Fear and loathing April, 2020 discussion, obs, and the occasional derailment

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was all this talk of cold month , multiple snows etc a few weeks ago and swirling wheels of rrhea. A few of us said it looks like cool mornings and nice sunny afternoons which is mainly how it’s been . It’s mid month with no snow in SNE and AN. The last 7-10 days look mild to warm. 

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was all this talk of cold month , multiple snows etc a few weeks ago and swirling wheels of rrhea. A few of us said it looks like cool mornings and nice sunny afternoons which is mainly how it’s been . It’s mid month with no snow in SNE and AN. The last 7-10 days look mild to warm. 

Bring the downriggers up a few feet and throw some Chum. Not a lot biting this morning.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

Bring the downriggers up a few feet and throw some Chum. Not a lot biting this morning.

You are going to honestly say this month so far has been nasty and cold? How many decent/ nice days have we had? How many days of raw Backdoor wx have you had ?

[moneypitmike]

Apologies if this was already posted.....just saw this near-miss caught by a cruiser in Oxford (MA).

 

 

 

[PowderBeard]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Bring the downriggers up a few feet and throw some Chum. Not a lot biting this morning.

Time to throw a buzzbait or Whopper Plopper and piss them off into biting.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You are going to honestly say this month so far has been nasty and cold? How many decent/ nice days have we had? How many days of raw Backdoor wx have you had ?

As far as Aprils go, this one has been pretty nice down here. No mud, everything greening up. Flowers, mowers, just waiting on the sun dresses at this point.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

As far as Aprils go, this one has been pretty nice down here. No mud, everything greening up. Flowers, mowers, just waiting on the sun dresses at this point.

Winters without snow tend to lead to springs without mud. 

[Hoth]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Great diurnal timing.  

If I get my biggest event of the season in mid April I'm gonna freak.

[Hoth]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Winters without snow tend to lead to springs without mud. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

As far as Aprils go, this one has been pretty nice down here. No mud, everything greening up. Flowers, mowers, just waiting on the sun dresses at this point.

Yup. It’s been (thus far) one of the nicest in many years . Quick rain events and no onshore flow which is exactly what we discussed end of Morch when they were calling for cold gloom and doom. Has it been perfect ? No. But it’s been 7 on scale of 10 and for the worst moth of the year wxwise in SNE, who can spin that into a cold wheel of rrhea?

[HoarfrostHubb]

For ORH (only goes through the 13th mind you)

Of the 13 days, 7 have had measurable precip

4 clear days

9 cloudy or partly cloudy days.

1.67” above normal precipitation 

+1.6F    Warm and wet

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was all this talk of cold month , multiple snows etc a few weeks ago and swirling wheels of rrhea. A few of us said it looks like cool mornings and nice sunny afternoons which is mainly how it’s been . It’s mid month with no snow in SNE and AN. The last 7-10 days look mild to warm. 

We’ve got a cool stretch coming up. Enjoy. 

[ORH_wxman]

That’s some nice fronto on the euro. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve got a cool stretch coming up. Enjoy. 

Never address the facts 

[Weather_or_Not]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For ORH (only goes through the 13th mind you)

Of the 13 days, 7 have had measurable precip

4 clear days

9 cloudy or partly cloudy days.

1.67” above normal precipitation 

+1.6F    Warm and wet

Yeah, it's been a mediocre April at best. I hate "wasting" a +9 departure on a washout. Most of the departure coming from the lows. 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Never address the facts 

Like your president.

[NorEastermass128]

Dang. Still rain here on the EURO. 

[mahk_webstah]

no sign from NWS or WPC of snow up here in the next week, beyond small chance snow showers.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like your president.

He’s yours too 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Snow on the ground here this morning.  Maybe a tenth of an inch?  The ground is white with clumps of large flakes.  

Ha, I almost missed it.  Didn’t even bother to look outside, the sun’s burning it off fast already.  

 

MVL was under 1 mile visibility, so had to be a nice burst.  

METAR KMVL 150920Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN

[ORH_wxman]

06z Euro has a pretty nice look as well...that's a little critter at H5. Could be a nice stripe of moderate to heavy snow to the north of that vort.

 

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. It’s been (thus far) one of the nicest in many years . Quick rain events and no onshore flow which is exactly what we discussed end of Morch when they were calling for cold gloom and doom. Has it been perfect ? No. But it’s been 7 on scale of 10 and for the worst moth of the year wxwise in SNE, who can spin that into a cold wheel of rrhea?

Here it's been mild mornings and mild cloudy or partly cloudy afternoons.  Temp is running +1.1 thru yesterday, but -1 for maxima (and +3 for minima.)  Mildest has been 54, same as last month's highest and 60s seem out of the question for the next 10 days at least.  At least the precipitation has come in discrete events rather than days and days of mank and muck - 3 storms for 4.66", over 250% of average MTD. 

[CoastalWx]

Almost tries to curl up a little CCB at the end there. Nice looking system for this time of year.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Almost tries to curl up a little CCB at the end there. Nice looking system for this time of year.

Yeah it’s the classic “precip hanging back longer than models show” type look. It’s trying to focus the heaviest stuff on the WAA fronto, but there’s pretty solid dynamic support behind that with the vigorous vortmax. It has the look of some narrow stripe getting hit pretty good that gets both the WAA fronto and then the attempted CCB hanging back....time of the year will be a limiting factor of course. But a warning stripe wouldn’t surprise me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

My usual question.. would this be paster or 28 degree powder snow? 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My usual question.. would this be paster or 28 degree powder snow? 

Starting to come around to the idea?  

6z EURO was another 6-spot for you.

Looks pasty.  -1C at 925mb and 32-34F surface.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Starting to come around to the idea?  

6z EURO was another 6-spot for you.

Looks pasty.  -1C at 925mb and 32-34F surface.

Maybe. But these deals seem to always cool to upper 20’s. Even the Napril ones 

[ORH_wxman]

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens.

It could still crap out on us.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see 28F unless it cools more. You typically want at least like -3C or -4C or so at 925mb this time of the year. If it wrapped up into a more of a CCB, then it's possible it could transition to that in the 2nd half of the event, but I'm doubtful. I'd expect paste....assuming this happens.

It could still crap out on us.

Any shot at snow here? Euro says yes... but everything else is meh 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe. But these deals seem to always cool to upper 20’s. Even the Napril ones 

It actually verbatim looks pretty elevation dependent.  Like 32-33F for you and 35F for BDL/IJD.  

Assuming it happens as the Euro is peddling.