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Roger Smith

Hot enough for you? -- the sequel (forecast contest)

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Prince Frederick laid down his crown and his ermine robes, and wandered off to who knows where, promising to return next winter. That could be 2038 the way things were going the past two so-called winters. 

Meanwhile he asked me to defend the realm (which I won't due to a nasty combination of inability and lack of funding) and to start a summer heat forecast contest, which I think is the only real reason for this post. 

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to predict the highest temperatures to be observed at each of (you guessed it) BWI, DCA, IAD and SLC just kidding RIC. You can add SLC if you want, choose any number between 99 and 101 and you'll be right. 

Wonderful scenery, non-challenging climate they have round Utah, I would go and tell you more but they won't let me in because of some cough going around. 

Anyway, here's my opening salvo in this contest, torn between the idea that the cold spell in May guarantees a scorcher, or just possibly is a sign of some long awaited return to the climate of the 1850s. Fat chance of that, so I will go with 

BWI _ 103

DCA _ 103

IAD _ 101

RIC _ 102

and make the bold prediction that I will not be dead last, or dead, or last, but ya never know. 

The real deadline is not T384 but whenever we have a nice turnout and I spot anything on the model runs that looks like potential action in this contest. Let's say it won't close before June 10th end of day, but could go a few days past that. 

And once again I for one (insert verb of choice) my Mid-Atl overlords from my distant outpost beyond the hills. Get a 10% discount by mentioning "lack of contrails" in your post. 

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BWI: 100F

DCA: 104F

IAD: 99F

RIC: 103F

 

I will also predict my yard won't see triple digits. Never does. The antithesis of urban sprawl.

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On 5/22/2020 at 7:09 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

BWI: 100F

DCA: 104F

IAD: 99F

RIC: 103F

 

I will also predict my yard won't see triple digits. Never does. The antithesis of urban sprawl.

Too humid in those fields!

BWI: 101

DCA: 99

IAD:  98

RIC: 100

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BWI, 102° (because of the controversy/climate change conspiracy theory)

DCA, 100°

IAD, 101°

RIC, 100° 

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BWI-102

DCA-105

IAD- 102

RIC-102

My TB is that I will see no rain all of Aug while it is 100 for 6 straight days.

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Thanks for entries so far, will leave this open for more entries until June 15th and you can edit any entries you've made without notice, I won't be recording any predictions until I declare the contest closed. Since 95% of years have a max after that date and often a month or two after it, I can't see that people will gain much advantage but we'll see. 

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Monday 15th is the last day for entries or for editing your existing entries. No need to notify on edits, I will construct a table of entries from what I see on Tuesday. You can enter up to the end of the day (06z Tuesday is the cutoff). I will post a closed for entries note and start on the table of entries at that time. Good luck !!

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Table of entries -- 2020 seasonal maxima in the Mid-Atlantic region

Forecasts appear by order of BWI predictions, then sorted by DCA, IAD and RIC where tied to that point.

Consensus is derived from medians although means would be similar. With 20 forecasts the median is the average of 10th and 11th ranked.

The actual maximum to date will move up through this table (we can presume) to its eventual resting place.

Later in the contest, a table of departures will be posted to show the evolving results of the contest. 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98

JakkelWx ______________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100

___ Actual to date ______ 96 __ 93 __ 95 __ 94

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch this be the summer everyone struggles to hit 95°.

Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC.

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10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC.

Which model is NBC Washington using? They have us roasting around 100 by the end of the 10-day.  They have been constantly predicting big heat waves in the longrange over the last three weeks. 

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10 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not seeing a significant signal on the means for a big SE ridge to develop and park. As long as the upper ridging generally stays to our west, we might be able to escape 100 degree heat. I am sure there will be a brief excursion or 2 regardless, at least for the UHI areas like DC.

models want to keep ridging to the middle of the country.  Flow is up north of us.  Gonna be dry with that.

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And we have our first action since the contest was closed for entries, DCA moves up to 97. BWI and RIC tied their previous highs of 96 and 94 (on Friday 3rd). IAD hit 94 but had 95 previously.

Table amended to show the new value for DCA, "Actual" remains below most forecasts or in a few cases tied with them, but DCA has now moved past one forecast. 

I have added total departures to the table. This table will be edited for a week or two if we keep moving up, so if there are later posts, scroll back to it.

Location forecasts that are passed by reality will change to italic type. 

 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 62

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 29

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 27

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 27

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 29

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 27

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 25

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 19

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 21

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 22

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 23

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 22

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 24

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 16

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 24

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ___ 12

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ___ 14

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 14

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader)

JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8

___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

 

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Looks good, summer can end now.

On 7/4/2020 at 12:55 AM, Roger Smith said:

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ___ 10

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 6 (current leader)

JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 8

___ Actual to date ______96 __ 97 __ 95 __ 94 

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

 

 

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Slight movement in the contest scoring after the past two days. 

Updated scoring to date ...

 

FORECASTER _________BWI _ DCA _ IAD _ RIC __ current total departure

George BM ___________110 _ 111 _ 111 _ 112 ___ 55

NorthArlington101 ____103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 104 ___ 22

Roger Smith __________103 _ 103 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 20

tplbge ________________103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 103 ___ 20

H2O __________________102 _ 105 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 22

yoda _________________ 102 _ 103 _ 100 _ 104 ___ 20

wxdude64 ____________102 _ 102 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 18

WxUSAF ______________102 _ 101 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 12

Eskimo Joe ___________102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ___ 14

WinstonSalemArlington  __102 _ 100 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 15

___ Consensus ________102 _ 101 _ 100 _ 102 ___ 16

WEATHER53 __________101 _ 101 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 15

Southmdwatcher _____ 101 __ 99 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 17

nw baltimore wx ______ 101 __ 99 __ 98 _ 100 ____ 9

C.A.P.E. _______________100 _ 104 __ 99 _ 103 ___ 17

MN Transplant _________99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99 ____  (current leaders)

Rhino16 _______________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101 ____ 9

Wx Watcher 007 _______ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _ 101 ____ 7

___ Actual to date ______98 __ 98 __ 97 __ 96 

Dan The Man __________ 98 __ 96 __ 97 __ 99 ____  (current leaders)

TSG ___________________ 97 __ 98 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 5 (current leaders)

JakkelWx ______________96 __ 97 __ 97 _ 100 ____ 7

note: values already passed by actuals appear in italics.

_______________________________________________________

The means of the 20 forecasts are

(contest means) _____ 101.1_ 100.9_ 99.9 _ 102.1

====================================================================

Changes will be made to this on Sunday 19th with DCA at 99 and RIC 100 (hourly obs) so far. 

Lots of time left for higher values to emerge, 65% of years have their annual max later than today's date (the median is July 24).

 

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