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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few times to be honest

18Z GFS now getting on board, to be honest it may end up too far north/rain and given the winter a north trend is certainly possible but as of now most models are agreeing on a snowstorm for interior portions of the subforum

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An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England.

There is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey into southern New England, could see snow early next week. This area has the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty. A light accumulation might even be possible in the Newark-New York City area. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -14.60 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.154.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March.

On March 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.376 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.938.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 70% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

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2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

18Z GFS now getting on board, to be honest it may end up too far north/rain and given the winter a north trend is certainly possible but as of now most models are agreeing on a snowstorm for interior portions of the subforum

You and I and everyone else on this forum knows exactly how this is going to end up. None of you guys are stupid. All the clues are there...It’s Spring...no anomalous arctic airmass in place...no blocking at all....surface high moves east off the coast....fast flow...low doesn’t bomb...the 19-20 winter we just came out of....

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You and I and everyone else on this forum knows exactly how this is going to end up. None of you guys are stupid. All the clues are there...It’s Spring...no anomalous arctic airmass in place...no blocking at all....surface high moves east off the coast....fast flow...low doesn’t bomb...the 19-20 winter we just came out of....

Yea given the winter I certainly wouldn't be surprised if this ends up a complete non event, however the only thing that has me tracking is the Euros consistency 

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I know a lot of people would love snow, but honestly, any snow would be about the last thing we need right now. Let's not hope and wish for snow. We do not need anyone wasting time plowing snow and salting walkways. Our buildings maintenance team is stressed to the max making sure door knobs, elevator buttons, mailboxes, hallways, etc are all disinfected regularly. The last thing they or anyone else needs is to have to add in 'snow removal' to their duties. The growing season has also begun across much of the subform, so we are firmly in spring mode and if ever there was a year to wish for boring weather for awhile, this is it.

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The next 8 days are averaging 49degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.8[48.1].         Should be about +6.5[48.3] by the 28th.

The first 5 days of April look to continue the AN just like March, at +6[55].       At one time it looked like a cold start there.

GFS/EURO up to 1", CMC 5" Snow on the 23rd.   Good Luck.

48* here at 7am.     FOG <0.10 mile.       53* by Noon, clouds         58*  at 1pm.   T fell back to 54* by 3pm, then headed directly for 72* by about 5pm.      Drifted up to 73* around 8pm.

 

So the GFS had this spike pretty close a full 15 days in advance.      Unfortunately it show every possible T in between.

 

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FLASH!     12Z GFS  shows first 80-Degree Day for the 19th!.     Still has some snow near the 12th-13th.       It has 14 of the next 17 days up to at least 50.       The average T for the period 52*[44/59] .

 

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Very foggy this morning here. Driving around at 4:30 am, and at times zero visibility. We're off to the races now. Would not be surprised if we crack 80* today. Currently, we are sitting at 60/58

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13 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I know a lot of people would love snow, but honestly, any snow would be about the last thing we need right now. Let's not hope and wish for snow. We do not need anyone wasting time plowing snow and salting walkways. Our buildings maintenance team is stressed to the max making sure door knobs, elevator buttons, mailboxes, hallways, etc are all disinfected regularly. The last thing they or anyone else needs is to have to add in 'snow removal' to their duties. The growing season has also begun across much of the subform, so we are firmly in spring mode and if ever there was a year to wish for boring weather for awhile, this is it.

A little late March snow wouldn't hurt anything tbh. Roads are empty anyway and it's not going to impact roads much anyway  

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57 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

A little late March snow wouldn't hurt anything tbh. Roads are empty anyway and it's not going to impact roads much anyway  

it's not happening-it's mostly rain now on models

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's not happening-it's mostly rain now on models

Yep its rain for  everyone now. 

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Slight chance of severe weather later this afternoon/evening.

Per NWS OKX:

Attention then turns to the approaching cold front this afternoon
into this evening and an associated line of showers and
thunderstorms. High resolution models are in reasonable
agreement with a broken line of showers and storms crossing the
area between approximately 3pm and 8pm. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe, with the best chances for any
stronger storms across the Lower Hudson Valley, northeast New
Jersey, and into southwest Connecticut, where warmer surface
temperatures will help maximize instability. Damaging wind gusts
are the greatest threat in any stronger storms that are able to
develop, although an isolated tornado isn`t entirely out of the
question. Showers and storms should decrease in intensity as
they approach the coast this evening and encounter more stable
marine air.

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep its rain for  everyone now. 

wow nobody saw that coming

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Temperatures soared to their highest levels since early October. Highs included: New York City: 77° (highest since 79°, 10/7/2019); Newark: 80° (highest since 80°, 10/7/2019); and, Philadelphia: 79° (highest since 82°, 10/7/2019).

In the wake of today's unseasonable warmth, a short push of cold air is likely. As a storm comes eastward late in the weekend, there is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, could see snow early next week. Parts of this highlighted area have the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty.

Initial snowfall estimates include:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 2"-4"
Boston: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 1"-3"
Scranton: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -8.23 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.592.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March.

On March 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.714 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.372.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 72% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

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Only 63 here today, didn’t clear out until almost 4:00, nice finish but absolute garbage for most of the day.

And it’s still 60 right now, where was this energy earlier??? And there’s 70’s just a couple of miles to my west/northwest, wtf.

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65 and rising now, new high for the day. I repeat, where was this earlier?

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8 minutes ago, Cfa said:

65 and rising now, new high for the day. I repeat, where was this earlier?

It was still in the 60's here as late as 3:30pm with a se wind...wind then shifted sw and we soared to 78°.

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Heard my first peepers tonight!  Great way to introduce spring.

That sound is such a calming thing, especially necessary in these times...

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33 minutes ago, Cfa said:

65 and rising now, new high for the day. I repeat, where was this earlier?

Same temp here. Wife just asked me the same question. 

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