One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

[HKY_WX]

I think the one thing that is interesting to note is the HP being configured over the plains generally favors the eastern portion of the state from a CAD perspective. It doesn't funnel the dry air as close to the Apps as well as a banana HP parked over PA. That may be part of the issue for foothills and NW Piedmont from a snow total perspective. 

[downeastnc]

WInd's pick up as the coastal gets cranking and there should still be some good rates going on...

 

 

 

[Tullioz]

I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. 

It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM

[DC2Winston]

Is it just a coincidence that current SE regional radar mosaic mirrors the modeling - showing the lee side precip shadowing in NW piedmont? 

I mean it looks just like the total QPF maps.

[beanskip]

Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment. 

[jjwxman]

Just now, Tullioz said:

I know it's not much, but for those in the Piedmont of NC the a few of the models (GFS, Canadian, UKMET) have been showing a narrow band of light snow moving through from north to south between 1am and 6am Friday morning. This has been showing up for the past few runs and depending on the model looks like it might have the potential to bring an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of snow for those lucky enough to find themselves under it if it were to actually develop. 

It shows up nicely on the latest run of the RGEM

I have seen that as well.  It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well. 

[Billypg70]

9 minutes ago, Tigerchick224 said:

 

Blue Ridge/TR. Not quite north enough to be the mountains, but not Greenville either. I hope you guys will get something soon! It’s crazy how the 850s haven’t present as much of a problem and now it’s a precipitation amount thing. Ahhhh to live east of the mountains.


.

 

Just went to put something in my car and i seen sleet pellets mixed in on top of my car with rain.

I'm in Taylos about 2 miles SE of paris mtn

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, downeastnc said:

WInd's pick up as the coastal gets cranking and there should still be some good rates going on...

 

Yep, I've thought it'll look impressive for y'all for a while tonight. I think you are set for this storm! Makes me miss my time living in Winterville. 

[strongwxnc]

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment. 

Once the radar filled in here is was all snow. 

[HKY_WX]

The GSO 12z sounding has a nice dry layer at from 700mb down to 950mb. THis will likely result in some quick cooling aloft. I think a transition from rain to sleet/snow won't take long once the higher ratest begin this afternoon.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/20022012_OBS/

[HKY_WX]

Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method:

15z HRR = 2.2

12zGFS = 1.8

12zNAM = 3.5

12z RDPS = 5.9

 

Average = 3.3 inches at RDU

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method:

15z HRR = 2.2

12zGFS = 1.8

12zNAM = 3.5

RDPS = 5.9

 

Average = 3.3 inches at RDU

That seems the most likely, since we will need to waste QPF for a change over to snow.

[snowinnc]

45 minutes ago, tazaroo said:

of course I'm on vacation in Cancun and I'm following the weather anyway.  Crazy I know.  I live in Ramseur and still wanting snow when I'm not even there.

We’re in Turks and Caicos but I’m following too!

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

That seems the most likely, since we will need to waste QPF for a change over to snow.

I think the only way we get to the RDPS or higher is if we find ourselves in this banding that will setup tonight. It will likely setup east of Raleigh, but if it were to setup over us, that could be a game changers. This is all due to the PJ wave diving in behind, giving some last minute life to the SLP/atlantic fetch.

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Latest RDU totals via Kuchera Method:

15z HRR = 2.2

12zGFS = 1.8

12zNAM = 3.5

12z RDPS = 5.9

 

Average = 3.3 inches at RDU

 

Any thoughts on the beefing up of totals in the southern coastal plain last few runs? Between Fayetteville and New Bern, totals have doubled on many of the models in the past 6 hours.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Just now, HKY_WX said:

I think the only way we get to the RDPS or higher is if we find ourselves in this banding that will setup tonight. It will likely setup east of Raleigh, but if it were to setup over us, that could be a game changers. This is all due to the PJ wave diving in behind, giving some last minute life to the SLP/atlantic fetch.

Thanks for the information. I am south of Garner, near Clayton. Models appear to have RDU area in at least 3 inches, so who knows.

[HKY_WX]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

 

Any thoughts on the beefing up of totals in the southern coastal plain last few runs? Between Fayetteville and New Bern, totals have doubled on many of the models in the past 6 hours.

I do think there will be some banding setting up after 7PM over the eastern piedmont/coastal plain. I'm just not sure if this sets up over Fayetteville or closer to the Rocky Mount/Greenville area. Or potentially further north towards Elizabeth City.

[Tullioz]

43 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I have seen that as well.  It's a long shot, but If it does happen the ratios would be much higher then as well. 

It's a long shot for sure and the area that would be affected extremely small geographically, but it could very well be the highlight of this event for some if it does in fact materialize with gusty winds and the higher ratios at the time it moves through. The latest run of the Canadian has a little over an inch of snow falling in the Greensboro area between 1am and 7am. 

 

[olafminesaw]

Radar is starting to fill the dry slot (albeit slowly). I think we can definitely pull off 1-2", 3" if the costal component gets going early enough

[Upstate Tiger]

I don't get some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth.  Radar returns west all the way into Ms. look pretty robust.  I suppose the orientation and movement could result in some down-sloping.  But I am just glad to have something to track after this crappy winter.  Two weeks ago at this time we were hunkered down in the Emergency Operations Center with an EF2 tornado on the ground in the southern part of the county headed our way.  It's sleeting outside now.  Quite a difference.  No complaints here......yet   

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

I don't get some of the wailing and gnashing of teeth.  Radar returns west all the way into Ms. look pretty robust.  I suppose the orientation and movement could result in some down-sloping.  But I am just glad to have something to track after this crappy winter.  Two weeks ago at this time we were hunkered down in the Emergency Operations Center with an EF2 tornado on the ground in the southern part of the county headed our way.  It's sleeting outside now.  Quite a difference.  No complaints here......yet   

Yeah I don't get the lack of moisture complaints. I haven't seen any sleet, and cold is certainly an issue, but there's plenty of precip.  For those lucky enough to have the cold, you'll be fine. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah I don't get the lack of moisture complaints. I haven't seen any sleet, and cold is certainly an issue, but there's plenty of precip.  For those lucky enough to have the cold, you'll be fine. 

I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning

[gman]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning

I'm certainly no expert, but at this point, isn't what is falling out of the sky and the radar more of an indicator than the models? 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I think it's mainly driven by watching the NAM nail us run after run. Did a lot to raise expectations. The reality is this has looked like a 1-3" event with some upside potential since Tuesday morning

EXACTLY. My only disappointment was this may not turn into the higher end weenie storm. This is still going to be a good snow for much of the state and I think every county will see flakes. That's pretty rare! If we get 2" in Raleigh I'll be happy. 4" and I'll be ecstatic. Those are my thresholds here for the storm. I think everything is on track for the forecast.

[wake4est]

First precip just began here in Holly Springs and it started as sleet with no rain mixed in.

[SnowDawg]

Just saw a video from one of the high rise buildings in Atlanta with flakes mixed in to the rain. Pretty cool, but also kind of a kick in the face sitting here in the Mtns watching it rain lol

[Lookout]

the new hrrr is now showing that band of snow now across the southern upstate/midlands. I find this rather impressive given it's surface warm bias which skews against it's snow forecasts. Only reason this might work out is flow in the mid levels is out of the northeast instead of north or northwest..in which case there would be no chance at all. 

 

[Bryan63]

Sleeting in Garner! 

[StantonParkHoya]

HRRR really ramping up snowfall in SENC:

 

 

 

[flair_2000]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

HRRR really ramping up snowfall in SENC:

 

 

 

That's gotta be painful to see for the folks in the downslope screw zone.