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Hoosier

Cristobal Remnants June 9-10

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Why not

June tropical systems that are in the vicinity of where Cristobal is located pretty much always make landfall in Louisiana or Texas, so based on that and current model guidance, a landfall somewhere in Louisiana or possibly far eastern Texas looks very likely. 

Beyond that, the big question for us is how the remnants interact/phase with an incoming trough from the west.  There are a range of possibilities here from just getting some remnant moisture to a more pronounced interaction that results in an unseasonably deep surface low with a severe weather and strong wind threat.  We shall see. 

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Why not

June tropical systems that are in the vicinity of where Cristobal is located pretty much always make landfall in Louisiana or Texas, so based on that and current model guidance, a landfall somewhere in Louisiana or possibly far eastern Texas looks very likely. 

Beyond that, the big question for us is how the remnants interact/phase with an incoming trough from the west.  There are a range of possibilities here from just getting some remnant moisture to a more pronounced interaction that results in an unseasonably deep surface low with a severe weather and strong wind threat.  We shall see. 

I am hoping for no phase or even better storm dying down there. If the low does occur it would put us into a cold pattern for at least a week afterwards, some models even longer. Only a solution like the 12z run yesterday would be fine with me, for record purposes.

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This morning's models are tracking the low center farther southeast again, sorta acting as a tail for the cold front swinging through the region.  Still, models show good precip surging northward along the front.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I am hoping for no phase or even better storm dying down there. If the low does occur it would put us into a cold pattern for at least a week afterwards, some models even longer. Only a solution like the 12z run yesterday would be fine with me, for record purposes.

yeah 12z Euro has below zero 850 temps as far south as northern Illinois by next Friday morning.  woof

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Just now, madwx said:

yeah 12z Euro has below zero 850 temps as far south as northern Illinois by next Friday morning.  woof

Yeah that can f*** right off.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Thing has better wind fields aloft in the Lakes than when it makes landfall.  :P

floop-gfs-2020060418.850wh.conus.gif.c05b6c92e00d86e02d3a2023a7c9ad70.gif

 

Would much of that translate to the surface?

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11 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Would much of that translate to the surface?

Quick look shows iffy low level lapse rates after dark.  So mixing would probably be held in check a bit but would still be windy. 

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How hard is it to get a remnant Gulf system to track northwest of Illinois?  Pretty hard

 

ChicagoCWA_TropicalTracks1.png.baabab669290644884899d1776a1991c.png

 

It is not unusual for the heaviest rains to shift along/west of track as these things move farther inland, so some of these may have been able to produce rain into parts of IA/WI, especially eastern areas.

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Low deepens pretty quickly after 120h.  

That is about as far northwest as a tropical remnant gets.  I mean even Bo gets rain and 2"+ pwats. 

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Path of this thing for much of its time after landfall may take it over a zone that has been wetter than average.  Wonder if there may be somewhat of a brown ocean effect.  It's one of those things that is hard to measure.

30dPNormUS.thumb.png.d09210dbb4f3e73d9ad806c13f894b88.png

 

60dPNormUS.thumb.png.d56a306ce5f0c795eafc6dfb667a319d.png

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Path of this thing for much of its time after landfall may take it over a zone that has been wetter than average.  Wonder if there may be somewhat of a brown ocean effect.  It's one of those things that is hard to measure.

Could be some of that, but the pattern is so amped up - adding tropical heat into a favorable synoptic pattern could definitely lead to rapid deepening. The trough coming into the West has near record low 500 mb heights for June in the PacNW:

150658788_ScreenShot2020-06-05at12_21_31AM.thumb.png.ea72d60aa6bd656e6b5eafea78c0a551.png

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I don't like the idea of those PWATS combined with a very strong low and tropical remnants. That could be a potentially serious flood threat, especially if it goes over the very wet areas from the last couple of weeks. Combined with the potential wind and this could be quite interesting next Wednesday/Thursday.

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45 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

I don't like the idea of those PWATS combined with a very strong low and tropical remnants. That could be a potentially serious flood threat, especially if it goes over the very wet areas from the last couple of weeks. Combined with the potential wind and this could be quite interesting next Wednesday/Thursday.

Good news is that it's flying northwards by the time it gets here, but that wouldn't preclude some 5"+ amounts in a 6-12 hour period. I'm growing more concerned for lakeshore flooding, even surge/seiche, and the resulting erosion too. Most of the 00Z guidance is showing 50-60KT+ wind potential.

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00z Euro came in fairly impressive.

I think it's going to be at least a couple days until we get a better idea on the intricate details of the interaction with the incoming trough.  

Mentioned a few examples (in the other thread) of storms that were more memorable from a wind perspective.  They are outliers among tropical remnants in the region for a reason, but every so often you get your 1900, 1941, 2008 type storms that produce a swath of 60-80 mph winds as they move through.  If things come together right, then something like that scenario could be on the table, but we'll just have to wait and see.  

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z Euro came in fairly impressive.

I think it's going to be at least a couple days until we get a better idea on the intricate details of the interaction with the incoming trough.  

Mentioned a few examples (in the other thread) of storms that were more memorable from a wind perspective.  They are outliers among tropical remnants in the region for a reason, but every so often you get your 1900, 1941, 2008 type storms that produce a swath of 60-80 mph winds as they move through.  If things come together right, then something like that scenario could be on the table, but we'll just have to wait and see.  

70KT LLJ there over LM. Gets down to about 980 mb at the sfc.2109271127_ScreenShot2020-06-05at1_48_18AM.thumb.png.7d88d3607008702a0c4be119abfe81bf.png

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53 minutes ago, madwx said:

Have we ever had tropical remnants go sub 980 in the Lakes?

If we did, I think it'd be much more likely September onwards.

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just looking at the most recent trends, we may have a faster movement of this thing into the sub.

The ICON sped up this morning.  A faster motion should help get the system a bit farther nw before the front swings through.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

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10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The ICON sped up this morning.  A faster motion should help get the system a bit farther nw before the front swings through.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

Does the ICON have a CAPE map available?  It looks like this evolution may give a shot at some thunderstorms, not sure of the severity, but timing may be decent to let us destabilize.

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timing is gonna keep evolving, just like that track seems dead set on western lakes

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Wouldn't mind the faster timing.  Might as well maximize the wind potential around here with some diurnal assistance.

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Does the fact that Cristobal has been stuck over the Yucatan for several days and will likely have to rebuild its tropical convective core from near-scratch as it comes back across the GOM have any bearing on impacts for us vs. some of the runs which showed it getting back over water quicker and becoming a Cat 1--2 hurricane?

If some of these runs are to be believed it could become quite a bit deeper over the Midwest than it ever does as a tropical system.

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