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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

 

 

It was a pretty hard hitter. Good thing the newly planted trees looked to have survived

how long did it last?  I read back and it sounds like the hail lasted for 10 min and the storm itself went on for about half an hour?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

First June since 2009 with no 90 degree days at JFK. The 89 today was the high for the month. Very few warm offshore flow days with the onshore flow dominating.

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 89 1
2019 91 0
2018 91 0
2017 94 0
2016 92 0
2015 90 0
2014 91 0
2013 91 0
2012 97 0
2011 93 0
2010 98 0
2009 83 0

think we hit 90 here on Friday or it waits until next week, Chris?

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how long did it last?  I read back and it sounds like the hail lasted for 10 min and the storm itself went on for about half an hour?

I didn't post the video. But By me it lasted a good 20 minutes. Wind swept rain. No hail. A lot of small and some large branches down 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how long did it last?  I read back and it sounds like the hail lasted for 10 min and the storm itself went on for about half an hour?

 in my area of manhattan it lasted that long and hail for 10 minutes..

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6/29

ACY: 92
EWR: 91
PHL: 90
TTN: 90
JFK: 89
New Brnswk: 89
TEB: 89
LGA: 89
BLM: 87
NYC: 87
ISP: 85

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Rainfall from the storm for official sites.

NYC: 0.58
LGA: 0.07
JFK: 0.02
 

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After 7/3 which may be the hottest day of the season so far, the period 7/6 - 7/11 looking more likely first widespread strong heat and heatwave potential.  ECM gets 850 tems >19C several times.   A bit out there nd need to watch if the seasonal trend is fleeting.

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I expect we will do better in the next two days

Totally agree and Wed could be more widespread.  Looking north at what ME, NH and VT had today is where the ULL will pivot south to over our area by Tue overnight into Wed.

 

usa_None_anim.gif

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9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

After 7/3 which may be the hottest day of the season so far, the period 7/6 - 7/11 looking more likely first widespread strong heat and heatwave potential.  ECM gets 850 tems >19C several times.   A bit out there nd need to watch if the seasonal trend is fleeting.

s0 7/3 should be low 90s for everyone?

I wonder if we will get the torch we did last July (it happened later in the month last year), we were tantalizingly close to 100 (99 twice!) with heat indices at record levels, near 120.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

s0 7/3 should be low 90s for everyone?

I wonder if we will get the torch we did last July (it happened later in the month last year), we were tantalizingly close to 100 (99 twice!) with heat indices at record levels, near 120.

 

Max temp at EWR/LGA is 93 and 90 NYC , 89 JFK so far, and Fri looks to match or exceed that as it looks now.

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A strong thunderstorm passed to the south and west of Larchmont bringing hail to parts of New York City while grazing Larchmont. In its wake, there was a double rainbow.

Larchmont06292020-1.jpg

Larchmont06292020-3.jpg

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Don that second pic is fantastic. Print it and frame it.

I got .03 and now it's beautiful. See what y'all can do about keeping the bulk of the wetness away from me for the next few days, send it all up to JC, he needs it.

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A severe thunderstorm with hail moved through parts of New York City early this evening. Parts of the region could again see some locally strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +4.43.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.607.

On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.305 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.464.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7°.

 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A strong thunderstorm passed to the south and west of Larchmont bringing hail to parts of New York City while grazing Larchmont. In its wake, there was a double rainbow.

Larchmont06292020-1.jpg

Larchmont06292020-3.jpg

The bottom image is postcard worthy (whoever is into those, haha). I mean that is a perfect shot! It would go on the front of a devotional book or something...awesome! (did you take this shot?)

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The bottom image is postcard worthy (whoever is into those, haha). I mean that is a perfect shot! It would go on the front of a devotional book or something...awesome! (did you take this shot?)

Thanks for the kind words. Yes. I took both photos.

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On 6/28/2020 at 1:37 PM, psv88 said:

Rain shot our dew up to 77. A steamy 81/77 now under blazing sun. After seeing how full everything was outside I estimate about an inch, consistent with radar

That's about an inch more than we got.  Same today.  Watched storms spiraling down from CT and hitting a wall over the sound.  Then when we decided it was safe to have dinner outside, it rained on us lightly (but enough to get us wet) for 10 minutes while we had blue sky overhead.

If I had a tenth of an inch of rain for everytime I heard thunder the past couple of weeks we'd have drowned, but instead we've a trace to show for it.  Sometimes you're a Louisville slugger, sometimes you're the ball.

 

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Nice rain bows posted yesterday. Looks like a busy 10 days ahead for potential stripes of drenching rain, some hail and a few severe storms. Plenty of modeled cape-ki ahead and while wind fields marginal, you noticed what happened late yesterday NYC area. I'm going for today, Wednesday, Friday, possibly next Monday, and then after that HI and PWAT seem to increase next week.  

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The last day of June is averaging 76degs. ,or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.7].         June should end at +2.3[73.7].

70* here at 6am., scattered cirrus.     74* by Noon, cloudy.          78* by 2pm, clouds, breaks           75*-78* by 5pm, plain lite shower.

The first 10 days of July are averaging 84, or +8.      13 90-Degree Days, including 3 100's incoming during the first half of July says the GFS!!!    Wack-A-Do

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First June that Newark averaged 74 degrees or warmer and didn’t have a monthly maximum temperature above 93 degrees. Newark is currently at the 10th warmest June on record. But the monthly maximum of 93 degrees is the coolest for all 74 degree or warmer years.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max Temperature
1 1994 77.8 102
2 2010 76.2 98
3 1993 75.8 102
4 1943 75.4 102
5 2008 75.3 99
6 1984 75.0 97
7 1971 74.8 94
8 2005 74.6 97
- 1981 74.6 98
- 1973 74.6 95
9 2011 74.5 102
10 2020 74.4 93
- 1987 74.4 96
11 1989 74.3 96
12 1999 74.2 99
13 1991 74.1 97

 

 

 

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Would think this evening and tomorrow will be the best chance of rain west of the city with the ULL moving closer towards us 

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56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Would think this evening and tomorrow will be the best chance of rain west of the city with the ULL moving closer towards us 

will probably be similar to yesterday-some areas get training storms and others miss.   A train of storms dropped about an inch of rain to my east yesterday while 10 miles west (here) had very little.

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I know that we're down on overall rainfall but this constant wetness is a disaster for my garden that was doing so well. I had to remove a half dozen plants this morning due to a cabbage worm infestation and the slugs are going to town on others but I think I got that under control. I'm also seeing a fair bit of rot happening and there was none at all last week. I can handle intermittent large amounts but not things being wet all the time. Sorry, back to your regular programming.

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76/62 here.  Next few days cut off over the northeast with lots of Northely flow and unsettled. Best possibility to pickup widespread rain in a while ahead of the hottest weather of the season.  Hope this satellite shot isnt cached but very interesting visible spin this morning.  clouds deck and showers to the NY border/Hudson valley.  Believe Wed is the wetter / mostly cloudy day but cant imagine Thu is mostly sunny as some forecasts show.  We'll see how much the park can add to overgrowth to limit maxes the next 4-7 days.

By Friday the flow is more N-NW and the warmer air will funnel down into the area with Friday being the hottest day of the season so far in many places with mid 90s possible.  4th July looks to start warm and cool later in the afternoon/ evening as wind go NE for a period, especially along the beaches.  Sunday looks like a Southern California type day ahead of the what should be the a period of heat and first widespread strong heat and sustained heat wave 7/6 - 7/11.  EWR/ LGA id go 4 -5 90+ and NYC 1 -3  in the period.  Maxes may see 95+ heat possible on more than one day.  Overall looking warm to hot.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

 

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We’ll need some help from convection later for several stations to avoid their driest June since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
2020 1.45 1
2019 6.00 0
2018 1.87 0
2017 5.29 0
2016 2.40 0
2015 5.90 0
2014 4.41 0
2013 8.74 0
2012 5.02 0
2011 2.74 0
2010 2.37 0
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
2020 1.76 1
2019 5.46 0
2018 3.11 0
2017 4.76 0
2016 2.60 0
2015 4.79 0
2014 4.26 0
2013 10.10 0
2012 2.97 0
2011 3.25 0
2010 2.20 0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
2020 1.10 1
2019 4.89 0
2018 3.60 0
2017 4.38 0
2016 2.24 0
2015 4.80 0
2014 3.69 0
2013 8.16 0
2012 4.19 0
2011 3.85 0
2010 1.67 0
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