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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020


Bostonseminole
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5 minutes ago, rimetree said:

If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook

It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer.

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Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs.

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1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

Looking at that bonkers ICON run and the EPS ensembles that really push for a NE hit, the massive blocking high pressure over NE actually generates a second area of weaker high pressure right over atlantic Canada, which causes the turn. Something to look out for in future model runs.

Well at least it’s interesting currently,  if nothing else?    All we can ask for at the moment.  

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29 minutes ago, rimetree said:

If I recall correctly, Euro had Sandy in a similar position before moving gradually down the coast to NJ left hook

 

21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It did, but this doesn't have a ridonculous block like Sandy did to assist with the hook. We're relying on the strength of the cutoff for the tug. I suppose the cutoff could keep digging southwest in future runs. That's sort of been a theme this summer. But then the Euro being wrong has also been a theme this summer.

We dont have the massive trough that  storm phased with. 

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0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro

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12 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

0z ICON captures it under the high and brings it west barely off the coast of Maine where it then slams into NS, 0z GFS continues to show a less dominant, more tilted high that lets Teddy escape to the east. Interestingly enough, both the ICON and GFS show at least some westward component as it moves North. Synoptically I'd say the GFS just caved a little to the Euro

Gfs is also holding back more energy like the euro.

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I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

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22 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

Cave on this footlong, :weenie:

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38 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I can't believe how fast everyone here is ready to move on from this. Just because we've been hurt so many times in the past by tropical whiffs doesn't mean that all of them will. Hell, the GFS 6z run just caved a little further with the west movement up North (though still a NS storm with an escape route). 6 days out, plenty can change

One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the NHC is very good at what they do and I trust that what they’re seeing in the guidance is accurate.

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