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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

April fools snowstorm on gfs 

Would be the ultimate April fools joke if the GFS 384 actually verified.

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The models have been changing shortwave configurations quite a bit from run to run.  Don't think anythings settled yet.

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:

Who cares about snow

The CMC 

7u2wbkP.png

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6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed.  Hug the WB 0Z Canadian!!!

59518799-1722-4E98-8C02-87CD82BB125E.png

87E11FF8-F714-403A-8906-8E4878040360.png

This would be a hell of way to celebrate my bday. I’m sure it won’t happen, but fun to dream. 

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               While it's an obvious long shot, and I won't try to pretend otherwise, this is a chilly and very dry air mass that will settling in over us on Sunday.   (The GFS shows dew points dropping perhaps into the single digits early Sunday).      So IF the low can track south of us and we can get precip in here overnight Sunday,  that could work for some of us.

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Changing the tune a bit, don't be surprised if we get our first 80s of the season across the region Friday. The warm front bringing severe weather to the Midwest and southern Plains will bring us strong southwesterly flow and if the initial wave of precipitation can clear in the AM, we'll roast. Additionally, we have a low CAPE, high shear setup that could bring a round of storms as the cold front moves in Friday evening. 

march 18 gfs.png

nam sounding march 18.png

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NWS 4am discussion. The high to our north will migrate eastward over the Northeast Sunday night as zonal flow aloft deteriorates and a shortwave trough digs into the Ohio Valley. Come Monday morning, surface low pressure will develop near the North Carolina coast, tracking north northeast throughout the day. The resultant weather locally will be precipitation breaking out overnight Sunday and lingering through much of the day on Monday. With the high to our northeast helping to supply chilly conditions, wintry precip concerns emerge for our Blue Ridge westward zones late Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the potential for accumulating snowfall across portions of northern and western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and western Virginia. Will iron out the finer details in the coming days, but model consistency does bring confidence in at least a slight winter storm threat for accumulating snowfall in the areas noted above.

 

 

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