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Snowstorms

Feb 12-13 Snowstorm

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I was gonna start this tomorrow.

Threat is dead now.


.

:lol:

We'll revisit this Feb 14 and consider the next steps. 

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This looks like a pretty solid hit and unlike this last Wednesday this system is going to be under a process of strengthening. Kind of reminds me of the system back in mid January in that regard.

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51 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Long range NAM doesn’t look terrible for much of central/N IL when you think about how awful this season has been

GFS still saying a hard pass. Euro has been pretty consistent. Curious to see if it holds or caves

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Will be nice to get the current storm out of the way but this 24 hr period pretty much fits it in

sn10_024h.us_mw.thumb.png.1060570426407966a1fbe9b18a4b7806.png

CMI 1-2” snowfalling it’s way to an average snowfall season. 

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This period actually features the most favorable pattern for a good storm we’ve had pretty much all season.

-EPO/-PNA in play, but the fact we will dealing with northern and southern stream could still mess things up.

Would be unfortunate if the best pattern of the season only lead to a swath of 3-6” snowfall at maximum.


.

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^

at some point you would think this two year pattern of weak sheared events that fade as they get near would end........maybe this is the pattern breaker. Got to end at some point.

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3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

DAB-.  Northern fringe of the DAB+. 

I am confused here.  If Alek has DAB+ and you have DAB-, would that put the regular DAB around Algonquin to Highland Park?

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Cautiously optimistic pattern wise. I’ve seen worse looks this season. 

 

Also, I’m traveling on the 13th. So naturally this will happen and probably be big. :facepalm:

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am confused here.  If Alek has DAB+ and you have DAB-, would that put the regular DAB around Algonquin to Highland Park?

Narrow band 

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Models all over the place. 18z nam has one piece of energy miss me to the south mostly and another to the north. Lol classic. Euro seems to be the only one spinning up something more significant. It has been remarkably consistent though. The 12z cmc was pretty similar to euro though

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The 18z NAM is...not want you want to see if you want a big storm :yikes:

Usual caveats of the NAM at the end of its range apply, but still not a good look.

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1 hour ago, geddyweather said:

Cautiously optimistic pattern wise. I’ve seen worse looks this season. 

 

Also, I’m traveling on the 13th. So naturally this will happen and probably be big. :facepalm:

Also traveling, though I leave on Wednesday morning. Ergo, will be big and I’ll miss the only legit event of the season. 

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As Joe noted the phasing of this system is what will make or break it. My concern is the northern stream being quicker and suppressing this into a sheared out mess. That said the Euro has been very consistent on timing and this isn't that far away either.

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