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COVID-19 Talk

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30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah lets relax on the political stuff...

So I woke up feeling a little rough this morning- headache, stomach was off, and ofc given the situation, the tendency is to think every symptom you get is the onset of the virus. I legit was getting stressed thinking about staying away from my parents, etc. I feel ok now, but I am going to carefully "monitor" myself today. I feel like a hypochondriac lol.

Sounds like you are having a hankering for some wings from the local buffet. :D

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24 minutes ago, mappy said:

okay all cleaned up. politics free as much as possible.

@showmethesnow if you wanna talk via PM later, feel free. otherwise the convo is over. 

stay well friends

I might PM you a little later. I did start looking into it until we got somewhat sidetracked with are civil's class. :lol: Then my boss told me to jump. So I jumped. My wife can be pretty assertive when she's in the mood. Just getting back to the computer right now and will probably have to step away again shortly as I will most likely be doing most of the day.

Really, I like to spend time looking over everything and thinking it through before I like to commit. But I promise, I will make every effort to look into it at some point today. 

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I might PM you a little later. I did start looking into it until we got somewhat sidetracked with are civil's class. :lol: Then my boss told me to jump. So I jumped. My wife can be pretty assertive when she's in the mood. Just getting back to the computer right now and will probably have to step away again shortly as I will most likely be doing most of the day.

Really, I like to spend time looking over everything and thinking it through before I like to commit. But I promise, I will make every effort to look into it at some point today. 

sure whatever

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37 minutes ago, mappy said:

okay all cleaned up. politics free as much as possible.

@showmethesnow if you wanna talk via PM later, feel free. otherwise the convo is over. 

stay well friends

Mappy, please tell me you didn't delete my comment on the WHO post I had. I spent quite a bit of time writing that up and I thought it brought up key information on why we didn't use this vaccine. And I am pretty sure it wasn't political or at the very most minimally political.

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Don't think it's possible to talk COVID without delving into politics.  As long as it doesn't get too personal we should let it go.

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Just now, Inverted_Trough said:

Don't think it's possible to talk COVID without delving into politics.  As long as it doesn't get too personal we should let it go.

It is definitely possible. The early discussion was about grocery store supplies etc. That type of discussion isn't political at all. Maybe it would be best if we kept the focus to the impacts on our local area and our membership specifically. I agree to an extent with you - but we can definitely have a discussion with our fellow forum members about the local impacts of COVID-19 without having it become a political slugfest in here. 

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We are getting great leadership from our two local governors and mayor in DC. 
 

That can’t be argued. I’m just glad they have done what they have to help ALL the citizens in each location

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Mappy, please tell me you didn't delete my comment on the WHO post I had. I spent quite a bit of time writing that up and I thought it brought up key information on why we didn't use this vaccine. And I am pretty sure it wasn't political or at the very most minimally political.

i did. sorry if it got caught up with the clean up. wasnt personal.

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Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

oh no, friend. i'm so sorry to hear. thinking of you and your family. :( 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So sorry to hear this. Hang in there! We are a pretty tight crew in here. 

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Sincere condolences to you and your family...  Regret this is likely going to touch us all in one way or another. 

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I'm so sorry to hear about that, WxWatcher007.  For what it's worth, I send my deep condolences.  Take care of yourself and those close to you!  And like you say, despite the occasional political argument in this thread, I'm grateful for this community and the people in it...nice to know that other than bonding over weather, we can also discuss this current situation rationally for the most part.  And it does help.

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Oh man..I'm so sorry man.   Be assured, I have no intention of deleting this thread or moving it.   I sincerely hope your other family recovers man.  Keep us updated and we'll keep you in our prayers.

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

OMG. I am so sorry this has taken someone you love. Terrible news and a life cut short because of this crisis. 
 

My deepest condolences to you and your family. If you need anything just PM or DM. 
 

 

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37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Never really know what to say when it comes to tragedy because no matter what I say it always feels like it is never enough. But my heart goes out for you and your family and I will keep your other two family members in my prayers. Something like this really drives home that what we discuss on these boards is not just an abstract subject but in fact a subject that will impact so many at a personal level. Again, love and prayers your way.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

I am so sorry to hear about your loss. I dont know you personally but I send prayers and condolences to you and your family at this time.

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Actually, this is kind of what really worries me beyond this initial wave.  I've heard indications that this virus could well be a "seasonal" occurrence.  And keep in mind, this really showed up here more near the end of the regular flu season.  Come next fall, we'll be dealing with this for the full complement of that season.

As supernovasky brought up. We will be better prepared at that point. But another factor that may play an even bigger part is that we will see nowhere near the infection rate we are currently seeing. This first round will be the biggie by far as I expect we at the very least see an infection rate of 15-20% throughout the States (think herd immunity starting to kick in somewhat as potential hosts have been taken out of the equation). I just don't think we are going to be able to escape this. That alone will dampen a decent amount the infection rate on any secondary go round. But that isn't the biggest thing to consider. If you note where the major hot spots are generally located they are for the most part centered on major metropolitan areas and they have been spreading outwards into the suburbs. These high density population centers are fertile breeding grounds for spreading this disease. We will see by far the highest infection rates within these cities. As they spread out the infection rates will continue to lower as the population density decreases until you get out into the rural areas where the infection rates will be very low. As far as the cities I really cringe when I consider some of the infection rates we may actually see especially with what we are seeing within NY. If I hear some reports approaching 35-40+  I don't think I would be that surprised. So what does that mean as for a possible followup? It means that there is a good chance that many of the major cities will approach if not achieve achieve herd immunity where the worst we see is sporadic cases here and there. This pretty much would take out these fertile breeding grounds that were pretty much the catalyst for spread. That leaves the areas outside of the cities to consider. They will have seen smaller infection rates but they also have lower population density. So the herd immunity factor is lower then the cities. So they may not achieve true herd immunity but they are probably getting close as to where it will have a fairly significant impact on infection rates. Then you get out into the rural regions. The rural regions will have the lowest infection rate probably by far of all as the population density just does not support a major flareup.

So all that said. If we do see a secondary peak come next year what would it look like? Well I wouldn't rule out some cities flaring up that are mostly spared this go round. But I think the focus will be more so centered on the suburbs which will probably mostly be composed of much smaller flareups that can be contained. Then in the rural areas we probably see sporadic cases or even possibly very minor flareups here and there. I doubt very much that we would need to see a major shutdown of the whole US again. It will be more in the way of shutting down smaller regions around these much smaller flareups. So really, I don't think any secondary surge with this virus will even sniff what we are currently in the middle of. It would probably be magnitudes lower in impacts.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So terribly sorry to hear that.  Prayers for comfort for you and your family.

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As supernovasky brought up. We will be better prepared at that point. But another factor that may play an even bigger part is that we will see nowhere near the infection rate we are currently seeing. This first round will be the biggie by far as I expect we at the very least see an infection rate of 15-20% throughout the States (think herd immunity starting to kick in somewhat as potential hosts have been taken out of the equation). I just don't think we are going to be able to escape this. That alone will dampen a decent amount the infection rate on any secondary go round. But that isn't the biggest thing to consider. If you note where the major hot spots are generally located they are for the most part centered on major metropolitan areas and they have been spreading outwards into the suburbs. These high density population centers are fertile breeding grounds for spreading this disease. We will see by far the highest infection rates within these cities. As they spread out the infection rates will continue to lower as the population density decreases until you get out into the rural areas where the infection rates will be very low. As far as the cities I really cringe when I consider some of the infection rates we may actually see especially with what we are seeing within NY. If I hear some reports approaching 35-40+  I don't think I would be that surprised. So what does that mean as for a possible followup? It means that there is a good chance that many of the major cities will approach if not achieve achieve herd immunity where the worst we see is sporadic cases here and there. This pretty much would take out these fertile breeding grounds that were pretty much the catalyst for spread. That leaves the areas outside of the cities to consider. They will have seen smaller infection rates but they also have lower population density. So the herd immunity factor is lower then the cities. So they may not achieve true herd immunity but they are probably getting close as to where it will have a fairly significant impact on infection rates. Then you get out into the rural regions. The rural regions will have the lowest infection rate probably by far of all as the population density just does not support a major flareup.

So all that said. If we do see a secondary peak come next year what would it look like? Well I wouldn't rule out some cities flaring up that are mostly spared this go round. But I think the focus will be more so centered on the suburbs which will probably mostly be composed of much smaller flareups that can be contained. Then in the rural areas we probably see sporadic cases or even possibly very minor flareups here and there. I doubt very much that we would need to see a major shutdown of the whole US again. It will be more in the way of shutting down smaller regions around these much smaller flareups. So really, I don't think any secondary surge with this virus will even sniff what we are currently in the middle of. It would probably be magnitudes lower in impacts.

Really was conflicted on whether I wanted to add this or not to the above post. People are scared enough as it is and this is just another worry to pile on the crap heap. But after reflecting on it for a few minutes I thought it was better to be educated to the possibilities as opposed to being caught totally flat footed. One thing we have to consider is the possibility of a mutation. We see that and all bets are off. Don't know enough to know if this would put us back to square one with dealing with this virus but it sure would be a hell of a setback. That said, and I am going by what I have read from the professionals who make a living off these studies, this is an extremely stable virus with a very low mutation rate. Odds are strongly against this scenario even playing out.

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Really was conflicted on whether I wanted to add this or not to the above post. People are scared enough as it is and this is just another worry to pile on the crap heap. But after reflecting on it for a few minutes I thought it was better to be educated to the possibilities as opposed to being caught totally flat footed. One thing we have to consider is the possibility of a mutation. We see that and all bets are off. Don't know enough to know if this would put us back to square one with dealing with this virus but it sure would be a hell of a setback. That said, and I am going by what I have read from the professionals who make a living off these studies, this is an extremely stable virus with a very low mutation rate. Odds are strongly against this scenario even playing out.

Yes, I think most of the mutations seen thus far have been trivial and not really affecting the severity of the virus or major characteristics. Just enough gene changes to be able to track infection zones. I know for example they tracked one of the strains on a cruise ship to the same genetic makeup from Washington state. So hopefully it remains 'stable' with only about 2 mutations per month. I think I read typical influenza undergoes about 8-10 mutations per month thus why there are different vaccines all the time. Hopefully one and done with covid19 irt vaccination.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

So sorry to read this and I can only imagine how difficult it is for you.  I will keep you in my prayers.  

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Man, so sorry to hear this.  Your family is in my thoughts.  Stay strong, friend.

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Thanks, everyone. I appreciate it. 

There aren’t a lot of capacity issues from what I see here in CT, but the images coming from NYC and Michigan are really bad. It’s going to be a rough 8 weeks.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Incredibly sorry to hear this, sending my thoughts to your family and extended family, and hopefully the other two members of that family will turn for the best

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35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hi everyone,

This morning the first member of my extended family passed away due to COVID-19. We were pretty close. The grief is hard but I’m being strong for the rest of my family. Unfortunately, this may not be our only loss as two other members of the family are in the hospital and not doing well. 

Please keep us in your prayers, and I just have to say that while I know some are uncomfortable with a thread like this because of the politics and somber topic of discussion, it has personally helped me immensely because I’m able to talk and connect on this in a way I just can’t with family that struggle to talk about mortality and data/policy. A lot of us will know pain during this time. This helps ease my burden. 

Thank you.

Oh my goodness, man...I am so sorry to hear this. My folks and I will lift you and your family up in prayer--God bless. (What's your family name? Just so we can say more than "The WxWatcher007 family", haha)

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8 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

35 - 40% of the tests are coming back positive from NY/NJ.  That doesn't mean 35% of the population has the virus.  For the most part, only symptomatic people are getting tested.  Unless we randomly test people throughout NY/NJ, we have no idea what the true infection percentage in the population is.

Generally, the rule of thumb is that there are about 5 to 10 times as many actual COVID carriers than what is confirmed by testing.  So if we're looking at NYC, there are 57000+ confirmed positives.  If we assume that means there are between 250k - 500k carriers in NYC, that still is only between 3% and 6% immunity.  Obviously that will go higher as time progresses but hopefully social distancing will limit that to, say, 10% at most.  10% won't be enough to dampen a second wave.  However I do think we will be much more prepared in terms of testing and procedures and the ventilator repository, so the impacts will be a bit less....hopefully.

Unfortunately until there is a vaccine, the economy in the crapper.  The economy can't grow when there's a virus in the midst.  

Stay away from NYC/NJ unless you've already had the virus.

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