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C.A.P.E.

March Medium/Long Range Disco

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GFS continuing its step back. Hardly any precipitation now. Not that this was much to track to begin with but it’s all over now 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a trend weaker and north with the NS also.  It was a bunch of small almost imperceptible adjustments but they all were the wrong way which isn’t going to work when it was barely a marginal setup to begin with. Frankly the rule with these NS SS capture/phase setups is they almost always end up slower and too far northeast for us. This reminds me of the early March 2018 storm that teased us the day before. I knew that rule but having EVERY guidance 12 hours out showing snow here got me to abandon my pessimism with such setups.  I remember trying to convince myself with “ the euro is showing 8” just 18 hours out. It can’t be that wrong”. Then the hrrr started shifting east every hour. Then the run that night just hours before it should have started shifted everything 100 miles east.   Never again. I will never ever ever fee at all confident or even hopeful in these late NS phase scenarios until the fatties are falling. Yea once in a blue moon they work but 99% they tease us and end up northeast of us. 

ETA:  if the SS trends more amped that could change the equation here. A west dig in the NS too but that’s trending the wrong way and usually the adjustment there is northeast not southwest.  

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift  east or northeast, smh) 

And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

Yes. Not all Nina’s are the same.  Some can be reasonably cold and active but even in those we still tend to end up about median or slightly below mean snowfall. The reason is the lack of SS and fast NS. There is also usually a lack of NAO blocking in a Nina that’s because the central pac pattern is often similar to this year and that pattern is destructive to high latitude blocking.   We have all of that now.  The only factor we have is chaos from March.  

The storm I’m referencing was in March 2018 around March 8 or so.  It was a similar late phase between a NS and weak SS wave.   Teased my area and especially NE MD then pulled the rug out just a few hours before it would have started.

This was the NAM and euro from just 18 hours before the storm.  

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D6F4443F-D97A-498A-89D2-D273891269A2.png.687baeff49bb9fdb44fc19b3f32012df.png

But this was the actual results  

E1C9F3ED-8551-4BD6-AC93-922C8A5C73B5.thumb.jpeg.4535b69ba879d196626f0b36099bdb59.jpeg

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48 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

NAM follows suit and completely misses the phase...pretty much no precip in the area from either the coastal or ULL

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

i forgot but when did the boxing day storm make its comeback? Wasnt it dead for a while but then in the last 72 hours..it made a huge move back?

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I defended you post last night but now it’s kind of pouring on. We’ve established this is likely dead now. Last nights 18z/0z/6z trends pretty much killed it. The status quo is now “it’s not happening” so pointing out every run that will show “it’s not happening” from here on out is just piling on. At this point we should probably only bring it up if something unexpected comes up and things trend back towards a possible event. As of now it’s dead. 

Darn, I was about to post about the GFS....but fair enough.  It was still model discussion though

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

i forgot but when did the boxing day storm make its comeback? Wasnt it dead for a while but then in the last 72 hours..it made a huge move back?

Yes and so did the March 18 storm I Referenced. So did Dec 2000. The MO for “these” is often to look good long range, trend bad, then tease us at some point in the final 48 hours only to fall apart right at nowcast time. I wouldn’t be shocked if this makes one more tease just to inflict more pain. 

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14 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Darn, I was about to post about the GFS....but fair enough.  It was still model discussion though

Yea Im personally not bothered and don’t mean to be antagonistic, but at this point I think it’s clearly established that this is probably not happening so more posts saying “bad run” is just redundant. If something unexpected happens then it’s worth bringing up. But that’s just my opinion. 

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The inverted trough feature is worth keeping an eye on. Even that is likely a fail but there is a chance it could impact the northeast parts of this forum. 

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I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

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1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Strong blocking setting up for April?  U just can’t make this stuff up 

I feel like Ive read somone say the CFS has been awful. So perhaps its wrong. One can hope

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37 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I feel like Ive read somone say the CFS has been awful. So perhaps its wrong. One can hope

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely. 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

I suppose ~March 12 is still worth watching...verbatim GFS tracks the low right over us but any adjustment in heights/better blocking and maybe we get thrown a bone

It’s bleeding the wrong way on guidance but it’s still barely within the scope of possible so I guess it’s worth a peek each run. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely. 

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

Unless it is going to snow- there is nothing positive about it being cold this time of year.  Bring on spring

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

A -NAO in April would likely result in 60s most of the time. Without it we would probably be pushing 90 by the end of the month in this regime.

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I hear ya but I want a steady supply of 60s..and I feel like if there was good blocking, we'd have a fair share of foggy/dreary/misty days and we've had enough of those!

Even our coldest Aprils featured plenty of 60+ days... we just might not get a lot of 75+ days in April which can happen without blocking.  It would mean we actually get a spring and don't just jump right into Summer weather like @C.A.P.E. said.  "Cold April" fears are almost always overblown imo unless a couple chilly days in the 40's is really going to ruin the entire month for you.  

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5 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Unless it is going to snow- there is nothing positive about it being cold this time of year.  Bring on spring

What we "want" won't make any difference.   Not saying you are saying this...but every year we start to get some posts about now with people who want it to be warm and sunny annoyed at people still rooting for late snow...or people tracking snow annoyed with people who are done and want warmth.  Who cares....they can all root for whatever they want because it wont affect what actually happens.  If what other people want to happen actually affects your mood...well that is a different problem and I am not going there.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

What we "want" won't make any difference.   Not saying you are saying this...but every year we start to get some posts about now with people who want it to be warm and sunny annoyed at people still rooting for late snow...or people tracking snow annoyed with people who are done and want warmth.  Who cares....they can all root for whatever they want because it wont affect what actually happens.  If what other people want to happen actually affects your mood...well that is a different problem and I am not going there.  

Yeah I have always found this to be one of the oddest things I have observed here over the years.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Won’t matter much.  Even with blocking most days in April will be warm. Maybe we get a few days of 40s but most days will be 50+ early April and 60+ after April 15th even in a -NAO. 

Even when we get snow in April it’s often 50+ the day before and after. Sustained cold is very unlikely. 

50+ in April in DC proper would be considerably below normal. We're in the mid-60s trending toward 70+ on average in April.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

50+ in April in DC proper would be considerably below normal. We're in the mid-60s trending toward 70+ on average in April.

Well yea if we get a -NAO we could get a below avg April but people are acting like it will be a cold miserable month. Maybe a few days tops. But a 55 degree sunny day in April isn’t my idea of suffering or worth obsessively fearing. 

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