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George BM

March Banter 2020

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6 hours ago, RDM said:

Agree with some of the reference to warmer areas, but there's exceptions to this too.  The majority of the warmer climates in the world are also among the poorest where access to reliable testing is going to be marginal at best for a long time.  And the stats on the Johns Hopkins Heat Map are based solely on verified test results, which are significantly less than the number of actual cases.  

The stats for India and Africa are the prime examples of what is most likely under reporting.  Stats in African and the Indian sub-continent are currently well behind much of the rest of the world.  That said, the stats starting to ramp up 2 days ago.  From a temperature perspective, the northern tier of the subcontinent is still in transition from cool winter/spring temps (it does get below freezing in the winter in Delhi - DJF) to what we would call summer-like temps in the south.  

If we look at South America and Australia also, their stats have grown significantly over the last couple of days and Australia is just entering Fall along the southern coast.

As for China, their data integrity must be objectively questioned and significantly so.  Just as they deployed the largest quarantine in history, they also have the ability to control the data/stats.  They actively control all nodes of Internet traffic in and out of China with an acute level of precision most can't contemplate.  

Experienced a similar level of domain control albeit with the "free" press in India when I lived there in the 90's.  We had an outbreak of pneumonic plague in 94.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_plague_in_India  They voluntarily evacuated the US Embassy as the news consumed all forms of information services at the time (largely pre-Internet except for a few).  The story went from consuming entire sections of the Delhi Times on a Friday to nothing two days later.  Not a whimper.  In reality, the Indian political machine clamped down on the press and it just went away - like that.  Was a pretty amazing thing to live through at the time.  Actual deaths were wayyy higher than those acknowledged in the official reporting.  

Nothing above is intended to demean or question what we're facing with this pandemic.  Hopefully, the US will rise to the occasion and group together to bring to bear the best of what we can muster.  My fear is the current political climate will continue to undermine attempts to do so.  

Less developed countries are not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus.  So while there is likely more cases than reported they are likely milder than seen in cold and flu prone areas. This by no means meant to say it’s right. I’m just making a prediction based on how i understand this stuff.  Which is about as good as i can predict the weather lol

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51 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Less developed countries are not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus.  So while there is likely more cases than reported they are likely milder than seen in cold and flu prone areas. This by no means meant to say it’s right. I’m just making a prediction based on how i understand this stuff.  Which is about as good as i can predict the weather lol

Not sure I follow the syntax of the part in bold about "not going to be able to under report deaths from the virus".  If they are not going to be able to under report, does that default to they will be over reporting deaths?  Not trying to be sarcastic, just trying to understand the point you're making.  

It's was interesting to watch the growth of new cases in the equatorial strip of Africa and the Indian subcontinent over the last 24 hours.  Same for Central and South American and the Caribbean - all have experienced significant growth in the number of cases.  Wonder if the growth in these warmer and even tropical climates is catching the eye of CDC etc.  

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Let’s try to keep the conversation apolitical please. Staff has been letting things go because this is obviously something everyone wants to talk about. But let’s keep the discussion without politics as much as possible.

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NFL Draft has been postponed and will not be held in Las Vegas as planned.

My guess is it will go on behind the scenes, via conference calls etc. with no fanfare.

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So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  :facepalm:

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4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  :facepalm:

And this is why the beer reserve exists. These are the times that try men’s souls. 

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54 minutes ago, Scraff said:

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  :facepalm:

Jeez, @Scraff, just let it go.  

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My family and five other neighborhood families have agreed that we will allow our kids to play together outside and that we will “socially distance” ourselves from one another until and if one of us gets sick. This is because we can’t honestly allow ourselves to think that our kids will be able to handle being cooped up inside and not being able to play together. We have all agreed that we will limit ourselves to this and not socially interact with other families until we’re at the end of this situation.

Two of the parents need to go into the office - the rest can be at home.

One family just told us that two of their boys had low-grade fevers yesterday, so they’re staying put now.

What a tough situation to be in. We realize that our approach isn’t ideal, but I do think we’re being responsible and realistic while allowing our kids to have some sort of normalcy in their daily lives.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

NFL Draft has been postponed and will not be held in Las Vegas as planned.

My guess is it will go on behind the scenes, via conference calls etc. with no fanfare.

Canceling the NCAA Tournament was the gut punch.  It was like.. "your not gonna take this seriously... then how about we cancel your little tournament.. "

I can deal with the kids being home.. I can deal with the empty toilet paper aisles.. shoot I can even deal with them canceling the St Patrick's day events... but canceling the NCAA tournament is talking it a little too far.  Someone should have stepped in and did something about that.    

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From a sports perspective and in my own view, the postponement of the Masters was the biggest call so far. If theres any place that can provide isolation for its players, its Augusta National. If they're taking this seriously, you take notice.

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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

My family and five other neighbor go is families have agreed that we will allow our kids to play together outside and that we will “socially distance” ourselves from one another until and if one of us gets sick. This is because we can’t honestly allow ourselves to think that our kids will be able to handle being cooped up inside and not being able to play together. We have all agreed that we will limit ourselves to this and not socially interact with other families until we’re at the end of this situation.

Two of the parents need to go into the office - the rest can be at home.

One family just told us that two of their boys had low-grade fevers yesterday, so they’re staying put now.

What a tough situation to be in. We realize that our approach isn’t ideal, but I do think we’re being responsible and realistic while allowing our kids to have some sort of normalcy in their daily lives.

Thats kinda of the same approach Walmart took.. in deciding whether or not they should protect their employees.. they sent everyone home from the Ivory Tower.. allowing all corporate employees to WFH.  But when the rubber hit the road and they had to decide whether or not they were going to shut down stores.. it was as if someone said.. "Close down the stores? That would be like this is real"

So when you pressed with the prospect of actually having to entertain your kids for 24 hours a day with no end in sight.. under the same roof.. common sense starts to take over.  

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Sorta feels like we're all waiting for that Italy or spain esque hot spot to appear in the US. And, not a matter of if, but when.

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2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Wait, so you're saying that the tournament shouldve been held someway, somehow?

Of course they should have.  Tournament or no tournament  you are not going to stop the spread of a virus. 

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@mattie g we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

@mattie g we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

Glad to hear others are taking the same approach.

My parents and my wife’s parents aren’t local, so we don’t have that concern from a personal interaction perspective, though my wife just told her mom that she’s cancelling their flight to HHI in early April as a precaution.

Next-door neighbors’ parents live a few miles away and are really involved in their lives. That’s awesome, though the grandmother is...ummm...over-involved. They got invited to their house for dinner tonight, and from what they told us yesterday, declining the invitation won’t go over well!

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16 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Of course they should have.  Tournament or no tournament  you are not going to stop the spread of a virus. 

We’re not talking about stopping it.  We’re trying to slow it down.  

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[mention=1705]mattie g[/mention] we’re letting our kids play with neighborhood friends as long as everyone is symptom free. That seems fine per the medical experts I’ve seen. We’re going to limit contact with their grandparents for awhile (although we haven’t explicitly told them that yet). 

Asymptomatic transmission seems possible, FWIW. But “social distancing” with a larger group is possible, as long as everyone holds up their end of the bargain and actually only hangs out with people in that group. It takes one person to screw it up.

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We’re not talking about stopping it.  We’re trying to slow it down.  

The best thing to do to lessen that impact would be to tell people not to show up at the emergency room if they get a cold.  Realistically the worst thing that can happen is that too many people show up to the hospital asking for a test that doesnt exist.  And even you do test positive, it is not gonna change the prognosis or the treatment.. Go home, get some rest, maybe take some antibiotics so it doesnt evolve in to a bacterial infection that could actually kill you.. 

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Asymptomatic transmission seems possible, FWIW. But “social distancing” with a larger group is possible, as long as everyone holds up their end of the bargain and actually only hangs out with people in that group. It takes one person to screw it up.

Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!

 

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Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!
 

Listen, people can live their lives however they want. All that you have to know is by not changing your habits, you making it possible for the disease to better spread through your community. Go through the Washington Post simulation I posted earlier for a visual demonstration.

Will you die by going out to Starbucks? You almost surely won’t. However, it remains unnecessary — get a freaking Keurig.
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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


Listen, people can live their lives however they want. All that you have to know is by not changing your habits, you making it possible for the disease to better spread through your community. Go through the Washington Post simulation I posted earlier for a visual demonstration.

Will you die by going out to Starbucks? You almost surely won’t. However, it remains unnecessary — get a freaking Keurig.

People aren't going to take this seriously until people they know start dying. Unfortunately by that time, you're 3 weeks behind because it takes 3 weeks from infection to death.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." - Dr. Albert Bartlet

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7 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Well I went to starbucks this morning.. so I guess we are doomed!

 

Enjoy it because my bet is it won’t be open anymore in a week or so.  

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Enjoy it because my bet is it won’t be open anymore in a week or so.  

if people haven’t registered that we are going into an Italy/Spain/China style lockdown within the next 1-2 weeks... they are gonna be in for a shock.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:


if people haven’t registered that we are going into an Italy/Spain/China style lockdown within the next 1-2 weeks... they are gonna be in for a shock.

My bar is 7-11.  If they close 7-11 then this is real.  

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In other (semi-non related) news, Marshall Yanda retired this week, leaving a major hole on the OL for the Ravens to fill.  Might have to address that need through the draft, whenever that happens.

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2 hours ago, Scraff said:

So I’ll definitely see some snow today! Apparently the family and I have a double feature planned. Frozen and Frozen II.  :facepalm:

(I like both movies)

Watched Frozen 2 with the family last night.  Must have hit it within an hour of it appearing on Disney+.

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