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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

CJ, our local met, just said the coastal is going to slow down the back edge of our precip s eastward progression, even said wraparound for our area!:maprain: what a :weenie:

Thats the idea, looks to maybe be a bit too far east to do too much beyond the enhancement in downeast NC. We will have to see once it develops though. Still some variability and chances for folks for the next 6 hours or so.

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What is this possible pivot you guys are talking about?  Is it something similar to a hurricane wobble?  This pivot is suppose to help snow out east?  Thanks for any clarification :)

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17 minutes ago, goldman75 said:

What is this possible pivot you guys are talking about?  Is it something similar to a hurricane wobble?  This pivot is suppose to help snow out east?  Thanks for any clarification :)

The coastal slp (surface low pressure) will add an eastern component to the air flow for areas north of the slp. That can cause the eastward progression of the precipitation field to slow down, halt, and even fill-in in some cases - resulting in an apparent pivot of the precip shield. This is forecast to be a relatively weak low and developing relatively far off shore, hence why I say it likely will not affect anyone west of say Raleigh imo. 

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It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

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2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

It’s going to snow in eastern N.C. for another 6-8 hours. Lol.

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

It’s going to snow in eastern N.C. for another 6-8 hours. Lol.

I have talked to different folks in the triad, New Bern and Greenville and they are all below expectations. It's too early for a post mortem but I think this storm deserves some studying 

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6 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast.  No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

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8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have talked to different folks in the triad, New Bern and Greenville and they are all below expectations. It's too early for a post mortem but I think this storm deserves some studying 

They already have 2 inches on the ground in Washington, NC.

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Just now, wxdawg10 said:

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast.  No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

Who has 4 inches in the triangle? I havent seen any reports more than 2. I will wait to see complete snow maps once the storm is finished.  

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3 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast.  No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

1-3" sounds more accurate for the Triangle. Actually 1-2" with a few isolated 3".

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9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

1-3" sounds more accurate for the Triangle. Actually 1-2" with a few isolated 3".

Yeah, 1-2" seems accurate for the Triangle. Not sure I've actually seen any 3" reports. I just went for a walk and there's less than an inch in all of my neighborhood near North Hills. It's already melting, too. Flurries falling now. 

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Just now, NCsandhills said:

Yeah, 1-2" seems accurate for the Triangle. Not sure I've actually seen any 3" reports. I just went for a walk and there's less than an inch in all of my neighborhood near North Hills. It's already melting, too. Flurries falling now. 

Probably won't be many areas with an inch left on the ground by daylight tomorrow with the melting going on before the colder air arrives later tonight.

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41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

Too early but you are more right than wrong. Let's see how it plays out but it has been a bust from Edenton through Elizabeth City and up into Hampton Roads. This was a bull's-eye on many models. I suspect someone southeast of Greenville will end up getting four or five inches but that may be max.

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If you compare the ground truth to the official NWS forecasts, the Triad and Triangle got basically what they were supposed to get, though.  Actually, the Triad overperformed a bit, if anything.  It just didn’t meet some of our weenie expectations.  I was expecting 2-4” IMBY and that’s basically what we got (albeit on the lower end).  I thought Raleigh would do a little better, though.

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It's only a novelty at this point, but many of the models are continuing to show an area of light snow developing in Virginia and dropping into the northern Piedmont of NC before 7am. Accumulations look to be light, an inch or less on most of the models, but it's an interesting feature never the less. I have noticed the radar is just now starting to show returns blossoming between Roanoke and Lynchburg so this may be the beginning stages of what the models are showing. I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to stay awake long enough to see how this plays out though. 

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10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It appears this storm will bust low for just about everyone. Places modeled to get 3 to 6 inches in eastern NC are getting half of that at best. Places like Norfolk and VA Beach barely have anything due to Easterly winds off of the ocean. Areas just east of the Blue Ridge got a dusting to an inch and even Asheville and Hendersonville had an inch or less when almost all modeling had them at 2 to 4 inches.

I'm curious as to precip amounts for these areas when all is said and done. Obviously lack of heavy precip hurt many NC areas but toasty boundary level temperatures were equally troublesome. The storm also seemed to be a bit weaker and further south than progged. 

I disagree. Seems to have played out almost exactly as forecast. Lotta 2-3 in reports in the Triangle and 2in reports in Triad. Looks like snow fell all the way into far SE parts of the state. My farm in Louisburg has over 3in on the ground this morning after melting so I bet they had close to 4 in. Looks like a large area of 3-4 in reports East of here, which was right in line with 2-4 in forecast. I saw some 5 in reports sprinkled in. Only thing that didn't happen was a heavy band with 6-8 in lollipops, which I fully expected somewhere east of here, but overall it was well-forecast. 

Places that didn't do as well as forecast look like SE VA and extreme NE NC. CLT was never forecast to get much and same story with the upstate. I can tell you this, if the BL was a couple degrees cooler, this would have been a widespread 4-6 in storm for much of NC. We hit 2.5" and stayed there for 4 hours of steady snow once the heaviest rates moved out. It was just compensating for melting. We finished with around 2.75" depending on where you measure.

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Overall this was just your run of the mill NC snow that you see pretty much every winter. Nothing notable or memorable about this storm. However, I will increase the grade for this winter from an F to a D-.

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Just now, Snownado said:

Overall this was just your run of the mill NC snow that you see pretty much every winter. Nothing notable or memorable about this storm. However, I will increase the grade for this winter from an F to a D-.

Agreed. Just feels good to see snow on the ground. Been Brutal.

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8 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

If you compare the ground truth to the official NWS forecasts, the Triad and Triangle got basically what they were supposed to get, though.  Actually, the Triad overperformed a bit, if anything.  It just didn’t meet some of our weenie expectations.  I was expecting 2-4” IMBY and that’s basically what we got (albeit on the lower end).  I thought Raleigh would do a little better, though.

This system did what I expected here in the Triad.  Wasn’t a blockbuster by any stretch, but it is what it is considering.  I ended up with 2” mostly because the temps were good up this way.  We didn’t have the QPF we needed, but everything that fell was snow from start to finish.  No rain or mixing at all.  The NW Piedmont did overachieve slightly compared to expectations.

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I saw a 2 and 3 inch report from there....yikes. 

What an idiot. He could have drove a similar distance to Minneapolis or buffalo lol

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