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An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England. The closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -21.16 today. That is the lowest SOI value since February 15 when the SOI was -21.95.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.915.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March.

On March 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.310.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 71% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. 

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

they could be worth a lot of money...I remember my first train...it was made by marx...a cheap version of lionel but worth just as much today...

Marx was a good alternative and indeed, sets from our youth are valuable to collectors.  The desire for a set of electric trains by our generation has been replaced by a desire for much different devices today. I remember my first daisy air rifle. In today’s reality that would probably be a Social Services issue. As always.

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The next 8 days are averaging 47.5degs. or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +7.8[48.2].       Should be +6.2[48.0] by 27th.

46* here at 7am.   Was 45* overnight.       44* at 8am.        56* by 2pm.

The last 13 days of March are averaging (06Z, GFS) 51.5[43/60] with No Snow.        March could end at +7.1[49.6] or 4th. Place.  

EURO has 6" of Snow on the 24th.       This should put the virtual snow totals past 100".     lol.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice soaker here-everything greening up fast with all the warmth.

Yeah, I don't care to see any freezing temps going forward, esp down into the 20s. Growing season has progressed too far.

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1 minute ago, dWave said:

Yeah, I don't care to see any freezing temps going forward, esp down into the 20s. Growing season has progressed too far.

Saturday night will be around freezing in the city and 20s in the burbs

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday night will be around freezing in the city and 20s in the burbs

yep quick push of cold/dry air, but  in and out just like all season....

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Saturday night will be around freezing in the city and 20s in the burbs

Yeah, perhaps that will be the last (for the city). Around freezing isnt so bad. keep the 20s to the N&W.  If theres gonna be a hard freeze at this point let it be for something historic. 

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34 minutes ago, dWave said:

Yeah, perhaps that will be the last (for the city). Around freezing isnt so bad. keep the 20s to the N&W.  If theres gonna be a hard freeze at this point let it be for something historic. 

That’s what I’m hoping, I would like to start planting some perennials I have under lights in my shop. So if it’s going to really freeZe let it be with April 82 

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i expect that to disappear in a few days like every other day 5 threat this winter

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47 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

83501AD8-FA99-4D41-BABD-F2C6F18AB024.png

Looks pretty typical for a late March storm where the city gets the shaft. This is definitely possible, we'll see where it's at 12z tomorrow

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

12z Euro has a foot of snow next Tuesday just north of the city....

Eps has a few inches just to the north of NYC 

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8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the ao forecast has many members going negative near the end of the month...just in time for April...

April snowstorm possible ?

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i expect that to disappear in a few days like every other day 5 threat this winter

This will turn into another total non event for the metro area, just like all the others. The setup sucks once again (bad airmass, high moves east off the coast, zero blocking, fast flow, spring) but the same people just keep falling for it over and over, hyping “snowstorm!!!!!!” Just like they’ve been doing since November....fail after fail.....

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This will turn into another total non event for the metro area, just like all the others. The setup sucks once again (bad airmass, high moves east off the coast, zero blocking, fast flow, spring) but the same people just keep falling for it over and over, hyping “snowstorm!!!!!!” Just like they’ve been doing since November....fail after fail.....

When has the Euro had this kind of look under 5 days out since December?

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8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

When has the Euro had this kind of look under 5 days out since December?

A few times to be honest

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