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Snowstorms

Feb 12-13 Snowstorm

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22 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

I think you're going to be as good if not better than me.  The modeled warm nose is right on our doorstep but its been consistently on our doorstep the last 24 hours instead of pushing all the way to the MI border as they've modeled the past couple systems.   Hey it's not a big dog but I'll take a jacked up :weenie: dog this season lol.  I also think we could be in for an inch of icing on the cake if we can get a french tickler off the lake late Thursday.  Hell if the weather channel can do it I'll go out on a limb a name this storm :weenie: storm Jackstraw lol. 

Right. I’m about 25 miles north of I-70. Riding the lightning.

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

I have a hard time believing 6-8" for Indy with marginal temps. Going to be too much mixing. Does anyone on here think any of the Indy metro has a shot at 6-8" ?

I wouldn't bet on it.  I wouldn't bet on my call of 6-7.  I do think there's a 50/50 chance that northern Marion county could over perform the forecast.  I'm just not that sold on the warm nose with this system.

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

:lol:

Joke of a storm. We'll be lucky to get an inch out of this now. 

Been a while since we've seen a nice storm (>8") that wasn't a clipper or had mixing issues. 

January 2019, no?

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Like 30 hours of snow with little to show for it on the NAM

so what happend to it?

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2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

January 2019, no?

Robust clipper with some lake enhancement. Was referring to non-clippers. 

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2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

At 18 on the NAM you can see a scenario were this becomes a respectable storm but instead everything de-amplifies and shears east.

All has to do with that strung out southern wave.

We were concerned about the northern wave early on, and in the end it's the southern wave preventing a more organized system.

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Just now, Snowstorms said:

Robust clipper with some lake enhancement. Was referring to non-clippers. 

I have to say, it doesn't really matter that much to me if a 1 foot+ storm comes from a moisture-laden gulf low or a clipper + enhancement.

Not that I don't appreciate bomb-like storms, but lack thereof wouldn't be too much of a source of complaints from moi.  But to each their own.

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Is it just me, or does the 00Z NAM have less moisture stripping away from convection down south.  Seems like a much healthier DEFORMATION band setting up.  

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4 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Is it just me, or does the 00Z NAM have less moisture stripping away from convection down south.  Seems like a much healthier DEFORMATION band setting up.  

Sure had that look. But totals definitely didn't reflect it

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

All has to do with that strung out southern wave.

We were concerned about the northern wave early on, and in the end it's the southern wave preventing a more organized system.

I think north is an issue too.  That lobe swinging around the base of the PV near Hudson Bay is too progressive. If it retrograded, or was even just slower progressing, it might have given the southern wave a chance to go neutral and amplify the sfc low.  Instead it just speeds off and washes everything to its south away too.

If only we could draw these maps.

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

I have a hard time believing 6-8" for Indy with marginal temps. Going to be too much mixing. Does anyone on here think any of the Indy metro has a shot at 6-8" ?

Unfortunately I think that Euro map is going to bust for Indy.  Everything would have to go perfectly... not only getting all snow, but would need temps to cool off to around freezing quickly enough so that not much is wasted.  One or both of the factors of precip type and marginal temps look to be a concern for the Indy area.  If anybody has a shot at getting around 6", it would probably be up toward LAF/OKK but I am not really convinced of it there either.  

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12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I have to say, it doesn't really matter that much to me if a 1 foot+ storm comes from a moisture-laden gulf low or a clipper + enhancement.

Not that I don't appreciate bomb-like storms, but lack thereof wouldn't be too much of a source of complaints from moi.  But to each their own.

Fair point. Tbh, I appreciate any storm that helps us reach our seasonal average. 

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54 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I think north is an issue too.  That lobe swinging around the base of the PV near Hudson Bay is too progressive. If it retrograded, or was even just slower progressing, it might have given the southern wave a chance to go neutral and amplify the sfc low.  Instead it just speeds off and washes everything to its south away too.

If only we could draw these maps.

Living just south of Hamilton will allow me a greater chance to sneak in a slightly better snowfall. We still have snow on the 95% of the ground so even 5cm to refresh the snow pack before -20C temperatures comes helps. 

How much of the ground is covered in Toronto? 

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2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Living just south of Hamilton will allow me a greater chance to sneak in a slightly better snowfall. We still have snow on the 95% of the ground so even 5cm to refresh the snow pack before -20C temperatures comes helps. 

How much of the ground is covered in Toronto? 

~2" (5cm) give or take. 

Latest RDPS has ~3" for Hamilton. Wouldn't expect anything more given recent trends. Heaviest precip will be south of Hamilton and with some lingering dry air, I'd lean closer to 2" for now. 

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36 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

People have short memories when it comes to weather. In late January 2019, my area of Toronto received over a foot of snow.

Right? One of the best snowstorms of my life, for all intents and purposes it was a blizzard. Strong winds, 6-12" across NW Ohio and roads closed for 36 hours. Saturday snowstorm, and the roads were not drivable until Tuesday really

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