with the guidance. Have
bracketed the time of peak concern to be from 18Z through just
after 00Z, with a quick end to the precipitation behind the main
line along the front.

Based on several emerging mesoscale factors, including SBCAPE
values of 2000-3000 J/kg, 35-45kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and
20-30kts of 0-1km bulk shear, there is growing concern for
severe storms with damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes as
well. In fact, STP values exceeding 3 in west central through
central Ohio provide some alert for the potential for strong
tornadoes during the late afternoon through early evening hours.
Main question will be coverage for storms, as well as how long
the storms remain discrete along the front.

 

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58mph winds at Dayton airport.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
453 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     KDAY DAYTON COX APT     39.90N 84.22W
06/09/2020  M58 MPH          MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS


 

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0331 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROSEMONT                41.99N 87.87W  
06/09/2020  M74 MPH          COOK               IL   MESONET      

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wonder what kind of winds that the run of the mill showers upstream will produce.

It poured here for a few minutes but the wind didn't really pick up any more than it did before it started.

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The band that is expected to develop later doesn't look like it's going to be in a hurry to shift north.  Could semi-train.

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Sitting here listening to the police scanner. Hearing sporadic reports of trees down around St. Joseph County IN. Nothing widespread. Sounds like singular trees that came down. 

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Warmer air lurking downstate IL/MO, ready to advect in.  Will eventually be countered by loss of diurnal heating of course. 

il_sfc.gif.3a7eeb7d1c78a6154288baa9728cb2f0.gif

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Well so far it's been pretty benign here. We got to about 85 or so before the clouds started to move in, and now we are down to about 73. The wind picked up at 1 and we got to 20-30 mph before the rain moved in. Strangely enough the wind has actually died down during these rain showers, although the heavier stuff is getting closer so we will see how that turns out. My county is in the boring zone. Flash flood watches next county to my west and Wind advisories next county to my east. Kind of annoying ngl. 

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